Win, Lose or Draw, Edwards Will Have The Most Influence On This Primary

[THUNDER HANDS]

He's the one person in position to determine the ultimate outcome of this race.

He, more than anyone else, needs to win Iowa to be president.

If he doesn't win Iowa, his chances are doomed. He won't have enough money to go much further if he doesn't place first, or a close, impressive second.

Providing he doesn't do that, then he could arguable be in a better ultimate position for himself than either Clinton or Obama to secure a spot in the White House come '09.

The thinking is this...

Edwards fails to win Iowa, comes in third behind Clinton and Obama, get something like 18% of the vote there.

That 18% will be much greater than the distance between Clinton and Obama.

It's at this point Edwards has a choice to make.

He can continue to run, gambling on some miracle to take place in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Or he can cut a deal.

And there's two possible deals he could make, depending on who he cuts them with.

If he wants to deal with Clinton, he could say to her "look, if you make me your vice president, I'll drop out, endorse you, and have my supporters go towards you before South Carolina, which will be a more vulnerable state for you than New Hampshire when going up against Obama."

Or, and this is the more likely scenario -- if he wanted to deal with Obama, he could say to him "hey, I hate Hillary as much as you do. This is what I'll do for you, I'll drop out, throw my support behind you, and you can have my 18% (or whatever the figure is) and use it against her. In return, I want to be Attorney General.

Either way, he'd tip the balance in one favor or the other.

Now, why would he ask for a VP slot with one candidate and an AG slot with another? Because there's no way he'd be Obama's VP. Neither one has foreign policy experience, and Edwards doesn't balance Obama well.

Plus, it would be a move Clinton would only make if she were truly threatened by Obama, if he runs one or two points behind her in both Iowa or New Hampshire - or wins one or both. She'd see his momentum building and would need a desperation move at that point. He'd have more leverage against her than he would Obama, so he could ask for more than just an AG spot.

And between Clinton and Obama, it's more likely Hillary would pull off a move like that if it were close, because this is her one and only opportunity to be president. If she can't get through the primary this time, it's not likely voters will think much differently of her four or eight years from now.

But Obama can be patient. He's got time on his side. He's more likely to turn up in 2012 or 2016 then she is. The sense of desperation won't envelope him like it will the Clinton team.

So even if he doesn't win the nomination, Edwards can still have the most influence on this election year by being king-maker (or queen-maker).

My money is on king-maker.

[Lucinda]

1. That sort of presumes that Iowans are sheeple.

It may happen along the lines you have laid out, but I certainly wouldn't vote for someone just because my candidate dropped out and supported someone else.

You couldn't pay me to vote for one of the candidates currently running in the primary.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. well, that's not the point

the point is the candidate who's dropping out, in this case Edwards, would turn over the information they have on their supporters so then the other candidate could start contacting Edwards supporters for money, support, votes, ect.

It's not automatic, but if Edwards endorsement can get 60% of his supporters toward one candidate or the other, than that could have influence.

[Lucinda]

5. No I agree with your premise as far as the "possiblities" go, I just

don't see them, as a bloc, giving up their own second choices. If my number once choice tanked or withdrew for some reason, I'd move on to my own number two selection, not someone else's recommendation.

Although my view may not be the "norm"...

[robinlynne]

11. Edwards supporters are not going for HIllary. Hopefully Edwards wouldn't do it either.

[PresidentObama]

2. K&R

[bunnies]

4. I simply cant imagine Edwards aligning with Clinton...

under any circumstance.

edit: spelling

[Adelante]

6. One thing, in South Carolina

Edwards doesn't seem to have much juice there. Clinton is leading Edwards among whites 40-17 and Obama among blacks. So it wouldn't be a promise that means much should Edwards drop out before SC.

[surfermaw]

7. Don't believe all you hear

[Adelante]

8. I know his campaign doesn't accept it

But current projections are what they are until they change.

White S.C. Democrats pick Clinton instead of Edwards


According to the most recent Winthrop/ETV poll, 40 percent of white Democrats in South Carolina who say they are likely to cast a ballot in January’s primary are supporting U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

A distant second is former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina with 17 percent support. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama from Illinois is in third with 11 percent among white Democrats.

-snip

Others attribute Clinton’s S.C. lead among white votes to Edwards’ loss of those voters - a claim Edwards’ campaign denies.

“I find it hard to believe that voters in South Carolina give more of their dollars to John Edwards than any other Democrat, see him campaigning here more than any other Democrat, hear him talk about his life here and the need to reverse decades of poor trade deals that have hurt their state, and then decide to support the senator from New York,” said Teresa Wells, Edward’s spokeswoman. “That is just not happening.”

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/politics/story/255090.html

[tritsofme]

9. Edwards can never again be the Democratic VP nominee

The media would laugh him off the ticket as our perennial VP candidate.

Not too mention running as VP means you have to take the position of your #1 guy, and in this case he could end up on the trail saying things in sharp contrast to what he said as Kerry's VP, the RW would basically have a field day with it.

Attorney General for Edwards? I don't really want an out and out partisan in that position, let alone giving the position away solely for political brinkmanship.

As far as Edwards' political future goes, I think its Iowa or bust, run the table or go home.

[Reno.Muse]

10. The man has a conscience

[weeve]

12. The best deal to be cut ...

... would be for Edwards to offer Al Gore the VP slot, with free reign to manage the global Environmental crisis with the FULL backing of Edward's administration. That my friends, would change everything.

[cali]

13. and it would never happen

why on earth would Gore take it? He spent 8 years as vp. there' no indication whatsoever that he wants to spend another 4 to 8 in that position. He had an excellent shot at the presidency and you think he turned away from that just to accept a vp slot? Not to mention that he's already made a committment.

[dmosh42]

14. Bill Clinton only had half his numbers at this time during his campaign..

This post is about hoping Edwards withdraws. I see Edwards as the 'alternative candidate' to the corporation candidates. He is our last hope of avoiding another four years of this type non-representative government. DK is the only other real 'change' candidate, but hasn't made much impact yet. So, let's allow the primaries to get going before we count our chickens.

[frogcycle]

15. i think the better deal

would be for Biden and Edwards to start campaigning together. I don't care which one heads the ticket, although I lean toward Biden.

They are both serious, issues-oriented candidates who clearly want to fix things, both internationally and domestically. That tandem would eclipse all the rest. Distrust of Hillary and skepticism of Obama's readiness would immediatly boil over as people just said "well, yeah, that's the ticket!"

[AtheistInBabylon]

16. Good ticket

I think that would effectively be a great ticket, although I can't see Edwards either accepting or being offered vice (and that has nothing to do with me supporting Biden). It would be a crowd-pleaser though. I could also see Obama becoming more legit. (in terms of experience) by being Biden's vice and positioning himself extremely well for the future. Personally I'd love to see Edwards as Att. General, and I mean that in the best possible way; I think he would really shine at justice and if he's not president, the future democratic president should consider that position for him.

[itsrobert]

17. Whoever wins Iowa, will win the nomination

You heard it here first.

[frogcycle]

18. actually, no

we've heard it a thousand times

but you have a 50-50 chance of being right, so what the hell