David Yepsen, dean of Iowa political press: Front-runners losing luster?

[ClarkUSA]

Two new polls out last week indicate Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee could win their respective caucuses in Iowa, upending the national front-runners and reconfiguring the 2008 presidential race.

With only 38 days left until the Jan. 3 caucuses, the two are proving the old "Nagle rule" of Iowa caucus politics. That truism, dictated years ago by former state chairman and congressman Dave Nagle, says the key to winning an Iowa caucus fight is to "organize, organize, organize - then get hot at the end."

Obama got hot at the Iowa Democratic Party's recent Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, when he gave a superior speech to the audience of 9,000 in Des Moines. Huckabee started warming up when he finished second in the Iowa GOP's August straw poll, and the buzz for him has only increased in subsequent debates and appearances.

Huckabee's good showing comes as he rallies the GOP's substantial bloc of social conservatives. Obama's comes because Democrats are opting for a candidate offering a fresh start over one with more experience... Obama's uptick appears to result from a growing number of Iowa Democrats who are opting for a candidate offering a "new direction and new ideas." Some 55 percent seek that in a candidate, up from 49 percent in July. Only 33 percent prefer a candidate with strength and experience, down from 39 percent in July. Obama wins the new-direction voters; Clinton the strength-and-experience ones.

She also has a problem with men, and is now splitting women with Obama. Only 19 percent of male Democratic caucus-goers support her, and 28 percent back Obama. But 31 percent of the women support Clinton, and 32 percent back Obama.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071125/OPINION01/711250322/1036/OPINION

Bless those Iowans for wanting a new direction forward.

[durrrty libby]

1. Yepsen said Howard Dean would win Iowa in 04.

Some guru:rofl:

[earthlover]

2. So did almost all the pundits...up until now, almost all the pundits said hillary would win

I'd say it is anyone's guess who will win Iowa. But recent polls should give Obama supporters something to cheer about.

Dean was the front runner going into Iowa. Hillary is the front runner going into Iowa. Maybe a similar result?

[Adelante]

3. Dean got nothing but negative press going into Iowa

While Kerry and Edwards, at that point, got nothing but positive press and the polls were showing the change leading into the caucus. The media plays its part and it remains to be seen what that will be in the end game. We can hope for fair coverage for all (ha ha).

[ClarkUSA]

4. Ouch! lol

Good points! :thumbsup: