Is Hillary folding or is Obama surging?

[cleveramerican]

Has Hillary's missteps reminded voters about some things we didn't like about the Clinton's?
Or....
Has Obama transformed his candidacy into a movement that won't be denied?

Its one or the other
The race is very fluid
Something seismic is happening.

[mtnsnake]

1. Huge early leads are always bound to narrow towards the end

It's just getting more interesting, that's all.

[Fredda Weinberg]

4. ..

[Capn Sunshine]

16. Huge early leads are based on name recognition

Then, as voters get to know a candidate, the voters decide who they like. Hillary is a victim of her own campaign organization. They have screwed the pooch in Iowa and the other early states. If by some miracle of chicanery Hillary gets the nomination, look for her campaign to repeat this pattern in the general.

[MonkeyFunk]

2. I think the race is

narrowing, as anybody who's observed politics for more than one election cycle knew it would.

[rinsd]

3. One can have momentum (positive or negative) without it being the end all be all.

Obama now has momentum, whether he can maintain it remains to be seen.

Hillary has had a rough month but she still has time to get back in the lead.

[Catherine Vincent]

5. It may mean that Edwards is surging. nt

[karynnj]

33. There's not much backing for that

He has moved slightly up in many polls, but only to where he was earlier in the year. He actually has had the most stable numbers nationally - he is almost always above 10 and never much above 18. That has been the case since he declared a year ago.

[jefferson_dem]

6. It's a combo. The narrative is taking hold.

Desperate Hillary on Attack vs. Positive Obama for Change...and with "The Mo."

EDIT: As rinsd says above, it remains to be seen what happens between now and 1-3-8.

[ronnykmarshall]

7. A movement

:hide:

[Joe the Revelator]

8. Don't listen to Team Hillary trying to convince you the race is "narrowing"

Seriously, when does Penn send out the talking points? I'd like to get on the mailing list.

Anyway, Hillary has imploded. Wheather its from "peaking too soon" or just running a really shoddy campaign I don't know, though a lean toward the latter. It seems her response to Everything has been extremely miscalculated.

Plus Obama is catching up on name recognition.

[ronnykmarshall]

9. Like I a said ...

a movement

[Perry Logan]

10. Oh what the heck--I think Kucinich is surging.

[BigDDem]

11. Yes

The person leading in every national poll is folding.

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Keep on putting your faith in those national polls....

then you can use them for toilet paper come January 4th.

[MadBadger]

15. If all that matters in this country's election system is national polls..

Now who do you think would have been President in 2000?

[PATRICK]

12. Good question

It has to be both in some way. One wonders though if the undecideds who tended away from Hillary are now coming out as not buying into an unpalatable choice, helped by the Obama-Clinton spats. Whichever way Hillary wants to interpet it are not good for her campaign to publicly define. One would dis her opponent at the expense of admitting her negatives, the other would pump Obama up into a formidable challenger.

Obama can happily claim both. Momentum is all right now. Hillary could slip to third and then the race is really on!

[suston96]

14. Obama is surging......

He will pass Clinton and peak just before Christmas.....and......

Everybody knows that the leader going into the caucuses always wins....

[ronnykmarshall]

18. Really?

Iowa results 1972 - 2004

Please call Presidents Harkin, Gephart and Muskie and give them my regards.

January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%) defeated John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%) defeated Bill Bradley (37%)
February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton* (unopposed)
February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) defeated Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton* (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
February 8, 1988 - Richard Gephardt (31%) defeated Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%) defeated Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
January 21, 1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%) defeated Ted Kennedy (31%)
January 19, 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%) defeated Jimmy Carter* (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
January 24, 1972 - Edmund Muskie (36%) defeated George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)

[Nedsdag]

23. The truth hurts, huh girlfriend?

:shrug:

[ronnykmarshall]

27. ????

[Occam Bandage]

17. I'd say it's more an Obama surge than a Hillary collapse, though she hasn't

done herself any favors recently.

[Bitwit1234]

19. Hillary Missteps absolute bullshit

the only reason Obama is even getting a boast in Iowa is because Oprah paid to have all those students bussed in to vote. Instead of being responsible citizens, they think this is an American Idol incident. Obama won't survive I doubt if he even comes close to getting anything. And with the type of campaign he is starting to run, slur, bash, and trying to be a pop idol he deserves to fall flat on his face.

[Debi]

20. Oprah bussed people into Iowa to vote?!!

:wow:

Oh My God!

[Joe the Revelator]

22. Seems Hillary's collapse is really starting to get to you

:rofl:

[Nedsdag]

24. You're joking right?

Because you CANNOT be serious!

The Kool-Aid isn't that good.

[sniffa]

26. mmm, what delicious lies you have

so tasty. :9

[suston96]

21. "Don't listen to Team Hillary trying to convince you the race is "narrowing" "

Absolutely. Team Hillary is wrong.

We are right! So there?

[sniffa]

25. she doesn't have to win Iowa

nor does she have to win NH, SC, Nevada, or any state for that matter. she could lose all 50, and she's still going to get the nomination.

[Debi]

28. The sniffa speaks

and so we all should listen



This nomination is hers.

[sniffa]

29. i don't even know why she's bothering to campaign

or show up at debates, or collect huge sums of cash. she should be picking out the drapes for the White House.

[Debi]

31. And lining up the entertainment for her inaugural ball n/t

[calteacherguy]

30. Both. nt

[karynnj]

32. From the numbers, if they hold on

HRC is clearly losing the soft support due to perceived inevitability and ability to fight back. But, also growing is undecided. This suggests it is not people looking at another candidate and saying, I like him better. It is more that some people are losing faith in HRC.

I agree with you it is suddenly becoming fluid. Note: this may just be that this translates to late December 2004, because of the shift in the election calendar - think how fluid things became then. After months of it being Dean, there was a quick Clark peak followed by a Kerry surge.

You may be right that is it gets close and as Bill Clinton has at least twice created negatives - people are beginning to remember that though the 1990s were far better than Bush's reign - there was always a problem of having to defend things that couldn't be defended.