Election 2008: South Carolina Democratic Primary

[EV_Ares]

South Carolina: Clinton 36% Obama 34%
Thursday, December 06, 2007

New York Senator Hillary Clinton’s lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in South Carolina’s Presidential Primary has disappeared. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Clinton with 36% of the vote while Obama is the top choice for 34% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters. A month ago, Clinton had a ten-point advantage. In September, the former First Lady was up by thirteen points.

Currently, John Edwards is a distant third at 13% in South Carolina and no other Democrat tops the 2% level of support (see crosstabs for current survey).

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Clinton’s voters name Obama as their second choice. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Obama voters name Clinton as their second choice. Among supporters of John Edwards, Clinton is the second choice for 34% while Obama gets the nod from 16%.

Two trends in the South Carolina data mirror national trends.

First, Obama’s overall level of support has remained relatively steady while Clinton’s has declined. Nationally, Clinton’s support among likely Democratic Primary Voters has fallen to its lowest level in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Second, Obama’s showing has improved significantly among black voters. He now attracts 51% of the African-American vote in South Carolina while Clinton picks up just 27%. A month ago, the candidates were even in this important constituency (Obama 46%, Clinton 45%). There is virtually no movement among white voters in the state--Clinton now earns 43% of the white vote, Edwards 22%, and Obama 17%.

In the South Carolina survey, African-Americans constitute 49% of Likely Democratic Primary voters.

Among women in South Carolina, Clinton leads Obama by eleven but Obama leads by ten among men 47% to 34%.

Eighty-three percent (83%) have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Seventy-six percent (76%) view Edwards favorably and 74% offer a positive assessment of Obama.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Clinton’s supporters say they are “certain” to vote for her. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Obama’s say the same along with just 47% of Edwards’ South Carolina supporters.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of South Carolina Democratic Primary Voters say the economy is the number one voting issue. Twenty-eight percent (28%) name the War in Iraq while 14% say Health Care.

Fifty-six percent (56%) believe Clinton will eventually win the Democratic nomination, but 28% believe Obama will be the nominee.

Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are virtually even in Iowa, the first state to vote in Election 2008. Clinton leads by ever smaller margins in New Hampshire, and national polls.

Among South Carolina Republicans, the surging Mike Huckabee has taken the lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Link: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_democratic_primary