Anyone see a realistic scenario where their candidate wins the nom. after finishing 4th in Iowa?

[Czolgosz]

If so, please share.

Otherwise, is there a consensus that no one who finishes 4th or worse in Iowa cannot win the nomination?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I Guess It's Likely That Only Three Viable Candidates Come Out Of Iowa

That's the conventional widsom...

[geek tragedy]

2. If Biden shows a strong 4th, he could grab

a bunch of independents in NH due to the 'surprise' effect.

But, that's pretty far-fetched.

[Stop Cornyn]

4. But how would Biden coming in 4th be a surprise? Aren't Biden and Richardson equally likely for 4th?

[geek tragedy]

6. I think Richardson is widely viewed as #4. n/t

[On the Road]

3. Actually I Wouldn't Say That

Regional differences are too strong to make that generalization.

The implication is that if one of the lower tier candidates places third, whichever Top 3 candidate is bumped is out of the running. Or, if none of the lower tier candidates does, they are all eliminated.

There are just too many possibilites to conclude that.

[Apollo11]

5. Not sure if it's realistic, but Hillary 25, Obama 21, Edwards 20, Biden 19.

Then Biden would need to win the New Hampshire primary.

Not that Biden is my candidate necessarily. I am keeping an open mind.

[tekisui]

7. 4th in Iowa

I think a fouth place finish in Iowa with the delegates spread widely; a winner and 3 at 20+% would leave for 4 viable candidates.

I think this primary is not going to be a sweeping snowball effect, but rather a close contest until mid-Feb.

50% of the delegates chose on Feb 5th and 9th.

That is a lot to be tossed around at one time. Anything could happen.

[smheart78]

8. Consensus is the top 3

But I have also heard a strong case for Biden if he finishes 4th. (If he finishes 2 or 3 in Iowa the case is much stronger for him to win the nomination). This is because of the strong independent vote he should garner that aren't being polled.
If any of the current front-runners finish 4th, they could still do OK except for Clinton. The only question would be in NH as they Edwards or Obama would need to draw a huge SC win.

SO if:

Edwards or Obama or Biden get 4th in Iowa
they would need a 2nd in NH- at least, which is still very likely
and a huge blow-out win in South Carolina.

Does this win or will it make it go into the Super Tuesday Feb. 5th?
In which case...Money and name recognition may win out?

[Stop Cornyn]

9. Why would "independents" in New Hampshire favor Biden over Edwards or Richardson or Obama?

Biden and Dodd have been in the Senate for over three decades, and have been Democrats the whole time.

Leave aside Biden's views on abortion and bankruptcy, and he's pretty much a party line guy.

How is that appealing to independents in New Hampshire?

Obama is a new face who has not be co-opted by the process, Edwards is trying to pull the party in a new more populist direction, and Richardson defies the straight-party-line with his views (he's very pro-NRA and anti-federal-habeas-corpus in death-penalty cases).

I'd think any of these three would appeal more to independents in New Hampshire than Biden. What am I missing?