MSNBC's Howard Fineman: "Clinton's campaign is teetering on the brink"

[ClarkUSA]

WASHINGTON - Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers
say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests,
including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner...
Here’s where things stand... National polls still give Hillary a double-digit lead. Those polls mean nothing. What matters now is not the
number but the direction, and Obama is movin’ on up at a rapid pace. Little pieces of evidence matter. In Manchester, N.H., the other day,
Democratic Gov. John Lynch showed up at the Obama-Oprah rally, ostensibly to introduce Oprah, but, really to cover his bets politically.
The newest polls in the state show why: Obama is tied with Hillary, and people are literally exchanging her lawn signs for his. If he can
win Iowa – and it remains a big if – Hillary’s campaign could collapse. New Hampshire would almost surely go his way. The Culinary
Workers in Nevada might well endorse him, as could influential South Carolina Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn. Black Democrats have
complained for years that Iowa and New Hampshire are “too white.” But the irony is, South Carolina African-Americans I talked to last
weekend want to see if Obama can win white votes before they commit to him. There is no better way of doing that than in Iowa and New
Hampshire. And don’t forget something else: he has 150,000 online contributors. He can raise cash fast... In a way, Hillary is trapped
by her own do-it-yourself feminist ethos. She should have surrogates out there pounding away at Obama. I haven’t seen them. And
her husband, evidently, won’t do it. Why should Bill Clinton tarnish his image as “America’s first black president” by attacking
the man who might be the real deal? His circle is beginning to complain, loudly, about how Hillary is running her campaign.
That kind of circular firing squad chatter is the first sign of a campaign headed into oblivion.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22217110/

Very interesting analysis... :-)

[Hieronymus]

1. Maybe he's right .. it wouldn't bother me.

[liberalhistorian]

2. It sure wouldn't bother me, either. In fact,

I'd love to see it happen.

[jgraz]

3. Me either. Last I checked, Obama was still Not Hillary Clinton (tm)

[ClarkUSA]

4. Nice to see Fineman agreeing with most of us that national polls are meaningless...

Except for the momentum trends, of course.

By the way, Fineman speaks very well of Edwards in this report. Edwards or Obama will win Iowa, imo. I see Hillary ending up third or worse.

[CoffeeCat]

6. Hillary is tanking here in Iowa...

She has made so many mistakes here, and the Iowa polls reveal
a significant downward momentum. It's not just that she's lost
a few points, she's trending downward into a free fall.

This trend will only continue.

I predict that she'll finish fourth,at best, in Iowa.

[ClarkUSA]

7. Iowans are keen judges of character, obviously. They've seen the true Hillary lately.

Who do you think will end up third, then? Richardson and Biden are polling in single digits in most polls I've seen recently.
And who do you think will end up winning Iowa? Thanks for the local/state insights! :D

[CoffeeCat]

11. That's very true...

We've seen Hillary as someone who is completely incapable
of being honest and real.

As far as the Iowa caucuses, I'm guessing that it will be all about
Obama and Edwards. It will be a battle--at the thousands of individual
caucus sites---over Obama and Edwards.

I think Hillary, Richardson and Biden will duke it out for 3rd, 4th and
5th place. I have no idea how that will play out, but Hillary is trending
downward, with Biden and Richardson gaining a bit of traction. Especially
Biden, he's doing better and his message is getting through.

Edwards and Obama are both running stellar, very smart campaigns here. Both
get it. They're meeting with many small groups, listening and taking the
tough questions and looking people in the eye. That's how you get people
to caucus for you.

Also, the Des Moines Register--the paper that is disseminated statewide--will
endorse a candidate. My guess is that it's either Obama or Edwards, not
Hillary. The Chief Political correspondent, David Yepsen, is an ardent
Obama supporter. Last election, the Register endorsed Edwards. Also, our
governor's endorsement is important. Our Governor, Chet Culver, is popular.
Last election, the endorsement came from the Governor's wife and it might happen
that way this year. Culver and his wife are closely tied to the Edwards camp. They
practically share staff, and Edwards campaigned for Culver, when Culver
ran for Gov. Edwards could get the nod from the office, from Mari Culver.
If Obama and Edwards take these Iowa prizes--that further marginalizes
Clinton. These endorsements might not catapult a candidate over the top,
but if Clinton ends up with neither, she declines even further. I can't
imagine Culver's camp endorsing her. He's more progressive and the
Culvers were big supporters of Kerry/Edwards.

Hillary has really failed in Iowa (accusing a legitimate Iowan of being
a plant in the middle of a Q&A, planting questions at her own speeches, the
kindergarten remark, her detached, impersonal campaigning style, etc).

That's my 2 cents anyway.

[Apollo11]

14. Thanks for taking the time to share your insights.

The whole world will be watching to see who comes out on top in the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd.

From what you are saying, it sounds like Hillary will be lucky to finish in the Top 3.

Did you already decide on a candidate yet - or are you keeping your options open?

[CoffeeCat]

27. I haven't decided on a candidate yet...

...which is really odd for me. Usually I have my candidate by now, my
yard sign up and I'm ready to go.

I really don't know who I'm supporting.

I'm still researching and meeting the candidates.

I like Obama. I really like Edwards a lot. Joe Biden is
amazing, and Richardson is great too.

[Apollo11]

29. Must admit I am kind of jealous

It sounds like a lot of fun living in Iowa during caucus season.

I guess the main drawback is the midwest winter weather!

[CoffeeCat]

31. I have to say, it is nice to feel...

...so connected to our government, after feeling so alienated during
Bush's tenure. It is really nice, feeling as if the candidates are
listening to "We The People", pitching ideas and dialogging with voters.

We know they're after our support, but it's refreshing to experience
the candidates catering to the people.

Listen to what I've experienced--just this week!

--I've been contacted by the Richardson campaign, and someone spent about 15 minutes
on the phone--answering my questions and explaining Richardson's views.

--I got a call from the Edwards campaign, inviting me to a town-hall meeting and
letting me know about an event he is doing with Tim Robbins.

--On Tuesday, an Obama supporter shows up at our door--wanting to know if we have
any questions about caucusing.

--Biden's people called and wanted to know if I was still "undecided" and wondering if my
"main concerns were still the Iraq war and the economy."

--Yesterday, I got an email from an acquaintance, inviting me to an Obama
house party. The email said that Obama would be joining us via speaker phone.
A few hour later, I get another email from the mayor of Des Moines--telling me
that I would be getting email invites to Obama house parties (these people are
organized, aren't they?), and to come join the fun! The email provided a space where
I could input my address to find the nearest Obama house party, if I didn't receive
an invite yet. I'm all ready attending, but I entered my address any way. Sure
enough, another Obama house party, just 15 minutes away, pops up.

Oh, and this morning, I got a Christmas card from the Edwards family. Nice
picture!

This is really fun. :)

[Apollo11]

37. WOW!

Phonecalls, House parties, Christmas cards ...

Thanks for sharing! :hi:

[earthlover]

24. Why Do You Hate America? Why Do You Hate Hillary? :-)

I thought I would ask before the Hillary Gaggle chimes in

[CoffeeCat]

28. LOL...

Hmmmm...lets see. I guess I hate her for her freedom?

;)

[K Gardner]

30. Much thanks for your 2 cents! And for the hard and diligent work all Iowans do in the caucuses !

[ClarkUSA]

38. Great firsthand reporting!

Thanks... that's been my take for the past few weeks from all the phone banking I've done with Iowa voters, many of whom have been down
on Hillary. She is really burning her bridges with Iowa, NH and SC voters with Clintonian lies and nastiness.

And if that's your 2 cents, I'd love to see your dollar reporting! :)

[elizm]

16. I saw Fineman at the SC rally on Sunday...

He saw first hand how the momentum is changing. No one left that rally believing that Hillary would win SC.

[ClarkUSA]

40. Thanks for this tip and your great photos from the Double O Express SC rally, elizam

What was his expression during the rally? It must have been amazing to witness the energy up close, as you and he must have.

[GreenTea]

5. Bullshit!

[weeve]

8. Once again ...

... the Mainstream Corporate Media trying to make this a TWO PERSON race. Nary a word on Edwards, the one (in my opinion) most likely to win Iowa, and do exceedingly well in the follow-up states. I guess I shouldn't complain, at least they didn't outright BAN HIM from the next debate (as much as they'd like to). Disgraceful.

[ClarkUSA]

9. Um, did you bother to read the entire article before you started complaining?

Because Fineman wrote some VERY nice things about Edwards in this piece. So much for your theory.

Oh, and I think Edwards or Obama will win Iowa, with Hillary coming in third. But Edwards has little CoH to go the distance, imo.

[themaguffin]

43. un huh, yeah, and Biden, Richardson,, Dodd....

Biden had been widely praised in the debates, widely referenced by the other candidates.. would clearly crush any republican candidate both by clearly stating liberal issues and on their supposed issue, national security.

No other Democrat offers his expertise on foreign policy.

[OHdem10]

10. I decided early on that I would vote for the Candidate who

wins.

However, if this scenario plays out--I think Fineman is blowing
smoke .--the GOP keep the White House.

No disrespect to any other candidate, they will not win the General
Election.

I love Edwards --the real Democrat in the race.

[whirlygigspin]

12. enjoying the beauty pageant?

polls are irrelevant, vote for real leadership

[MrSlayer]

13. Well that's why they play the game.

Everyone can predict all they want but until the votes, or "votes" as you will, are counted no one is really sure what the hell is going to happen. I'm personally thinking that Edwards takes Iowa.

[hayu_lol]

15. All I notice on this thread is that the OP has just produced another...

anti-Hillary rant. He tries to be subtle. But then all his anti-Hillary threads are subtle. He always puts the blame on others.

Thanks for using worn out Republican talking points to make your point. Also helps me make mine.

[earthlover]

25. Why do you hate America? WHy do you hate Hillary? Are you a card carrying Republican? :-)

sarc

[MrSlayer]

47. I'm sorry but I'm confused.

What tired right-wing talking points am I using? I just said what I felt.

[oasis]

17. Hillary can tetter all the way to the White House and it may not be pretty getting there, but

as Oakland Raider owner, Al Davis says, "Just win baby".

[Tellurian]

18. And Win she Will..

DU opinions are not reflected in Iowa, NH or SC!

[oasis]

19. Don't forget Nevada. (eom)

[DFW]

20. Howard Fineman?

You gotta be kidding. I've never liked that slimy character since I first
saw him explaining away why the Bush "victory" was OK, back in December 2000.

If he reported that it was July, I'd expect to see snow on the ground.

[IADEMO2004]

21. I agreed with Fineman once

sig. line below

[Perry Logan]

22. Hillary is a wad in this guy's panties.

[gorekerrydreamticket]

42. I've heard of panties in a wad but have never heard of someone being a

wad in someone else's panties. I'll have to think about that one. You may be right, though....

[JCMach1]

23. Teetering on the verge of victory...

It's the expectations game now...

[Joe the Revelator]

44. You're right, everyone expected Hillary to walk away with this..

the fact that she hasn't means she's lost the expectations game.

[SIMPLYB1980]

26. LoL!

[mtnsnake]

32. lmao there isn't a candidate out there who wouldn't give their right nut to be in her position

You'd think she was losing by double digits instead the other way around, the way some of these geniuses like Fineman talk.

"teetering on the brink". That's precious!

[dionysus]

33. we're democrats... you should correct that to say left nut for consistency.

[Bodhi BloodWave]

48. I can't resist replying to this one

But wouldn't it be best to lose the right nut since being a democrat it would be bad to have to rely on the right one afterward?

[Joe the Revelator]

45. Not many candidates would want to be...

in a campaign trending downwards three weeks before the primaries.

[Colobo]

34. Fineman gets it.

[Sooner in VA]

35. Fineman

I think it's ridiculous to talk about the Clinton campaign teetering on the edge. Obama has made some nice gains but that's not due to a Hillary meltdown, it's due to very hard work by the Obama campaign and a few missteps by the Clinton campaign.

Fineman isn't always on about things.

[paulk]

36. Howard "media whore of the year" Fineman?

I'll believe it when the votes actually show it. All else is speculation, and I don't need or respect the opinion of idiots like this guy.

[Andromeda]

39. This constant gloating

from the detractors of Hillary Clinton get more disgusting by the day. Howard "the duck" Fineman is a media whore just like all the other talking heads who are pumped by their own self-importance. Most of these phonies love to impress us with their "insights" and I'm certain that when they begin to tear Obama apart, and it WILL happen, his supporters will whine about how unfair the media is.

Most of the time the pundits are wrong. The only one who has any integrity left is Craig Crawford. Listen closely and you'll notice that these self-absorbed "experts" are tripping over themselves to be the one who rips Hillary the best. It's good for business, you know, because they please the powers that be.

Hating the Clintons is the popular thing to do in media circles. Sometimes they're not overt about it but it's there and it's going to be there until the day comes when they get too old and don't care anymore.

[suston96]

41. I just love to hear....

...another one of these talking heads say that "national polls don't count."

Is this a national election? Yes? And this national election is going to draw its candidates from what happens in two or three states?

Sorry, not my idea of a democracy where the vote of every single citizen means something.

[Joe the Revelator]

46. The funny thing is though...

National polls today won't mean anything on January 4th. Thats just the way it is.