Most likely nominees: For Obama, It Takes a Movement

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: For Obama, It Takes a Movement

For months, we've written that the only way for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) -- or any other Democrat for that matter -- to defeat Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is to make the vote about more than just politics. A standard political race -- governed by the same rules and regulations that typify these contests -- will almost certainly result in Clinton as the nominee. Her reach within the party establishment is just too broad for anyone to beat her in a traditional nominating contest. But in a non-traditional fight, all bets are off. And, more and more, Obama seems set on turning his candidacy -- and the vote in the Iowa caucuses -- into a movement, insisting that the choice is crucial for the future direction of the country. This idea is illustrated in Obama's latest ad, which began running in Iowa earlier this week:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K38JnVMpzRs

....Turning his campaign into a movement about something more than politics is the best -- and perhaps only -- path for Obama to win the nomination. He appears to have realized that....

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As always, remember the No. 1 ranked candidate is the one who is most likely to wind up as that party's nominee....

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Rodham Clinton: The coronation is officially on hold. But be careful about predicting the demise of Clinton II. She is tough as nails and, more so than any other candidate on either side (with the possible exception of McCain), knows how to soldier through adversity. For all the political obituaries being penned about Clinton, every poll we've seen shows Iowa a three-way statistical dead heat. Momentum isn't on Clinton's side at the moment in the state, but her campaign is pulling out the stops to shift the debate from one of personalities to one of accomplishments. If Clinton loses in Iowa, New Hampshire will be her last, best chance to retake the frontrunner mantle. Still, she has more potential paths to the nomination than any of her opponents. (Previous ranking: 1)

Barack Obama: We've said our piece about Obama above. During our trip to Iowa last weekend, we saw a different Obama -- savvier politically, more comfortable in his own skin etc. The biggest remaining question for Obama is: Do Iowa voters go right to the edge with him only to change their minds to go with the perceived better general-election candidate (Clinton or John Edwards)? We don't know. (Previous ranking: 2)

John Edwards: Count us as skeptical about the talk that Edwards's Iowa support is rapidly eroding. In poll after poll -- including the Post's own poll and the Des Moines Register's gold standard survey -- Edwards is within striking distance. He touched a chord with Iowa voters in 2004, and he has kept a loyal and sizable group with him despite the presence of two rock stars in the Democratic field. Turnout is everything for Edwards in Iowa. In 2004, the campaigns of former Gov. Howard Dean (Vt.) and then-Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo.) planned for a traditional turnout model (60,000 to 70,000) and were swamped when more than 124,000 people turned out. If the number of voters stays between 120,000 and 140,000, Edwards has a strong chance. If it grows beyond that, he could be in trouble. (Previous ranking: 3)...

(NOTE: The number 4 and 5 Democrats are Richardson and Biden. The Republicans 1 to 5 are Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee in a tie, McCain and Paul.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/12/the_line_is_a_movement_buildin.html