Obama Holds His Largest Lead Ever in Iowa Poll

[babylonsister]

http://mydd.com/story/2007/12/6/113417/039

Obama Holds His Largest Lead Ever in Iowa Poll

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Dec 06, 2007 at 12:03:11 PM EST

Republican pollster Strategic Vision is out with new numbers from Iowa that seem to gibe with the general trends from both the Democratic and Republican primaries, with both Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee leading their respective party's field in the first early nominating state. Take a look at the latest survey of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers (11/30-12/2, MoE +/- 4.5%), along with the Pollster.com average out of the state (which includes this SV poll).

Candidate 12/2 (11/25) Pollster
Obama 32 (29) 26.4
Clinton 25 (29) 27.9
Edwards 25 (23) 21.8
Biden 5 (4) 4.6
Richardson 3 (6) 8.3
Dodd 1 (1) 1.0
Kucinich 1 (1) 1.2
Undecided 8 (7) N/A

These moves from two weeks ago are all within the margin of error for the poll, as is Obama's lead, so as is almost always the case with these things, one need remember not to place excessive attention on the results of a single poll. That said, looking at the trend of all polling out of Iowa, one cannot help but come away with the sentiment that Obama is on a steady rise in the state while Clinton is nearing or has already hit her peak in the state.

The other key take away from these numbers is that Bill Richardson seems to be hemorrhaging support in Iowa while Biden may be picking up a bit of support here and there. If you had asked me even a month ago what one of the most important yet insufficiently discussed aspects of the campaign in Iowa was I would have said (a) whether Richardson's 10-12 support statewide would be spread in such a way that he would be viable in a good number of caucus locations; and (b) where his support would go in those locations where he did not meet the 15 percent threshold for viability. Yet if Richardson is really down in towards 3 percent support -- four of the past five polls from the state show he's pulling in single-digit support in the state after having consistently polled in the low double-digits or high single-digits since May -- where his support goes becomes a lot less important of a question.

Finally, on the Republican side, it's pretty unambiguously clear that Mitt Romney has lost his lead in Iowa, a lead that had endured pretty well for at least a half a year. Romney and Huckabee are effectively tied in the state at this point, with Huckabee perhaps holding a small advantage in polling (he's up 3 points in this poll, 27 percent to 24 percent) and Romney seemingly holding an organizational advantage. No one else in the Republican field seems to have a genuine shot at carrying Iowa at this point.

[AtomicKitten]

1. Obama is trending upward and beautifully positioned for the win.

[rinsd]

2. Obama is certainly on the rise in IA but I think its difficult to predict a peak in a caucus state.

Hillary does very well as the 2nd choice of Biden & Richardson supporters.

[earthlover]

12. 2nd best won't do!

[Occam Bandage]

3. Holy hell, 32/25/25? That's shocking.

[Stop Cornyn]

4. I love Edwards is rising to 25% just as Hillary is falling to 25% like ships passing in the night

with opposite destinations.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

5. woo-hoo!

maybe I won't lose faith in the Democratic voters after all!

[Jersey Devil]

6. I think this is all so stupid

Picking a presidential nominee by polling farmers in Iowa and cranky New Englanders is just poop!

Well, at least this year maybe the NJ primary may mean something since it's in February rather than the usual June primary when it is always all over before NJ voters get to voice their opinions.

Shouldn't a nominee be chosen based on voters in mainstream areas (like NJ and many other places) rather than oddball places with practically no one living there like Iowa?

[sniffa]

8. Jersey's main stream?

:wow:

[Jersey Devil]

14. A hellova lot more than Iowa

Jersey is much more representative for the Democrats of America than the cornfields of Iowa, don't you think? A multi-racial, multi-ethnic mix that leans slightly left and swings between Democrats and Republicans, has a significant urban population and something like at least 8 to 10 times the population of Iowa.

[surfermaw]

7. John Edwards is leading in Iowa

And has never been behind!

[sniffa]

9. no, Gravel is

you people don't know anything. :eyes:

[GOPBasher]

10. No George McGovern is!

I still have faith!

:shrug:

[mckeown1128]

11. Why do Iowins hate strong women???

:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[earthlover]

13. obama is looking good.....in iowa, in nh, and in sc

Watch the daily national polls on rasmussen's site, he is narrowing the gap significantly. He is almost tied in SC. Within striking distance in NH.

Obama is poised to get a big bump from iowa, win NH by a large margin, hold his own in NV and MI, and win SC.

I don't see how Hillary recovers from this scenario.

I think what is happening is a realignment caused by, or at least fed by the realization that Hillary is not inevitable, obama and/or edwards do have a chance, etc. The black vote in SC, for example, was evenly divided between obama and hillary. Now that obama looks like he actually has a chance, this has changed significantly. IT is things like this that demonstrate that much of hillary's early lead was BECAUSE OF Hillary's early lead.

Now....poof!....it is gone