Cellphones Challenge Poll Sampling

[EV_Ares]

By MEGAN THEE
Published: December 7, 2007

With more American households giving up their old-fashioned land lines and using cellphones for all calls, public opinion researchers are facing a challenge of how to make sure they are getting representative samples when conducting polls. Since the 1970s, pollsters have relied on sampling techniques that depend on talking with people on their home land line telephones. For the most part, the polls sample the public by randomly dialing telephone numbers in every region from a list of area codes and exchanges known to be residences. The sample is weighted to the results of the latest census. But cellphones are not geographically based, forcing pollsters to adjust their methods. In addition, a land line often represents a household and a cellphone often represents an individual.

Pollsters say they are also concerned about low response rates among people reached on cellphones. Because wireless carriers charge customers by the minute, people may be less likely to agree to complete lengthy cellphone surveys. The survey industry is exploring reimbursing respondents for minutes used. Researchers using computers to dial may encounter legal complications. The Federal Communications Commission requires an interviewer to dial the number when calling a cellphone. No autodialers are allowed. Survey researches have dealt with sampling and low response rates before. But cellphones bring up a new concern, safety. Calling someone driving or engaged in another activity that requires concentration raises ethics and liability questions.

Bloggers and media critics have been questioning pollsters for months about whether 2008 polls are truly representative without including cellphone-only households.

The issue came up in 2004, but cellphone-only households in 2003 were 3 percent of the total. They now run 16 percent, according to Mediamark Research. The F.C.C. estimates that more than 60 percent of households have at least one mobile phone. The demographic groups that tend to be cellphone-only households are also historically less likely to vote, reducing the effects of underrepresentation in pre-election polls.

the entire article @ the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/us/07polling.html?ref=technology

[LeftCoast]

1. Been watching this issue

Hadn't realized the percentage of cell-phone only's had gone up so fast. This is really going to start skewing polling soon, if it's not already. Going to have to take all polls with a little bigger grain of salt from now on.

[Perry Logan]

2. This is sad. It has given false hope to the anti-Clintonites.

[EV_Ares]

3. LOL, man you are so bias, Guess you are admitting she is crashing, I honestly.

think it pretty much is the same in all polls, for all people and any other polling done.

[Greyskye]

4. Zogby

At the end of the last Zogby poll I took, there were soliciting people to give their cell phone numbers in order to be polled by both text message and live pollsters.

I went ahead and did it. We'll see how this goes. :shrug:

[EV_Ares]

5. Good idea, texting is really the future. They are using it especially for

all kinds of emergencies. Now, in some cities, you can report a crime by texting and they are finding people doing it more often, no worry about personal involvement but can report the crime in an easy way. Universitites using it to notify all students of an alert or emergency.

Seems like it could be used in polling as well.

Thanks for that comment.