WaPost Poll: Obama Leads Iowa with 30% of vote

[NOVA_Dem]

I just heard on Tweety's show!
Edit: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111900940.html?hpid=topnews

[elizm]

1. Just heard it too and let out a holler!

Obama is on the move....I KNEW it. And at 30%!!! :bounce:

[NOVA_Dem]

4. I knew it was just a matter of time before the effects of...

Obama's JJ speech were seen in IA polls.

[Tellurian]

10. In the National Polls Obama and Edwards have dropped..

Most likely because of their unmitigated attacks and negative campaigning starting to take a toll on their numbers.

11/19/07

Rasmussen Daily Poll


Clinton....41%


Obama....24%


Edwards...13%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[Capn Sunshine]

12. Off Topic

who knows what the Penn organization is asking in those national polls.anyway.
Stick to the subject at hand.

[BeyondGeography]

13. B-b-b-b-but look at my beautiful national polls everyone

:rofl:

Get ready for a long night of ridicule if you keep pushing that angle. Those Rasputin numbers aren't going to help you in Iowa.

[NOVA_Dem]

14. In the states where all 3 are actively campaigning...

the numbers look nothing like that.

[Tellurian]

15. And after this episode with the elderly Iowa Woman..Obama will tank!

The WaPo Poll was taken last week before the debate.

The a moe= +-5

Not an accurate picture considering the questions and the small sampling.

[NOVA_Dem]

17. I know you hope that happens but when a woman sounds....

like a RW plant attacking Obama on security and getting rids of "the illegals" I don't think that will be all that beneficial to Hillary in a Dem primary.

[Tellurian]

24. If Obama had the right skills he could have subdued that woman and taken control.

She was asking him several questions at once He could have taken apart her long diatribe and broken it down one by one instead of going all out, losing his temper racing to the end with one answer and treating the woman like an idiot.

The speaker has to control the crowd not the other way around.

Hillary did an admirable job with a heckler at the Environmental discussion. She asked him point blank, "had he been invited to speak?" He was promptly hauled out of the room. This old lady was asking a legitimate question. The fact is, Obama blew a chance to shine. He should have been able to convince this lady to vote for him. That is the precise reason she was there..

[Tellurian]

25. No, I don't hope it will happen..I KNOW it will happen!

[Phunktified]

20. Poll take Nov. 14-18

Thats two nights before the debate and two after. And the debate was watched by a large number of people, apparently around 4 million + followed by a couple days of rather negative press for Obama. Also, ABC, in their only previous Iowa poll taken in July, showed Obama with a 1 point lead. Not that it means much, but clearly their methodology favors Obama. Plenty of other polls were out last week before the debate that showed Hillary still ahead, albeit narrowly.

[Tellurian]

26. Obama gave Hillary a great boost today..

I'm sure this lady will tell all her friends about Obama's Politics of Hope, and his loose cannon approach!

[gmudem]

38. Wow are you serious?

I think this "incident" if you can call it that will have absolutely zero affect on the polls. Do you really think people will choose not to support Obama because of a stupid thing like this?

Give it a rest, Hillary is slipping and everybody knows it.

[tammywammy]

40. Well, I hope that she does tell all her friends, since she thinks he did "a good job."

"After the event, Svoboda told a gaggle of press that the candidate didn’t answer all of her questions and that he didn’t have the experience to be president. No Democrat running, in Svoboda’s opinion, has strong national security credentials. But, she applauded him at the event’s conclusion and said he did “a good job.”"

http://cameron.blogs.foxnews.com/2007/11/19/obama-takes-the-tough-questions/

[Tellurian]

55. Obama never answered her Questions..

Not one out of three. Obama does get the award for being the biggest Bull-Shitter, though! huzzah!

Why would I want someone as a president because he can tell me a story about George Bush's War?

Something, I already know.

The woman asked 3 questions:

1. "How are you SPECIFICALLY going to protect the country?"

2. "How are you going to CLOSE the Borders?"

3. "How are you going to deal with ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS?"

Here is the Video Fox conveniently left out of their video..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty6krf18huA

[tammywammy]

62. But in the end she says that he "did a good job"

That's what she'll tell people.

[Tellurian]

64. If she hasn't figued it out by now...we'll remind her..

It's important to know the truth, unless you prefer living a LIE!

[tammywammy]

67. Well, according to news reports

She doesn't think any democrat is strong enough on these matters. And she's not participating in the caucus. I doubt in the general she'll be voting for a democrat anyways.

[Tellurian]

70. Obama is a dolt. How in the world could he make anyone feel secure?

Michelle is the man of the house.

[Beaverhausen]

21. Elderly? she looked to be all of 50 years old

boy, you are getting desperate now. Give it up.

[MethuenProgressive]

45. To Obama, that's elderly. He says we don't count, remember?

[Windy]

39. Really, is the clinton campaign that desparate?

Is the alack of confidence that the American public will vote for her on the issues? Why is it necessary to resort to attack politics? Is this sort of inexcusable behavior going to continue now that Obama is surging?

If the hillary people keep doing this sort of thing they will shoot themselves in the foot. We the people are SICK of rovian tricks. Please Mrs. Clinton, sick to the issues and if you can't, withdraw your candidacy!

[jackbourassa]

52. I'VE SAID IT BEFORE AND WILL SAY IT AGAIN.....

National polls are completely meaningless. Why because there IS NO NATIONAL PRIMARY!!!

There are only state primaries and if Obama wins the first one, it might turn into an avalanche of support if 2004 is anything to go by.

This is great news for Obama.

Also, don't forget the fact that if Edwards loses in Iowa, he will pull out and will probably endorse Obama over Hillary.

[calteacherguy]

63. Who cares? Iowa and NH are what matter now, especially Iowa!

[Adelante]

2. OMG

YES!!

[DemKR]

3. OMG one poll!

1) we don't even know if it was taken before his attack dog style political show in the debates
2) check the averages of all polls taken. There's no evidence that this is yet a trend.

[BeyondGeography]

7. It's called the Jefferson-Jackson bounce

Iowans don't care about a cluster-fuck of a debate in Las Vegas (where Obama was anything but an attack dog, BTW).

[Adelante]

18. .

[MethuenProgressive]

42. Even dead cats bounce.

Not much, but a little.

[Perky]

5. I hope he does not peak too early.

I am a supporter.... but this may be a few weeks too soon. AS Long as Edwards keep hammering Hillary its all good.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

65. I don't think this is the peak

[ellisonz]

6. OBAMA ROCKS!

:headbang:

[neutron]

8. Edwards will have to re-direct his smear campaign

[rufus dog]

9. I think you want to hit a peak this week

Get everyone together at Thanksgiving talking. Remember the "Terror Alerts" always used before Holidays to maximize the talk. He needs a peak this week and a peak just before Christmas.

[Basileus Basileon]

11. Glad to hear it. Obama's probably my favorite of the top three.

[itsrobert]

16. And...

That gap helps explain Clinton's recent push to get voters to show up on caucus night (including a lively "caucusing is easy" video featuring former Pres. Bill Clinton and a juicy hamburger) and also illustrates why Edwards, with his cadre of experienced caucusgoers, remains a formidable threat.

[Vinca]

19. I still suspect Obama's numbers are low because they don't poll

cell phone users. On the opposite side, I think Ron Paul's numbers are low. The first votes are going to be really interesting.

[SaveElmer]

22. We'll see if this is confirmed in others...buut what will be really interesting...

Is seeing heretofore Poll skeptics start to defend this poll...

[K Gardner]

23. Yes, but Chris had changed his mind at the time..

..and was giving Obama some good press/air time. And we all know the polls rise and fall by the Grace of Matthews. Also, as he so proficiently pointed out, this poll was taken during the two weeks that "Hillary had lost her MoJo" and before the CNN Debate, when she so clearly "got her MoJo back".

I'm so freakin sick of these corporate shills trying to drive polls, explain polls, drive their own agenda.. I really pray the people in Iowa are tuning them out. I still point to the last Iowa Independent Poll of a few days ago that showed Edwards ahead. Who knows how many caucus-goers have even made up their mind whether they're even "caucusing" or not...

[mzmolly]

27. Wow.

Things are getting very interestink!

[smalll]

28. Remember though, Iowa was never part of the narrative of inevitability.

She has been on top of the polls there only recently (2 months or so, not much more I don't think.) She could drop down again at this point, not win Iowa in a month and a half, and still get the nomination pretty easily. Of course, she will fight for Iowa, and still very much might win it. But Iowa was never necessary for inevitability - it's just that if she DOES win Iowa, it closes the door on the campaign in the very first day of voting.

[K Gardner]

29. Correct..Bill lost Iowa and NH & still won in 92..n/t

[THUNDER HANDS]

34. you're kidding yourself if you think Iowa isn't crucial

whoever wins Iowa is winning the nomination.

Why do you think other states wanted to jump Iowa in the primary process?

[K Gardner]

35. I'm not trying to kid anybody.. never said Iowa wasn't crucial..

I just stated a FACT about the 1992 primary. Everyone knows the caucuses are important, but as the other poster said, it doesn't make the nomination inevitable.

If Iowa makes the nomination a done deal, why are we bothering to do the rest of them? Or is this year just different?

[THUNDER HANDS]

36. I think everything past Iowa is irrelevant

which is why I believe in a national primary.

In our media age, week-by-week primaries are antiquated.

[ellisonz]

37. I believe the schedule has been compressed since then.

[K Gardner]

51. Compressed is an understatement ! LOL...

I'm surprised we just don't start the primaries the day after Inauguration :-)

[Debi]

46. Bill skipped Iowa in 1992 because Iowa's favorite son Tom Harkin was running n/t

[jenmito]

30. Plus he's winning for 2nd choice, too. AND, people prefer change to experience 55%-33%!

!!! :D

[jenmito]

31. And he's tied with Hillary in IA among women!

:D

[calteacherguy]

32. That's a great accomplishment.

Good for him.

[jenmito]

41. It sure is. She used to be way ahead. Looks like people are starting to see the Clintons' true

colors (or remembering them) and getting turned off, thankfully.

[hulklogan]

33. And 70% of the voters in Iowa don't want him. n/t

[jenmito]

43. Not true if you add 2nd choice voters. And you know how caucuses work, right? n/t

[MethuenProgressive]

44. Math Rocks!!

"Woo Hoo, 7 out of 10 people don'r support my candidate!!"
:rofl:

[hulklogan]

48. Leave it to the obamabots to rejoice a 30% nt

[Colobo]

53. Obama will whoop Clinton, and that's the bottom line.

[jenmito]

49. Not if you add 2nd choice votes. Also, the math shows 7.4 out of 10 people don't support Hillary!

7.4>7.0 :rofl:

[killbotfactory]

61. Dang

My ignore file is getting huge.

[obamian]

47. You got to sign up for Obama Mobile. I got a text message telling me about this poll.

[jefferson_dem]

50. It's a beautiful thing!

Give Dems a real choice...and they'll do the right thing!

Time to reject the tired old politics of Clinton-Chimpy-Clinton. :bounce:

[Colobo]

54. Clinton-Chimpy-OBAMA!

:bounce:

[Tellurian]

56. Obama is a World Class Bull-Shitter..

he sounds like a used Car Salesman.

here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3739148&mesg_id=3740455

[jefferson_dem]

58. You're still doing the bidding for that rightwing talking point wielding freeper-woman?

Yuk!

Why would you even do that? Do you also think Democrats won't keep us safe from "Terrists"?

[Tellurian]

59. "To thine own self be true!" Otherwise, you are lost!

Here are two sequenced post read the first.

The second post explains the first, if you still don't understand the cover-up

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3739148&mesg_id=3740455

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3740068&mesg_id=3740519

[BeyondGeography]

57. Earth to HillBill: I still believe in a place called Nope

:bounce:

[Tellurian]

60. Sorry, we'll bring the Truth to you whether you like it or not!

[TeamJordan23]

68. And the people of Iowa will bring the truth to your campaign

NH, SC, and others will than follow. Get ready for it!

[Tellurian]

69. ***yawn***

[ellisonz]

66. Chimpy Sr., Clinton, Chimpy Jr., Obama!

[Nimrod2005]

71. Way to go Senator!!!