Harvard study: Obama, Giuliani attracting young voters

[jefferson_dem]

Harvard study: Obama, Giuliani attracting young voters
Email|Link|Comments (0) By James F. Smith December 5, 07 03:27 PM
By Susan Milligan, Globe Staff

WASHINGTON -- Young voters -- a fast-growing and increasingly influential force in US elections -- favor Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, according to a survey by Harvard University's Institute of Politics.

Obama has just a slight lead over New York Senator Hillary Clinton, attracting 38 percent of likely Democratic voters 18-14 years old, compared to 33 percent for Clinton, the national survey said. On college campuses, Obama's lead is more dramatic: he bests his Democratic rival 44-23 percent. But Clinton has a 38 percent to 31 percent edge among young people who have never attended college.

That may be of little use to Obama in Iowa, the site of the first presidential caucuses, since college students will not be in school on caucus day, Jan. 3. But former Democratic Iowa Representative Jim Leach, who now heads the IOP, said the winter break could actually help Obama in rural counties.

Democratic rules in Iowa require candidates to win at least 15 percent of support at a caucus meeting to be awarded any delegates. Young people who go back to their rural homes during their winter break could make the difference in those counties for Obama, who is not polling as high in those areas, which are traditionally more conservative, he said. ``I think you're going to see more young people at rural caucuses,'' Leach added.

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But mirroring Republicans nationwide, the young GOPers aren't very happy with their party's field of candidate, said John Della Volpe, the IOP's polling director. The percentage of undecided GOP voters has actually increased since last spring, when the IOP last surveyed young voters, while young Democrats appear to be settling into their choices.

Candidates should not -- and cannot -- ignore young voters, who were almost singularly responsible for the increase in turnout from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, Della Volpe said. While the voter group is becoming increasingly active -- and could make a pivotal difference in next year's contests - nearly 40 percent say they are not being paid much attention by the presidential candidates.

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http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2007/12/harvard_study_o.html

[marmar]

1. How many young GOPers are there these days?

Probably not enough to fill up a Starbucks.

[rinsd]

2. Only a 5 pt edge in 18-24? I thought it would be larger for Obama.

[jefferson_dem]

4. That is a bit surprising. However, the 19 pt lead among college students is huge.

No surprise that there's battling about student caucusing and availability of dorm rooms in Ames.

[aquart]

3. What has Giuliani to offer anyone, let alone the young adults?

[Bucky]

5. Raw unbridled sex appeal. Maybe even the chance to be the next Mrs 9iu11iani.

You don't see that Jean-Luc Picard thing he's got going one. Not only will the ladies feel safe in his arms, but they'll sleep easier knowing that their pet schnausers are being escorted by New York City police officers.

[Tashca]

6. wrong

I would like to point out that Jim Leach is a former republican rep. not a Democratic one. He is heading the IOP? They need to get the party affiliation right at least.....jeez

[ClarkUSA]

7. Demographic indicators are trending up for Obama

Last month, Clinton led the youth vote nationally. No wonder Peter Daou is sending out phony old polls and "firing" Clintonian dirty tricksters after getting
caught on Daily Kos for spreading fugly smears about Obama.

Thanks for the good news.

Hillaryworld must be hating on Obama unreal these days. Poor babies.