Obama's Red State Appeal

[Genevieve]

It seems a lot of Republicans took to heart Obama's statement in his rousing speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention that "there is not a liberal America and a conservative America - there is the United States of America." And with polls showing Obama still trailing Clinton and supporters urging him to become more aggressive in attacking the frontrunner, his non-partisan appeal could be a useful rallying cry as Iowa and New Hampshire fast approach. Already, the campaign uses his electability as a defense when things don't go their way. Last Wednesday, when the former first lady won the endorsement of the powerful Association of Federal, State and Municipal Employees Union - which has more than 30,000 members in Iowa - Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded with this: "It is a bit surprising that the union probably most concerned with state and local election results would support the candidate with the likeliest least appeal in red states. When Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, he will not only win the presidency but his appeal to Republicans and Independents will lift down-ballot candidates all across the country."

Even some former Bush supporters and advisers are Obama converts. Three former major fundraisers for the President have given money to Obama. One of them, James Canning, a Chicago financier, is openly supporting Obama after he grew tired of what he calls the GOP's "Neanderthal positions on things like stem cell research and global warming." Mark McKinnon, Bush's chief media consultant during both of his presidential campaigns, has warned his clients - including Senator John McCain - that if Obama wins the Democratic nomination McKinnon won't work against him in the general election. And Matthew Dowd, Bush's former top political strategist, told the New York Times that the only candidate that appeals to him this cycle in either party is Obama.

"I don't think Oklahoma has seen this kind of enthusiasm for a Democrat since Bobby Kennedy,'' marveled Lisa Pryor, chairwoman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, who is not endorsing a candidate, after an Obama rally in Oklahoma City in March that drew more than 1,000 people - each of whom paid $25 to get in, and handed over their contact information. "He could be the first Democrat to win Oklahoma since LBJ."

The demand for Obama in conservative states is a testament to his rock star status, a term he loathes for its implication that he's all style and no substance. But it may be the very fact that many voters don't yet know that much about the specifics of his politics that is sustaining his level of cross-party support. "I'm not seeing any pretty clear matches for me in the Republican crop," said Filipi, a lifelong Republican who founded "Nebraskans for Obama" on the Internet. "The last few years I've really had to settle on who I've voted for. I haven't been inspired. I'm not sure Obama's that person either but he's the closest I've come to getting inspired in years.

Link to entire article: "http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20071106/us_time/obamasredstateappeal

[rinsd]

1. What red state appeal? He gets crushed in GE matchups in red states

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/3/10473/6060

[Genevieve]

2. beats me --

i was quite surprised -- that's why I posted the article.

[geek tragedy]

3. September? Survey USA?

This is November, and SurveyUsa ain't all that.

[Genevieve]

4. Thanks - i didnt even notice that. nt

[rinsd]

5. GE matchups have been fairly stable in the last 2 months.

[Stop Cornyn]

6. Obama wins more than Hillary in purple state head-to-head matches

Quinnipiac national numbers (with the responses divided among Red, Blue, and swing Purple states):
If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were {name} the Democrat and {name} the Republican, for whom would you vote? (asked of Red state voters, Blue state voters, and Purple swing state voters)

Red - Blue - Purple
44% - 52% - 43% --- Clinton
46% - 40% - 43% --- Giuliani

39% - 47% - 42% --- Obama
45% - 40% - 41% --- Giuliani

42% - 45% - 42% --- Edwards
42% - 43% - 40% --- Giuliani

44% - 52% - 45% --- Clinton
45% - 39% - 40% --- McCain

38% - 49% - 42% --- Obama
44% - 34% - 39% --- McCain

43% - 47% - 45% --- Edwards
40% - 36% - 36% --- McCain

45% - 58% - 47% --- Clinton
42% - 32% - 39% --- Thompson

41% - 56% - 44% --- Obama
38% - 28% - 36% --- Thompson

44% - 55% - 48% --- Edwards
36% - 27% - 33% --- Thompson

Among Red state voters, Hillary loses to Giuliani and McCain and beats Thompson by only 3%. Even among Purple state voters, Hillary doesn't beat Giuliani.

Obama does the same as Hillary in Red states, but at least he beats Giuliani in Purple states.

Only Edwards beats McCain and Thompson and ties Giuliani in red states, and beats all three soundly in purple states.

[Capn Sunshine]

7. Ah yes.... Quinnipiac

One of the only polling organizations not running Mark Penn authored push polls.

[rinsd]

10. Great.

Because the Q poll shows Hillary protecting the NorthEast flank while with Rudy in the game vs. Edwards & Obama NJ, PA and NY are up for grabs.

[rinsd]

8. Clinton outperforms Obama in Red & Blue states and is about even in purple states.

That Edwards barely beats Rudy in Blue States is incredible.

[Stop Cornyn]

11. But she LOSES red states against leading Repubs and loses purple states to Giuliani. Obama at least

beats Giuliani in purple states.

[rinsd]

12. She TIES Rudy in the purple states with Obama up 1.

This is a first where a DUer is disputing their own post.

[Tejanocrat]

13. You're right. Edwards does MUCH better than Hillary, and Obama's does better but only within the

margin of error.

I guess we'll have to go with Edwards then.

[rinsd]

15. Edwards does not fare well vs. Rudy.

[Bluebear]

9. I'm sure his 'Embrace the Change!' tour attracted some conservative votes down there.

Ducky.

[TwilightGardener]

14. Obama would do surprisingly well in Nebraska.

[ClarkUSA]

16. I didn't know that Obama has the most liberal voting record of all the candidates.

"In fact, Obama's voting record is the most liberal of any candidate, according to a National Journal analysis. Obama's score of
84.3% in the Journal's ratings formula, tops even that of Representative Dennis Kucinich, who was considered the most liberal
Democratic presidential candidate in 2004."

I like the fact that moderate perceptions of Obama do not match the liberal reality. He reminds me of Wes Clark in that way.
We'll need a candidate who has long coattails in purple/red states to usher in a strong majority in Congress.

[illinoisprogressive]

17. Obama does very well with red state people. they like him because they feel

he will bring the country together and gives those he disagrees with like republicans the respect of listening to them and not make them feel the enemy.
There are many republicans, moderate, who are so sick of the divisiveness and know we are facing huge problems and need to repair the relationship with each other first.