Biden is on a roll - - - the ONLY candidate showing POSITIVE momentum in the polls. . .

[Faryn Balyncd]

While Clinton & Romney retain pluralities in each of these early state polls, the real story is in the details.

Click on the actual trending monthly poll results from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

In EACH of these states, Clinton support has plateaued at between 41 and 32%.

Obama support peaked in July in New Hampshire & South Carolina, and has suffered significant declines since. His polling in Iowa has been more erratic, but as of October was at 22%, 2 points down from his high in September, and 1 point down from his earlier high in February.

Edwards, regardless of how well he performs in general election polls against Giuliani or other Republicans, and despite strong progressive conviction shown in debates, has sufferred significant declines in ALL 3 EARLY STATES.

Richardson, who a few months ago threatened to emerge from the second tier and challenge the front-runners with his unequivocal antiwar message, has seen his numbers regress, placing him solidly back again in the second tier.

Only Biden shows strong positive momentum.

While still in the 4, 5 and 6% range, his 300% gain puts Biden's support higher than John Kerry's 3% in the fall of 2003.

And momemtum from a candidate whose presidential bearing is backed up by solid foreign policy experience, judgment, and progressive values, and who recently put together perhaps the only bi-partisan consensus that improves the prospects of an actual withdrawal of American troops, cannot be dismissed.

While some in Congress seem determined to fold, Biden's conviction has strengthened. His eloquence in opposing Kyl-Lieberman was inspiring.

As the time shortens for successfully putting together a consensus candidate who will strongly repudiate the GOP policies of unending war, the assault on the constitution, and the corporatist decimation of the middle class, only ONE CANDIDATE is showing the momentum indicating the strength to succeed - Joe Biden.









http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/10/arg-polls-early-states-romney-and.html









(He may even pick up the support of some independents and a digruntled Republican or two.)

[bdamomma]

1. I really believe this man should not be kicked to the curb.

He would hit the ground running and this is what exactly what we need. He talked about Pakistan in the time he had on the debate, quick concise and accurate information. They are all good candidates, but Biden knows what he is talking about, plus this would shake up alot of people, especially the media, cause we know they won't be able to tarnish his record!!!

[Sparkly]

2. Good to see.

He's done well in the debates, especially this week's.

[Faryn Balyncd]

3. How do you think he would do in a debate with Giuliani or Romney?

[daninthemoon]

4. I think he would dominate either one.

[Sparkly]

5. H2S was just saying how great he'd be against Giuliani

and I agreed.

I think he'd do well against Romney, too -- but hopefully, any of them would. I liked the way Obama singled him out this week. But Biden's comments about Giuliani were priceless.

[NCarolinawoman]

7. Biden has that "humor" thing going on.

This can be devastating in a debate. That's what Reagan used.

Also, he has just the right amount of machismo to neutralize all that tough talk that Republicans like to use. We wouldn't have the problem of, "Who will make us safer?"

I hate to even bring this up, but he would pass the, "who would you most like to have a beer with?" test. (Let's hope the press has forgotten about that one.)

[Cameron27]

21. I love his humor,

he always gets the best laugh in the debates. He would be devastating to the wingnuts in the general.

[Think82]

12. He would annihilate them. He has unimpeachable foreign policy creds, which is the only reason the

Republicans could possibly win in 08, by using hte "fear" card that they are tougher (even though us rational dems know that is not true). No one is tougher than Biden.

[Faryn Balyncd]

14. As Hagel said, "The GOP Has Won 2 Elections On...Fear And Terrorism...& (will) Try Again"

GOP Senator Hagel: "The Republican Party Has Won Two Elections On...Fear And Terrorism... Going To Try Again"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/09/24/gop-senator-hagel-the-r_n_65593.html

[renegade000]

6. kick n/t

[Alexander]

8. Senator Hairplugs will put his foot in his mouth again...

And torpedo his own candidacy once again.

Biden's worst flaw is that he shoots his mouth off. That will get him in trouble.

[mrigirl]

10. Alexander- why must you always be so negative?

Don't you want a Dem in office? Someone that can actually beat the Republican nominee hands down and we don't have to worry about it? Don't you even agree just a little bit that Biden is an expert on foreign policy and would make this country a hell of alot safer for us and our children? I don't understand that if you are a true Democrat how you could not support a candidate who's so obviously for the American people. And will keep our civil freedoms intact. And restore our good faith in our nation. Who do you support?

[Alexander]

22. I'm actually pretty positive. I just don't like Biden.

He voted for the IWR and the MBNA bill, excluded witnesses from the Anita Hill hearings, plagiarized no less than twice in his career, and he's a drug warrior to boot.

I'm not too keen on his plan for Iraq, either.

[creeksneakers2]

15. I think Biden is remarkably gaffe free

Joe Biden went on 4,031 Sunday morning talks shows and never had a serious gaffe. Biden really blew it when he said Obama was clean but other than that I think he's mistake free.

[goclark]

17. He made another slip the other day

I'm African American and I like Biden.

I think he is smart and looks Presidential -- but he does put his foot in his mouth.

[gateley]

20. Hairplugs. Gee, that's a new one, not to mention a valid reason to dismiss him

as a viable candidate. :eyes:

[Alexander]

23. All in good fun, gateley! My preferred candidate (Gore) has baldness as well.

That being said, I think Biden's plan for division of Iraq into three different administrative zones is also a disastrous idea that will invite a Turkish invasion of Kurdistan.

What do you think?

[iverglas]

27. well, you didn't ask me

but I think his proposal for Iraq demonstrates a grasp of the reality of the world outside the US, something usually in too short supply inside the US. And that describing his proposal as "three administrative zones" is just a tad unrepresentative of what it is.

I know that the US defines itself as a federal system, but the underpinnings are entirely different from a federal system based on the presence of more than one people, rather than a bunch of squabbling élites as there were at the origins of the US system. I think it would be wrong to think of the proposal for Iraq as having much in common with the US model, as "administrative zones" implies.

The proposal is much more on the model of Canada or Belgium, where there truly are more than one people seeking an arrangement for cohabitation, not just a bunch of squabbling élites as there were when the US was founded. Both Canada and Belgium have their problems, and Iraq undoubtedly will too; the degree of autonomy that a people needs / is entitled to, in order to exercise self-determination within a federation, is always a subject of disagreement.

The proposal calls for the UN to support the federal project in Iraq. Obviously, this would involve defending all of its parts against outside aggression, and deterring such aggression by appropriate means.

The thread at DU in which I proposed a federal system in Iraq on the Belgian or Canadian model (they differ in the kind of autonomy the constituent peoples have, and Belgium's system is of course much more complex and sophisticated than could be implemented in Iraq at present) has gone into a black hole, it was so long ago. I'm happy to see some US legislators catching up.

[Alexander]

30. But I enjoyed the answer.

"I think it would be wrong to think of the proposal for Iraq as having much in common with the US model, as "administrative zones" implies."

Really? I thought the word "states" would imply it was like the US.

That being said, I do like your ideas based on the Belgian and Canadian models. But how do you address the possibility of Turkey invading the Kurdish region?

[Think82]

33. A Kurdish State within a country called Iraq is better for both Iraq and Turkey.

It is a far better option than Iraq completely disintegrating into chaos. An agreement with the neighbors of Iraq is also a key element in the Biden Plan. DO you honestly think Biden has not considered this?

[Alexander]

34. My question is, wouldn't that state be likely to break off from Iraq?

Because of the heavy presence of Kurds in eastern Turkey.

[iverglas]

36. there ya go

Really? I thought the word "states" would imply it was like the US.

People in the US are often confused about the meaning of "state".

Sometimes the word "state" is used to refer to a division of a larger state. Australia is a state. It also has states. The US itself is a state, in international law, and is composed of states. Canada is a state, and has provinces, and also more than one people within its borders. (So does the US, in that the indigenous peoples are peoples, it just doesn't acknowledge them as such, at least to the same extent.)

There are many models of federal systems. The US is one. Belgium is another. Iraq's would have its own characteristics.

The competing interests are always the right to self-determination of peoples and the need for stable and secure states. Fracturing the global map into states (in the international law sense: sovereign political entities) based on peoples would be impossible, not just loony; because there are so many cohabiting peoples, it couldn't be done without huge population transfers, or national minorities being created in just about every new state, thus defeating the point of the exercise.

Federal states based on separate "administrative units" where there are strong geographic associations between peoples and territories, or based on complex jurisdictional arrangements within a single territory where cohabiting peoples are not geographically separate, can be stable, but can also be unstable. They can also be secure, or insecure.

Internally, stability often depends on the internal willingness to accommodate, where there are historically disadvantaged national minorities and longstanding resentments especially. Externally, much may depend on what interest other states have in ensuring that a secure state continues to exist.

The interests of any state that might threaten that security would also be a question. Does Turkey have an interest in not attempting to annex or otherwise threaten the sovereignty of a Kurdish section of Iraq? One would think so, in view of its efforts to gain recognition as a partner on the world scene. How much provocation should or would it be expected to tolerate? What interest would Kurds in Iraq have in not provoking it, and what interest could they be persuaded to see in that? How much would the international community tolerate in terms of actions by either side that could destabilize Iraq, or threaten Turkey's security, before either throwing up their hands or intervening?

Obviously, all the aid that can be offered should be offered -- not just money and physical infrastructure assistance, but governmental infrastructure assistance. This is what Canada does a lot, and does well. We focus on the rule of law: training lawyers and judges, supporting groups in civil society to increase public participation in public decision-making, thus combating corruption, the bane of many emerging states and often the biggest threat to stability.

Here's an example in the Balkans:
http://www.wusc.ca/en/overseas/me_europe/balkans_civildeploy
(World University Services Canada -- we tend to operate small projects, using international development organizations here and partnering with NGOs in the countries where the project is delivered, under the umbrella of the Canadian International Development Agency, roughly equivalent to USAid, in Canada, and the government of the country where the project is delivered.)

The CCDP achieves results by identifying qualified, experienced Canadian civilians whose skills, work ethic and passion equip them to contribute to their partner agencies' goals. These Canadians are appreciated by their colleagues in the Balkans for their professionalism, hard work, non-judgmental attitude, mentorship, and understanding of how multiculturalism can work successfully.

Two Canadians currently making a difference through the CCDP are:

* Mike Perisic, an IT expert from Ottawa, who is currently advising BiH's Judiciary Information and Communications Technology Project. This project aims to computerize and link all aspects of the country's judicial system.
* Jade Duchesneau-Bernier, from Moncton, just completed an assignment as a Democratization Officer in Kosovo. She worked with Bridges of Friendship, a project that was created to encourage more citizen participation in government decision-making processes.

Recently, the project's flexible and innovative nature has attracted the interest of CIDA's Iraq Task Force. Although WUSC will not send Canadian civilians into Iraq under current conditions, we have recruited experts in public policy reform and accountability for assignments with the Jordan-based United Nations Development Program Iraq. They are contributing to efforts to help Iraq rebuild its government structures and processes.

That's the kind of assistance Iraq will need internally. Externally -- a whole lot of international pressure on both parties to any potential Kurdish-Turkish conflict is what will likely be needed. There just is no easy solution when recognized international boundaries divide an historic people who then become a national minority on both sides of the line, usually an oppressed minority. Maybe Turkey can be urged to consider some sort of federal arrangement with its Kurdish minority ... which could increase its security, but possibly decrease its stability ...

Who do you think I am, anyhow, Joe Biden?!

;)

[gateley]

28. Okay, I'll remove the pins from my Alexander VooDoo doll. I honestly don't

know what the effects of the zones in Iraq would be. Biden has even said IF it doesn't work, we'll yank all the troops out.

My support is that it is a plan - a nuts and bolts plan that would get us MOVING toward an end to our occupation of Iraq. The number of those in the senate - who understand it far better than I - would indicate that it's a viable plan worth pursuing.

Many of the Iraqi leaders (who also know better than I) also agree with it.

I DO know that both Iraq and Turkey consider the PKK a terrorist group. As I understand it, Turkey isn't going after Iraq, per se, but the PKK organization.

[Alexander]

31. Okay, I'll buy that...

However, I was still curious about how this proposal would effect the dynamics with Turkey's Kurdish population in the east. Would they demand to join Iraq? Their own autonomy?

[gateley]

32. It's a dicey situation, to be sure.

Would the Turkish Kurds even WANT to join Iraq? Do they consider Turky or Iraq their home? Could they remain in Turkey if they wanted to? All questions I don't have the answers to - how could I possibly know? Not sure if anyone could say for certain what the outcome would be.

If people don't think Biden's plan would work, they PLEASE come up with another approach - we haven't even ATTEMPTED anything and continue on with 'business as usual'.

Do you have another approach that you think might work? Seriously.

[rucky]

26. Name one candidate who hasn't. n/t

[IndianaGreen]

29. Biden has been very self-disciplined this campaign season

In fact, he is the one that has been the least verbose of all the candidates.

[mrigirl]

9. Finally! Some much deserved recognition.

I have been supporting Biden since last year and honestly it seemed quite dismal that he would ever move up in the polls. Finally, with some decent media coverage Democrats are finally starting to catch on that Biden is the right choice . Every single aspect of his campaign he has nailed down and has the answer to. He already has plans to fix homeland security, Iraq, etc and do it on a budget. Biden can get us out of this deep hole Bush has put our country into. No other candidate is stronger. His campaign is gaining momentum and come January he just may surprise us all!

[saltpoint]

11. Quite true on Biden's rise in polling. He hovered around 1% in the summer

polls and is now moving up on the scale.

Agree with you also that the foreign policy expertise is definitely a plus for his candidacy.

Iowa Democrats will have a lot to say about whether the Biden campaign does well. We're two months & two days away from that caucus vote.

I'm calling Joe Biden as one of the top three finishers in very close bunched-up differentials, along with John Edwards and Barack Obama, with Sen. Clinton fourth and Gov. Richardson fifth.

[bigdarryl]

13. 26 thru 29th of Oct was when these polls were done that was before the debate

[creeksneakers2]

16. Biden would make an excellent nominee

Little noticed is that while Biden voted for IWR he did much behind the scenes to limit the scope of the resolution in exchange for that vote.

[justinrr1]

18. Keep It Going Joe

You are our best chance and the general and definitely the most qualified to be president.

[KittyWampus]

24. If you can point me in the right direction at more info regarding that work, I'd be obliged.

[Laurab]

19. I'm happy to see this.

I must say, it's taking longer than I thought, but I've believed he deserved to be doing much better than the polling showed, and I hope he becomes a serious contender. I truly believe that out of all the candidates, Biden has the most experience, the most common sense, and even the likeability or "have a beer with" personality, that someone mentioned above.

Yes, he may have the old foot-in-mouth disease sometimes, but I don't seem him pander, or bullshit people, nearly as much as some of the others. He has angered me a few times in the past, with his eloquent speeches, and then going and voting the opposite way, but I think he would make a very good CIC.

[rucky]

25. He's the one to watch! n/t

[youthere]

35. kicking