Flashback 2004: "It’s still very much his race to lose at this point."

[zulchzulu]

Whenever I see headlines saying that the race is someone's "race to lose at this point", I think of all the frontrunners in many of the elections with 20+% leads in national polls even weeks before the first votes are counted. They didn't last.

Here's one flashback:

JUMPING OFF THE BANDWAGON
James Joyner | Friday, January 16, 2004
The media herd effect is a wonderful sight to behold. For weeks now, virtually everyone with a column or a regular television talking head gig has treated the nomination of Howard Dean as the Democrat’s presidential nominee as a foregone conclusion. Now, with just one poll–with a large margin of error–in a state with a caucus rather than a primary, everyone is now sounding his death knell.

Much more analysis at that time:
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2004/01/jumping_off_the_bandwagon/

Even George Will was predicting Dean's apparent and inevitable victory:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4155/is_20031113/ai_n12523166

[DemFemme]

1. Resistance. Is. Not. Futile.

How quickly we forget. Thanks for the reminder that anything can happen. Historically, Democratic
frontrunners have rarely won the nomination.

[robcon]

2. I agree it was Dean's nom to lose.. And he lost it .

Dean's campaign self-destructed.

It seems to be Clinton's nomination to lose, and she'll probably win unless she screws up like Dean did.