Dec 7th NJ Straw Caucus: Edwards wins, Obama 2nd, Kucinich 3rd

[FogerRox]

In Roselle Park NJ, over 200 Democrats gathered to vote with their boots, literally. Edwards, Kucinich, Obama, HRC, Biden, & Richardson supporters got up from their chairs and walked around the room forming separate groups.


HRC lost the straw caucus in NJ last night, in the 1st round. As well as Biden and Richardson. 19 of 21 state chairs support HRC, this support does not translate into boots on the ground, not in NJ.

Final results

1. Edwards 43% (76 votes)
2. Obama 38% (68 votes)
3. Kucinich 19% (34 votes)



Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson-Coleman and NJ Democratic Chair
Joseph Cryan




John Bartlett counting John Edwards' supporters in the final round.





Bluejersey dot com is reporting "Clinton Campaign Stumbles Big in New Jersey"



State Party Chairman Joseph Cryan 2nd from left, and Congressman Steve Rothman on the right.

Last night was the unofficial New Jersey Presidential Caucus, sponsored by Blue Jersey, NJ for Democracy, and a wide range of other progressive and Democratic organizations. The event was well attended by grassroots activists and party leaders from all across the state, and was a real test of organizing for the campaigns.

The room was packed (200+ people, literally standing room only for much of the night) and buzzing with excitement. Netroots candidate and soon to be Congresswoman Linda Stender and state party chair Joe Cryan got the room fired up, calling for Democratic unity after the primary season ends and delivering strong condemnations of the Bush Republican record.

Next, the campaigns rolled out their big guns in the surrogate department, trying to convince caucusers to support their preferred candidates. Notably, Senate President Dick Codey spoke for John Edwards, Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman spoke for Hillary Clinton, and Congressman Steve Rothman spoke for Barack Obama.

After each of the campaigns had a chance to present the caucus officially began. And that's when the surprises started.
rhymeswithferriero :: Clinton Campaign Stumbles Big in New Jersey
Quickly, let me explain the basic process/rules in place last night. There were three rounds of caucusing with viability thresholds after the first and second rounds to allow candidates to continue to the next round. Any candidate who didn't have support of at least 15% of the caucusers was considered unviable in the first round and was eliminated; the second round threshold was 20% of caucusers. There was a bit of a twist after the first round, as any unviable candidate was free to try and court supporters from other unviable candidates and try and re-form and compete in the second round. In the third and final round, the top vote-getter of the remaining candidates was the winner (which turned out to be Edwards 43%, Obama 38%, Kucinich 19%).

I, along with most people in the room, was stunned to see what happened when the actual caucusing took place. Hillary Clinton's campaign, after a robust effort, narrowly failed to meet the 15% viability threshold and was eliminated in the first round. Determined not to be knocked out, the Clinton organizers aggressively courted supporters of other unviable candidates (Biden and Richardson, mostly) to try and reorganize and make it through the second round of caucusing to the final round. Once again, after intense outreach, the Clinton camp missed the 20% viability threshold-- again, by just a handful of votes.

New Jersey has been called Clinton country by all manner of pundits, noting that she's locked up much of the Democratic establishment's support as well as her leads in the polls here. So, a lot of people came into the night expecting a Clinton win. The actual results were astounding: Clinton failed badly not only in the expectations game but in basic, bread and butter organizing.

MORE :http://www.bluejersey.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6372

[saltpoint]

1. Go, Johnny, go in Jersey.

Congratulations to our Democrats for this one in the Garden State.

[gateley]

23. Congrats to Edwards! nt

[saltpoint]

24. Hey there gateley. Thanks, and a warm howdy on a cold December's night.

I'm usually obsessed with Democrats but am drawn to the anemic and ineffective campaigns that most of the Republicans are running right now, much like when people can't take their eyes off a really bad car wreck.

Giuliani and Thompson especially.

Less than a month to go before Iowa.

I hope we all survive what's going to be a very intense 20 days or so.

[gateley]

25. Is it painful to watch -- the R's campaigning, I mean. I keep reading where

Huckabee is gaining support by leaps and bounds -- have Giuliani and Thompson responded that you can tell? Also, it'll be interesting to see how Romney fares after his Religion speech.

These days ARE going to be intense -- I've never been so involved or cared so much about the outcome before. If Biden doesn't do well in Iowa, I wonder if I'll be shell shocked and wandering around mumbling incoherently.

This is surprising and exciting about Edwards taking first in NJ! I bet nobody could have predicted that. And Clinton not even showing -- that's amazing!

Isn't this fun??

[saltpoint]

26. As other posters here have noted, Codey is popular in NJ. I had underestimated

his impact, but clearly he's a player.

With 20 days left until Iowa, Biden has some deal-closing to do, and it's deal-closing that he can do. His campaign is energized and right on, and the endorsements have been coming in a steady stream.

The question will be whether the small business owners and farmers are as drawn to Obama (who's leading now) as the younger "change" voters. Oprah is a hit because she's Oprah, but I'm not sure the hog farmers in rural Iowa as as taken with her. My guess is they don't have anything against her, but they may not see how her saying so makes Obama's campaign more pertinent to them. When Oprah's on tv, many of those farmers are in their fields or driving back and forth from town.

John Kerry came from way, way behind in Iowa last time by appealing to those people in those small cafes. He'd hold a town meeting in a restaurant or cafe in towns without a television or radio station, or in some cases, without a newspaper. Kerry had to do it that way or he'd lose Iowa and with it, any momentum into NH.

Biden could do the same playbook and perhaps make more impact than a heavy media splash with Oprah Winfrey. If Obama wins, he beats your guy and my guy both, plus all the other candidates. But if he wins, I don't think it will be because Oprah says he should win. If Edwards wins, I think it will be on the momentum of his work there in 04 plus his second-choice standings to date. If Biden wins, it will be because those small town voters feel that what he says sounds more secure and supportable than the crap they've been asked to shovel from Bush for the last 8 years.

And since 8 years of crap is a LOT of crap, that puts Biden's foreign & domestic policies in the forefront. I would have to help him. The mainstream media isn't going to cover the other 6 candidates because Oprah doesn't love them. So it's up to those small town voters and how well and carefully and earnestly they listen.

[Gloria]

2. Codey is really popular in NJ...after McGreevy resigned, it was hoped that

Codey would run for Gov. He refused.

I'm really impressed that Codey came out for Edwards.

Perhaps some people are not buying into the Clinton machine nor the Obama fancy-footwork after all....

[slick8790]

3. Wow, that's almost exactly what I was going to post.

I wasn't aware Codey endorsed Edwards. I was disappointed he didn't run for Gov.

[FogerRox]

5. Codey acted as the Edwards surrogate, for the caucus.

[Madam Mossfern]

8. You have no idea how much this thrills me.

I need to make some calls in the next few days.
Whatever I can do for Edwards, I will.

I was almost sure that the state would go for Hillary and just gave up after being shouted down by Hillary supporters. I see now that I'm not alone. It seems that I need to get out more often. NJ is not an easy state and I think that HRC has support of some political power brokers in Essex County. Need to check that out.

[saltpoint]

9. I'm happy about your choice, Madam Mossfern, and impressed also by

your avatar -- the invocation of the ancient goddess.

The war-makers have tried to chase her into the fog, yet she abides.

[FogerRox]

10. After the 1st rnd, HRC supporters, as well as Biden & Richardson supporters

were wooed by other supporters in getting ready for the second rnd. Thats when Edwards pulled ahead.

It was a great event, I recommend it.

[FogerRox]

17. Im in Essex, Montclair.

Edwards is very strong amoungst the people I hang out with.

[Madam Mossfern]

29. I was referring to the North Ward

and Adubato.
Do you know how they are leaning?
I'm in Verona and the Democratic party here is almost non-existent, at least organizationally.

[DurShar]

4. Sweet Dennis picked up a 3rd place.

Glad to see him make viability threshold and then beat Clinton to boot. The Kucinich grassroot movement isn't a pushover this time around.

[gateley]

6. I was happy to see Dennis show, too. I think it's great so many people turned

out!

[FogerRox]

12. 189 folks stuck it out to the end

[LWolf]

31. It gives all of us

who support someone who is not a crowned "top tier" some hope, doesn't it?

[saltpoint]

7. Hi, DurShar. Just wanted to butt in here about the grassroots and

a couple of Kucinich voters I met in California in 2004.

A father and a son. Mild day, light wind, big crowd. I saw their lapel buttons and went over and spoke to them.

These were committed people -- committed to a better life for themselves and others and more peace rather than less peace. Quite understandably, they were appalled at the Bush administration because they felt that what they most respected in their country was under threat by Bush policies. It was not so simple a hinge as that, but that was how our conversation unfolded. They thought under Bush the nation was not at its best, and it grieved them that any president would accept such a low, mean, standard.

They were for Dennis Kucinich because in him they felt the country that had been in place before 2000 was one he could restore, and they were willing to be a part of that restoration.

Either of those two people could have been you, for all I know. Your post reminded me a lot of the conversation those two folks shared with me that day.

[Melissa G]

11. Thanks for the fascinating scoop, Roj! n/t

[FogerRox]

14. I caucused for Edwards, we sat next to the Kucinich supporters.

SO all my friends were on the same side of the room.

[Melissa G]

16. If I was in NJ, I probably would have sat right around there myself

I admit some interest in Biden as well. :hi:

[frogmarch]

13. Thanks for posting this. Encouraging!

The pix are great too. :thumbsup:

[FogerRox]

15. When the State Chair shows as well Former Gov Codey

you know its a good DFA event. A Lot of power brokers showed up.

[asdjrocky]

18. Man, that is great news-

I'm taking the three hour drive down to Salinas Ca to help with the Salinas Straw Vote tomorrow. It's good to know he did so well in NJ.

[FogerRox]

19. I was stunned HRC didnt make it out of the 1st Rnd

[asdjrocky]

22. Yeah, me too-

You would think Hillary would do better in her own back yard.

[itsrobert]

20. Wow, right in Hillary's backyard

Even Bill can't win there.

[ooglymoogly]

21. he is now my main man.

[Beacool]

27. Oh please, a straw poll in NJ means crap to voters.

I should know since this is my state. Hillary is way ahead than other Dems. with the people who actually count: the voters. The rest is just irrelevant.

[Yukari Yakumo]

28. A straw poll anywhere means crap.

Kathleen "Wicked Witch of the South" Harris won straw polls.

[Madam Mossfern]

30. Sounds like sour grapes to me

I bet you'd be posting differently if the results favored Hillary. Don't worry, there are still may Hillary supporters around here, but if they continue to be shrill, you won't hear from people who don't want to vote for her, but you will know after the votes are counted.

From my experience, the main reason that people support her is that she's a woman or that she's connected to Bill....really pathetic. I advise them to look at the issues and the statements and records of all the candidates and then decide if they still support Hillary. Understand that unfortunately the majority of the voting populace don't do their homework and cast their votes based on sound bytes and endorsements. I think that Oprah's endorsement of Obama may have had a large impact on the large African American community here.

[Andy823]

32. Yep

If Hillary would have won, it would be "great" news, and "proof" she is the only one that can win.

What I see more and more is Edwards winning online polls, straw polls, and gaining support from the "people". And contrary to popular belief that the "money" makes you the winner, it's the "people" that will vote for the person who can make the change we need, and stand up to lobbyists and corporations, and that person is JOHN EDWARDS!

[Beacool]

36. Nope straw polls, just as online polls, almost always mean crap.

They reflect the likes and dislikes of a few party insiders. It hardly ever reflects what the real voters of a state are actually feeling and who they favor in the primary.

[Stop Cornyn]

33. I hope the caucus participants in Iowa are as wise!

[ronnykmarshall]

34. Well it's all over!

[flyarm]

35. can anyone name one place in the country where Hillary has won a straw poll? eom