AP's assessment of the Democratic primary races through Super Tuesday

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT/AP: IOWA -- Jan. 3 caucus (45 pledged delegates)

State polls show a tight race among Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards with the rest of the field lagging behind. But polling is notoriously difficult among potential caucus participants, making the true state of play very difficult to gauge.

Clinton's strategists believe a key source of potential strength lies with women who have never attended one of the state's 1,784 precinct caucuses. The campaign is building a ''buddy system'' to match experienced caucus participants with the novices, and is offering transportation and child care. The Obama campaign has a similar strategy with young voters, connecting them with veteran caucus goers. The ''Barack Stars'' are high school seniors supporting the Illinois senator -- they can vote in caucuses if they'll turn 18 by the time of the general election Nov. 4 -- and he has strong support among college students.

Edwards is concentrating on a strategy that served him well four years ago when he finished a close second in Iowa -- bringing out the reliable caucus goers, particularly in rural areas. He's the only Democratic candidate to have visited all 99 Iowa counties, and the 2004 vice presidential nominee has gotten some key labor support here.

Trailing the front-runners in polling and fundraising, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are all banking on a surprise showing in Iowa....

*

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Jan. 8 (22 pledged delegates)

Clinton's once-commanding lead in New Hampshire has diminished somewhat in recent weeks, but it's still in the range of 11 to 15 percentage points. Her strategy here is to build a New Hampshire firewall that would withstand an unpredictable outcome in Iowa. Clinton has traveled to each of New Hampshire's 10 counties and has secured the backing of most of the Democratic establishment. The campaign has made more than 250,000 phone calls to voters.

Obama has started advertising in New Hampshire and is courting Democrats as well as the independents who can participate in the party's primary. His campaign stages house-to-house canvassing and phone banks every night and weekend, with 800 people knocking on doors one weekend in November. ''When people begin to decide, we're going to be at their doors,'' said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.

Edwards is in a distant third place here. He has more than 60 staff on the ground and bought air time touting his health care plan in commercials that were already airing in Iowa....

*

MICHIGAN -- Jan. 15 (128 pledged delegates, likely to be stripped by the national party)

The parties wanted a state-run primary on Jan. 15, and the Michigan Supreme Court gave the go-ahead this week. It could be irrelevant to the candidates, however. They've signed a pledge to skip the state if it goes ahead and holds the contest that early --against the early-primary rules of the national party.

*

NEVADA -- Jan. 19 (25 pledged delegates)

Clinton is far-and-away the leader in Nevada with double the support of Obama in a recent poll....

*

SOUTH CAROLINA -- Jan. 26 (45 pledged delegates)

Clinton holds a wide lead in most polls, and the campaign is working to reinforce her position in South Carolina amid an expected strong challenge from Obama. He is running to become the first black president, and blacks make up about 50 percent of Democratic primary voters in the state.

Campaign officials note two major advantages for Clinton in the state: her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and her strength among older voters and women, no matter what skin color. Former President Clinton remains popular among blacks and has campaigned extensively for his wife here.

Obama has been advertising on three dozen black radio stations across the state -- the most recent spot features him talking about growing up without his father.

Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, won the state's primary in 2004. But he's been polling a distant third this time. Last week he became the first Democratic presidential candidate to advertise on South Carolina television, touting his roots.

*

FLORIDA -- Jan. 29 (185 delegates, stripped for violating party rules)

*

MEGA TUESDAY -- Feb. 5 (As many as 25 states and at least 1,370 delegates)

With 370 pledged delegates, California remains the biggest prize. Clinton maintains a wide lead in California polls, and has launched ''Hillcorps,'' an extensive volunteer outreach effort. Obama is holding ''Camp Obama'' training for volunteer organizers in California and in other Feb. 5 states such as Georgia, Missouri, Alabama and Illinois, his home state.

Clinton is expected to cruise in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey. Besides the large delegate states, Obama's campaign is focusing on caucus states like Colorado and Minnesota where local organizations are necessary for victory.

Edwards does not have staff in Feb. 5 states, banking that a win in Iowa can propel him to victory elsewhere, particularly Southern states such as Arkansas and his home state of North Carolina....

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Dems-Road-to-the-Nomination.html?pagewanted=all

[cali]

1. What this article points out is how daunting the task of

unseating Clinton as frontrunner is. It also makes clear that Edwards has practically no chance at all. Just the fact that he has no ground forces in ANY of the super Tuesday states, is a strong indication that he won't be the nominee.

[asdjrocky]

3. Um,

I'm in the heart of Ca, a Super Tuesday state, and we have more than 30 volunteers locally, and easily 5 times as many state wide. We've tabled, canvased and phone banked Ca. On weekends, we plan trips to NV to help there. Edwards volunteerism is strong in Ca, a fact I can personally attest to.

Good luck to your candidate.

[cali]

6. it's not the same thing as having paid staff on the ground

I know Edwards is counting on matching $, and that would certainly help, but if he doesn't come in first in Iowa, I don't see him even making it to Super Tuesday.

I don't really have a candidate. I'm voting for Kucinich but I'm fully aware that he doesn't stand a chance.

[asdjrocky]

10. Just speaking for what I've seen,

Sure we don't have a full time staff here. But the level of dedication is unsurpassed. Just look at it this way, in Iowa, Hillary has spent 1.9 million, Obama, 3.1 million, and Edwards only 0.6 million and yet it is still statically a dead heat. It's not always the paid people on the ground that make a difference, it's not always the amount of ad time you buy, sometimes, it's the people who count. In Edwards case, I believe it is the people that believe in his vision that have made the difference. I'm hoping just once, that money doesn't buy the office of the President of the United States.

Money isn't everything...

Added on edit:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/17/213624/96

Just in case you needed a link.

[cali]

14. no money isn't everything

but unfortunately it's a big piece of it. And Edwards is competitive in Iowa; he should be, he's spent much of the last 4 years there. Way, way more time than Obama or Clinton.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[asdjrocky]

12. Don't worry, I've noticed.

[cali]

13. excuse me but

you, mr. cornyn, are full of....

I don't support Edwards, but I'm not unreasonable in my criticism. I don't snark about him. I object to him largely based on he Senate record. When he does something I like, I comment on that, as I did about his plan to attack hunger, which I thought was very good, or his support for the Saudi rape victim.

I do not express "unreasoned hatred" of him. And compared to some of your posts about Clinton, I'm a fucking model of decorum and restraint.

Hypocricy, mr. cornyn, hypocricy.

[dsc]

2. North Carolina is Feb 5?

I didn't think we moved. Humm Guess I have to actually pay more attention now.

[NCarolinawoman]

17. I think NC still has the meaningless primary in May.

I think Edwards would probably like to keep it that way because in the last several po,lls taken in NC, he has been lagging far behind Hillary Clinton.

Ultimately, I think Joe Biden would be the best fit for NC in the General Election. Although, I have to say, I have talked to two Republican women recently who told me that they could support Hillary because they see her as "tough and smart".

[dsc]

19. I thought we were May

I would think Edwards would actually pull it out if he needed to but who knows.

[illinoisprogressive]

4. Obama leads as 2nd choice in Iowa. Clinton is far below him there.

S. Carolina will drastically change if Obama does well in mostly white Iowa.
NH, the independents are who will end up deciding who wins.

[papau]

11. I have said for 6 months that Obama takes Iowa, Clinton takes NH - but if

Obama is close in NH the race goes on until the convention.

[Stop Cornyn]

5. Results in Iowa and New Hampshire historically cause such shifts in the later states that trying to

project beyond New Hampshire is fruitless, and even trying to forecast New Hampshire requires the predictive model to make significant assumptions about how the Iowa caucus will play out.

Plus, the playing field will change dramatically as some candidates drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire and support consolidates behind other candidates. I cannot imagine that Richardson, Dodd, and Biden will all be in the race after mid-January; I suspect two or all three will have dropped out by then and, perhaps, even made an endorsement, but certainly at least one of them will be gone.

In the end, Obama, Edwards, or Hillary could win Iowa and gain sufficient momentum from that win to do better than expected in New Hampshire and, based on those two early strong showings, they could ride into the remaining primaries and caucuses with loads of momentum.

The odds favor Hillary at the moment, but the trends seem to be against her. All anyone can say with certainty is that as the race enters Nevada and South Carolina it will look very different than it looks today.

[cali]

8. This year is different. Never has the primary calendar been

so compacted. I'm pretty sure that in itself will make a big difference, though in what way it's hard to say.

[illinoisprogressive]

9. The biggest problems facing Clinton is Iowa and peaking.

i think her numbers were starting to soften before the Philly debate. I do think she may have peaked too soon. whether this is so, we will know by primaries.
this is from The Page, a new blog in Time:

Claim the goal is to get “a strong showing,” but not necessarily victory, as they add offices and staff.

Says one adviser: “Our definition of success doesn’t necessarily mean coming in first….”

[Stop Cornyn]

15. Michelle Obama was right when she acknowledged that the dream is over if Obama doesn't win Iowa.

The problem for Obama is not Iowa, but New Hampshire.

If Obama doesn't win Iowa (or at least finish ahead of Hillary), it is hard to imagine how he will catch Hillary in New Hampshire. If Hillary wins Iowa and then New Hampshire, she'll go into South Carolina with her "inevitability" strategy intact and nothing in the South Carolina polling suggests that Obama can turn it around in South Carolina if Hillary goes into that primary with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

If there is a clear first, second, and third in Iowa, I think Edwards needs to win in Iowa to go forward with a realistic hope of success, Obama needs to finish ahead of Hillary in Iowa to go forward with a realistic hope of success, and if Hillary wins Iowa I don't see a likely scenario where she doesn't get the nomination.

[zalinda]

18. I heard on NPR Wednesday

that she added 100 new paid staff members in Iowa. But from what they said, she bussed them in?

zalinda

[DeepModem Mom]

16. Midday kick, if only for the basic primary info here. nt