Primary timeline!

[UrbScotty]

1/19
Iowa:
34% and the bulk of the delegates
31% and a few delegates
19%
10%
Others 6%

1/27
New Hampshire:
42% and all of the delegates
31%
22%
Others 7%

This is seen as a loss for , because he was supposed to won by 15-20% or so. He blames it on his cockiness, and promises to “wake up” in time for February 3.

After miserable showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and both drop out and endorse . drops out and endorses Kerry.

2/3
Arizona:
42% and all of the delegates
22%
19%
15%
Others 2%

Delaware:
53% and all of the delegates
17%
16%
11%
Others 3%

Missouri:
39% and most of the delegates
37% and the rest of the delegates
14%
9%
Others 1%

New Mexico:
47% and all of the delegates
31%
14%
6%
Others 2%

North Dakota:
61% and all of the delegates
14%
11%
11%
Others 3%

Oklahoma:
36% and most of the delegates
30% and the remaining delegates
23%
9%
Others 2%

South Carolina:
29% and some of the delegates
28%, but he actually gets more delegates than Dean
22% and the rest of the delegates
9%
5%
4%
2% (from absentee ballots, plus a few write-ins)
Others (mainly write-in) 1%

Despite a higher-than-expected showing in South Carolina, drops out and endorses . is seen as the new anti- .

2/7

Michigan (Go Blue!):
35% and most of the delegates
31% and some of the delegates
16% and a few delegates
9%
6%
Others 3%

State of Washington:
55% and all of the delegates
34%
8%
Others 3%

After relatively weak showings in Michigan, especially in the Detroit area, drops out and endorses and endorses

2/8

Maine:
57% and all of the delegates
32%
9%
Other 2%

Realizing that , not himself, is the anti- , endorses and again (surprise) calls unelectable.

HERE WE GO! CLARK vs. DEAN!

2/10

Tennessee:
54% and most of the delegates
43% and the remaining delegates
Others 3%

Virginia:
51% and most of the delegates
47% and the remaining delegates
Others 2%

2/13

Friday the Thirteenth

2/14

DC:
64% and all of the delegates
32%
Others 4%

Nevada:
58% and most of the delegates
39% and the remaining delegates
Others 3%

Note that Nevada has a strong military presence, so Clark will be popular there.

2/17

Wisconsin:
62% and most of the delegates
34% and the remaining delegates
Others 4%

2/24

Hawaii:
52% and all of the delegates
44%
Others 4%

Idaho:
58% and most of the delegates
40% and the remaining delegates
Others 2%

Utah:
53% and most of the delegates
42% and the remaining delegates
Others 5%

Utah also has a military presence.

3/2—Super Tuesday:

Kollyfournya:
56% and most of the delegates
41% and the remaining delegates
Others 2%

Connecticut
59% and all of the delegates
37%
Others 4%

This is seen as the downfall of Lieberman’s career, since the candidate he endorsed got trounced.

Georgia:
50% and most of the delegates
46% and the remaining delegates
Others 2%

Guess who receives .3% of the vote as a write-in candidate? Here’s a hint: His first name starts with a ‘Z.’

Maryland:
65% and all of the delegates
31%
Others 4%

Massachusetts:
53% and most of the delegates
45% and the remaining delegates
Others 2%

Kerry’s endorsement certainly helped Clark, didn’t it?

Minnesota:
58% and all of the delegates
39%
Others 2%

New York:
53% and most of the delegates
45% and the remaining delegates
Others 2%

New York is seen as the battleground state of Super Tuesday. With Dean’s victory there, the pundits will basically declare the race over and call Dean the winner, even though Dean has yet to actually get the majority of delegates to the Convention.

Ohio:
56% and most of the delegates
40% and the remaining delegates
Others 4%

Rhode Island:
69% and all of the delegates
28%
Others 3%

Vermont
81% and all of the delegates
17%
Others 2%

Clark exits

3/9

With no more official opposition, Former Vermont Governor Howard Brush III, once thought of as an unknown governor of a small state, secures the 2004 :dem: nomination for forty-fourth .

[mikehiggins]

1. Okay, I guess, except towards the end

The part that says "Clark exits"?

Not going to happen until the convention is over.

Its all guess work, of course, but that is a given. I think you are way too optimistic as to Dean's fortunes but what is the point of arguing that?

One thing I can argue, however, is that Clark would rather be beaten than quit. As long as there is any chance to win he'll stay in the fight. Unless Dean has enough delegates won in primaries to win the nomination before the convention Clark is going to stick it out.

Hey, at least he'll get a good seat at the convention, and most likely a shot at making a speech.

On the other hand, if Dean doesn't WIN a clear majority of delegates the anti-Dean forces can easily claim he's another Bush; failed to get the majority of the votes but taking the prize because of the intervention of others, in this case the superdelegates.

What happens then is anyone's guess but I'm semi-convinced, as I've said maybe a dozen times allready, that if Dean doesn't have the thing won when he walks into that convention I doubt he'll leave the hall with the nomination.

Lets just see how it plays out.

[Atlant]

5. There's a point...

> The part that says "Clark exits"?
>
> Not going to happen until the convention is over.

Numerically, at some point, it won't matter whether he "exits"
or "is exited", the game WILL be over because enough
delegates will have been selected and enough superdelegates
will have declared their allegiances.

Atlant

[mikehiggins]

11. Beleive me when I tell you

Dean cannot rely on superdelegates, some of whom he has called cockroaches and some he has just dismissed as the establishment that has to be replaced.

The only way Dean can be sure of winning is having enough delegates committed to him via primaries to take the nomination on the first ballot.

A commitment by a superdelegate is worth the air its written on.

They will always come up with a good reason to justify whatever it is that they do, but the bottom line is that if they don't think Dean can beat Bush in November, he'd better not need any of their votes to get the nomination.

[mikehiggins]

2. Is there a listing of which states have "winner take all" contests

and which ones do not? I thought all primaries were proportional above a cutoff number. Where can I get accurate information on this question?

[OKNancy]

8. NONE have winner take all!

I quit reading after the poster said, " ALL of the delegates.
This just goes to show that some people just don't know how the Democratic party rules work.

All delegates in Primary states are selected on a proportional basis, for those above 15%.

[mikehiggins]

10. Thank you

That was my impression as well but then I thought, well maybe some states do and some states don't. In that case the "tallies" were out of line, and the sequence of "dropouts" won't hold either.

[janx]

3. This is cool! Thanks for posting. Fun to read...

.

[Toucano]

4. This is fun.

You spent a lot of time on it so thanks.

Are you really sure Sharpton will endorse Dean? I don't know about that...:)

[Atlant]

6. Based on their public demeanor toward each other...

> Are you really sure Sharpton will endorse Dean?

Based on their public demeanor toward each other, I think
this is quite likely at some point, probably post-Kucinich.

Atlant

[mikehiggins]

12. Possibly you missed the discussion

where Sharpton took Dean to task for his support of things that Sharpton considered harmful to minorities in this country?

In all the debates it was the only time I heard Sharpton harshly critical of anyone on the Democratic side.

[Atlant]

13. Nope -- didn't miss it.

"Taking someone to task" doesn't mean you won't still
end up endorsing them.

Atlant

[Padraig18]

15. I also saw him give Gov. Dean a hug after the debate.

And the two of them laughing together. I think Al could come on board.

[Jerseycoa]

14. I'm not seeing this, either nt

[Padraig18]

7. A fun read!

A bit optimistic, I think, but fun nonetheless. :)

[OKNancy]

9. All that work, and for nothing

The premise is all wrong.
THere are no winner take all primaries.
If a candidate gets 50% of the vote, they get 50% of the available delegates.

If Dean gets 50% of New Hampshire - he gets 16/17 delegates
If Clark gets 50% of Oklahoma - he gets 30 delegates.

[catherineD]

16. Once Clark starts getting same publicity as Dean, he moves into lead

Much of Dean's numbers at the moment are based on people having heard of him. That's how much they (aren't) paying attention. As southern Dems pay attention to the race, they won't be voting Dean.

I also like to think that as Clark is known to be a brilliant strategist, he's got things all worked out.

And I notice you didn't handicap the general election, but stopped at the nomination? Finding it hard to imagine Dean actually winning over Bush, huh?

[ThirdWheelLegend]

17. wrong...several issues..re: your assumptions on Kucinich

1)Kucinich will do much better than you "believe".

2)Kucinich is in this until the convention. Unlike most of the other candidates. He is not playing politician. He is doing this for the people of the United States and the world.

3)Kucinich would not endorse Dean, Dean has LIED about Kucinich's stance on the war and Dean has arrogantly dismissed Kucinich as an opponent. Early on Dean, for personal gain, rode the elevator of the building that Kucinich built. Anyway according to your "time line", if Kucinich dropped out with Sharpton still in the race, Kucinich would endorse Sharpton.


TWL