CBS: 3 top Dems now in dead heat in Iowa!

[Liberty Belle]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/13/opinion/polls/main3497993.shtml

Hilary's lead is now statistically insignificant: 25% Clinton, 23% Edwards, 22% Obama.

Perhaps the 80-page Plan for One America handed out by Edwards to Iowa delegates yesterday had something to do with his sudden rise, along with his strong boots-on-the-ground presence. Obama also released detailed policy plans in the past couple of days.

Apparently, Iowa voters like what they're seeing in the challengers, and may be less than enchanted with Hilary's Iran vote and other recent stances.

[papau]

1. the 15% rule means all polls are pointless - it can't be predicted. n/t

[CalebHayes]

2. Although i have never heard of the rule, I agree

It seems to be the case

[Bicoastal]

3. What about the 5 second rule?

That when a politican's poll numbers drop, they won't become unsanitary if picked up fast enough?













:silly:

[papau]

7. I like it - but to make it conform to food - if picked up before the dog gets it ! :-)

[nealmhughes]

14. 5 secs, huh? In the Navy it was the 30 sec rule, and on subs, the "whenever" rule!

In my house, no food is safe for 5 secs. with a voracious 3 month old huskie lurking and 2 JRTs! I doubt a slice of onion could last more than 2 seconds.

[papau]

19. LOL = I love dogs as clean up grew - they are so focused! :-)

:-)

[goodhue]

4. good to know

eom

[MLFerrell]

5. I hate Clin-ton, but polls are bullshit. n/t

[Ninga]

6. The Iowa polls are as close to the "real time" opinions as can possibly be.

[Debi]

18. Not when the poll questions are slanted and all the candidates aren't

listed in all the questions of the poll.

This poll is garbage.

[wyldwolf]

8. "now" in dead heat in Iowa? It's been locked for months

[Ninga]

10. There is movement in Iowa, and it is reflected in Edwards moving into 2nd.

Remember, he has been outspent by 300%.....and has been able to move up.


It it a testimony to his message, focus, and ability.

[wyldwolf]

11. irrlevant to the point that Iowa is "now" tied.

Aside from one or two outlier polls, Iowa has been a dead heat for months.

[Ninga]

13. Win, place and show.......right now, "place" gets you more at the window. I call that

movement.

[rinsd]

16. Yup...here's the last 7 polls + RCP's average

Poll	                  Date	      Sample	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson Biden Spread
RCP Average	        10/17 - 11/12	-	28.6	24.6	19.8	8.4	4.4	Clinton +4.0
Strategic Vision (R)	11/09 - 11/12	600 LV	29	27	20	7	5	Clinton +2.0
CBS News/NY Times	11/02 - 11/12	319 LV	25	22	23	12	4	Clinton +2.0
Zogby	                11/06 - 11/06	502 LV	28	25	21	9	3	Clinton +3.0
American Res. Group	10/26 - 10/29	600 LV	32	22	15	7	5	Clinton +10.0
Univ. of Iowa	        10/17 - 10/24	306 LV	29	27	20	7	5	Clinton +2.0
Strategic Vision (R)	10/12 - 10/14	600 LV	28	23	20	9	6	Clinton +5.0
Rasmussen	        10/10 - 10/14	1007 LV	33	21	22	7	4	Clinton +11.0
Des Moines Register	10/01 - 10/03	399 LV	29	22	23	8	5	Clinton +6.0

[Apollo11]

9. Am I the only one wishing I lived in Iowa?

It looks like the caucuses will be a real fight to the death! B-)

[Cameron27]

12. You're not alone,

it seems like the one place where your vote has tremendous power.

[rinsd]

15. Umm what sudden rise? This was CBS's first Iowa poll.

"Apparently, Iowa voters like what they're seeing in the challengers, and may be less than enchanted with Hilary's Iran vote and other recent stances."

Yes, which is why they have her in 1st place. That makes sense :eyes:

[Debi]

17. This poll sucks.

several of the questions actually only ask about Clinton/Edwards/Obama/(and sometimes Richardson).

What kind of a poll excludes 1/2 the candidates and then proclaims the only three they asked about are the top three??

On edit:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_111307.pdf

Seriously, this is one of the questions:


Second Choice

On the night of the Iowa caucuses, a candidate usually needs to meet a 15% threshold of attendees in a local caucus to be eligible for delegates. If a candidate does not meet that threshold, those supporters will then have to realign themselves at the caucus; either with another candidate or an uncommitted group.

Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel have the backing of fewer than 15% of likely caucus-goers statewide. Among those candidates’ supporters combined, 30% choose Edwards as their second choice, 27% pick Obama, while only 14% choose Clinton.

CHOICE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION – 2nd CHOICE
(Among candidate choices with less than 15% support)
Edwards 30%
Obama 27
Clinton 14

++++++

What the poll doesn't show is that if say, Dodd and Biden are non-viable the two groups could join together to make one of them viable. AND the poll doesn't even consider that in some areas 'The Big Three' may not all be viable...who will the second choice of the caucus-goer be then?

What crap.

++++++++

[Didereaux]

20. this poll is within 2% of the same poll in September...only change was...

undecideds went from 14% down to 12% and Biden and Richardson each picked up a couple. Gist of it is that the top three had no movement from the September poll. Ocotbers poll showed a Clinton bump and an Obama fall, both changes disappeared in November.

I suggest you hopefuls, and you chicken littles really ought to look at the trends over weeks and months if you are going to get yourself worked up to an endorphin fed frenzy!