Let's talk about the other side for awhile. What does Brownback dropping out mean to the GOP primary

[SteppingRazor]

As I see it, this can only help an already-ascendant Mike Huckabee, as would-be Brownback voters go to the next-available-Jesus-freak. Does this give Huck the votes needed to swing into second place in Iowa?

For what it's worth, I think a Huckabee nomination would be utterly horrifying. He's got lots of charisma (people just seem to like him), and he negates the possibility of the religious right going third party or, at the very least, not showing up to the polls.

Your thoughts?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. It Means His Small Band Of Supporters Will Go To Huckleberry

eom

[SteppingRazor]

3. Yeah, I think the same, but what does that mean for Huck?

Did Brownback have enough of a following that it'll help Huckabee?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Probably Not

eom

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

16. Brownback's last polling numbers were 1% nationally

Outside of the Great Plains states, I doubt many voters have ever heard of Sam Brownback, much less knew that he was running. It might give him a bump in Iowa (Brownback + Huckabee > Guiliani) but he still won't be within shouting distance of Romney.

[BridgeTheGap]

2. One less repub asshole makes no difference

If the "public" doesn't get what the repubs are about by now, they may never get it.

[SteppingRazor]

7. I've said it many times before, and I'll probably say it many times more...

the public doesn't know politics like you and me.


The public thinks there are plenty of decent Republicans who have the best interest of the country at heart. The public is not comfortable with the idea of an entire political party of corrupt, weird, amoral power junkies with gallons of hate in their gall bladders and the sort of political will that puts them somewhere between Machiavelli and Mussolini. The vast majority of the voting public couldn't even tell you how many people are running to be president, much less their names. And they sure as shit don't believe that the GOP is entirely peopled with degenerates, the power-mad, and the batshit-insane.

[jmp]

4. It means that Huckabee doubled his base of support ...

To 2%. :P

[SteppingRazor]

9. Bwahaha!

Good point.

I will say, though, that a recent Iowa poll had Huck in third place, running 18 points to Thompson's 19.
Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/republican_iowa_caucus

Which means that the Brownback vote could swing him into second place behind Romney. Of course, one can't have a lot of faith in Iowa polls, the whole caucus thing being a little tough to predict, but it still has to make you wonder.

[MuseRider]

6. For us here in Kansas

it means a Republican governor I fear. :puke: I don't think I can take it.

[SteppingRazor]

10. I think it's a pretty good shot that Sebelius and Brownback will wind up switching places. n/t

[MuseRider]

17. Me too.

This is serious bad for us with the State Congress like it is. I am afraid we have not seen anything yet in regards to a theocratic mess here. We only thought we were the butt of a lot of jokes before. It would be nice to have Kathleen as a Senator though.

[MonkeyFunk]

8. I've said all along

that Huckabee is the one long-shot in the Republican field with a chance.

I think a strong second-place showing by him in one of the early contests will propel him into the top tier.

If he manages to do that, i think he's got a lot of advantages over Giuliani and Romney. I wouldn't count him out.

[SteppingRazor]

12. Which is bad for us, because as I alluded to in my OP...

I think Giuliani or Romney could actually be easier to beat than Huckabee in the general.

[MonkeyFunk]

14. I agree with that

I think Huckabee would be a very appealing candidate for a lot of voters.

[skipos]

19. Economic conservatives hate him, and his fundraising has been horrible

Go over to freeperland and see what they say about Huckabee, it isn't nice.
Hucklebee will definitely appeal to the people who only want a president who talks about Jesus, but after the last few years of Bush, many people are going to find that unappealing.

There were some old polls with both Clark and Clinton beating Huckabee in Arkansas, which shows what the people who know him best think of him.

[TwilightGardener]

11. Huck would be a fantasy opponent. Two words--Wayne Dumond.

Besides, he's said so many stupid things, I couldn't list them all--but since he hasn't had any scrutiny, no one seems to be aware of just how dumb and fucked-up the guy is. But rest assured, Hillary would have a full arsenal at her disposal. Worse would be to face Mittens, Rudy or McCain--those three each have their trademark accomplishments: Romney "turned around" the Olympics, Rudy = 9/11, McCain is a war hero and very knowledgeable about military/foreign policy. Huck's big accomplishment was...weight loss. Plus, for all of their idiocy, Romney, Rudy, and McCain are savvier and more careful campaigners, and any dirt on them is largely known by now--nothing the Dems will use against them in 2008 will have much shock value anymore.

[SteppingRazor]

13. What about the religious right's contention that it'll go third party...

with a Rudy nomination? Is that just the usual hot air?

[TwilightGardener]

20. I can't remember which talking head said this on TV (Richard Wolfe?), but

I agree: The whole point of threatening Rudy about a third party is simply a way to reassert the fundie's power, and to influence the discourse in the fundies' favor--it's a way to force Rudy, or WHOEVER gets the nom, to pay attention to the religious right and force the candidate to make concessions to their cause. They're feeling marginalized--they know Chimpy used them to get elected and then didn't make any real progress in terms of championing their causes. The religious right is no more powerful under the current administration (the whole "faith-based" deal was BS) than they were under Clinton, I'm willing to bet. They're just trying to move the discourse, and the promises, in their direction and keep themselves relevant. There won't be a religious third party. Here's something else to consider: the religious right could have backed Huckabee or Brownback a long time ago, ESPECIALLY with campaign donations--they didn't. He's not a fiscal conservative, and he's kind of hinky in terms of electability, and the fundies know it. They want to back a winner (Rudy or Romney) and extract promises from them at the same time. That's what's going on.

[Yael]

15. Huckabee's numbers were very high amongst the Faux crowd last night

[skipos]

18. And Ron Paul's where higher. It doesn't mean much. nt