2008 Senate Races

[College Liberal]

Republicans defend 22

Democrats defend 12

Safe Republican seats:
Alabama
Georgia
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Mississippi
Wyoming

Safe Democratic Seats:
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
New Jersey
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
Rhode Island
West Virginia
South Dakota

Competitive:
Colorado
Maine
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Oregon
Nebraska
New Mexico



Republican Pick-ups:
Louisiana

Democratic Pick-ups:
Virginia

Out of all the Competitive races for the '08 cycle we only have to defend 2 "weak" Democrats.

I really don't mind loosing Mary to another Democrat, hey, it could happen. Louisiana has a weired election system.

I really do think we can pick up all 7 Republican seats and then keep South Dakota, which will make Turn-Coat Joe a non-issue......

[cali]

1. I love that you posted this. I'm much more into the Senate races

at this point than the primary race. I don't agree that S.Dakota is competitive. I think Johnson is safe there. I do think Landrieu is probably a goner. Alaska isn't safe- at all. I'd put that in the competitive column. I don't know that we'll pick up 7, but I think it's safe to assume we'll pick up 4 or 5:

[College Liberal]

2. Alaska, really?

Oh yeah, the feds did raid his house so maybe we can pick that seat up. I am soooo glad that Mary might be a goner. I would rather lose 1 Dino and pick up 7 ex-Republican seats then waste money and resources on her seat.

South Dakota will be a battle, if only because of the Republican hush campaign about Johnson's health.

[cali]

9. yep, really. the raid on his house is the least of it , and I believe

he's polling behind the two dem possibles.

Johnson is polling way ahead in SD. No battle there.

[College Liberal]

10. Interesting....

Cali, where do you go to get your Senate '08 polls? I did a yahoo search and it was a bust :(

[cali]

15. Try the Cook political report and Real Clear Politics

just search around and you'll find Senate polling.

[College Liberal]

18. Thanks

:)

[riqster]

34. Keep in mind, Murkowski's election was marked by allegations

...of fraud, so she'll not be safe either, when her time comes.

[College Liberal]

36. sorry to disagree

but she won by over 15% her last election. I ain't worried and neither is the senior US Senator from Maryland

:hi:

[riqster]

39. You can't disagree with facts, junior.

Whether or not she would have won without the database hacks is beside the point.

I am sure she appreciates your support.

[College Liberal]

41. I don't understand

Barbara is popular the Ben Cardin was and he won his US Senate seat by a wide margin. So, why would Barbara be in trouble in Maryland.

Can you provide a link to this database scandal you speak of?

[riqster]

43. Lisa Murkowski, (R) Alaska is whom I'm referring to

http://dwb.adn.com/news/alaska/story/7386582p-7298824c.html">not many people remember

[College Liberal]

44. Please forgive me....

I thought you were talking about Barbara from Maryland, lol, thats why i said "I ain't worried and neither is the senior US Senator from Maryland"

I guess we both "skimmed" each others post :hi:

[jaksavage]

3. I went to a meet and greet

for Merkly who is challenging Smith in Oregon.
He says he has tons of backing and Smith is only polling 35%.
I wish him luck and hope we dump Smith.

Politicians all sound good in the beginning.
We need tern limits, at least until we get real ethics rules.

[College Liberal]

5. Our only problem

in Oregon is the lack of money Washington will send in to help the D out. But i really do believe that all 7 in the competitive column can be D pick-ups

[sniffa]

4. do we have a read on who the likely opponents are?

safe seats aren't always safe depending on circumstances.

i'm still waiting to see if the Swift Boat guy is going to make good on his promise to run against Kerry.

[College Liberal]

6. Good ?

To your first ?, i don't know. But if they plan on running, they better hurry up. And to your second ?, i am sure Kerry will have a good laugh if the guy does decided to run.....

[MaineDem]

7. What about Virginia?

Mark Warner has a great chance of winning that.

[College Liberal]

8. Oops

Sorry i overlooked VA....

[Hippo_Tron]

12. Dupe n/t

[College Liberal]

14. Thanks for the info

I am in the Hampton Roads area of VA for the Holiday, and a much needed break from school. And i do get a sense that Warner is already the presumptive winner :)

I will update the list asap.....

[Hippo_Tron]

13. There's no race in Virginia, the seat pretty much belongs to Warner

Short of Warner burning an American flag on live television, there's zero chance that Jim Gilmore will beat him.

[rep the dems]

33. Isn't that what most liberals do though?

Kidding of course :-)

[Hippo_Tron]

11. Let me give everyone some background on Louisiana

1) There is ZERO chance of Mary Landrieu losing to another Democrat. And if you think you think you can find a better Democrat that can get elected in Louisiana especially post-Katrina, I want some of what you're smoking.

2) Mary Landrieu is in for the fight of her life but she's not out by any means. It's going to be a tough race but she will have a fundraising advantage, not a top-tier Republican challenger by any means, and 12 years of seniority which is a pretty damn important after Katrina. Plus she does a great deal to help our men and women in uniform earning her the nickname "Military Mary" and even some staunch Republicans I know really appreciate her for that.

3) You can bitch about how much of a DINO Mary Landrieu is, but at the end of the day you really have to see the Republicans they put up against her to believe just how much worse they are. Woody Jenkins, her first opponent in 1996, carried around a plastic fetus with him and waved it in the air during campaign rallies. Suzzie Terrell, her opponent in 2002 claimed that Mary Landrieu has "lost her Catholicism" and made up stories about how she personally went to schools and handed out birth control.

I wish that people would do a little bit of research on Louisiana politics before commenting on our senate race.

[cali]

16. thanks for this. I'm hoping that Landrieu can hang in there and beat

Kennedy. Didn't he switich from dem to repuke just to run against her?

[Hippo_Tron]

17. Yup, it's a pretty common thing here in Louisiana

Kennedy couldn't advance his career as a Democrat so he switched over to the GOP. Walter Boasso and John Georges were both Republicans and then ran for Governor as a Democrat and Independent respectively because the state party anointed Piyush Jindal before the race even started.

[College Liberal]

20. Geez

She can have any name the REPUBLICANS want to give her. But, i do think she has hurt the D's in the Senate and than expects for them to give her help in her TOUGH re-election. The game is not played that way, sorry...


Happy Holidays.....

[Hippo_Tron]

22. How exactly has she hurt the Democrats in the Senate?

[College Liberal]

23. Um, let me count the ways.....

She votes with the opposition and therefore gives Republicans cover. "Mary voted for it, so it could not have been that bad, after all, she is a DEMOCRAT."

Didn't she vote against a major bill before congress went to recess and it failed by 1 vote?

[Hippo_Tron]

27. Find me a Republican who said "Mary voted for it so it could not have been that bad"

Most votes are not 100% party line, there are almost always some people that defect.

[College Liberal]

28. Listen

Stop. You and i both know that Mary has hurt our cause.

Sorry thats just the facts, Sir

:hi:

[Hippo_Tron]

31. No, there are no such facts

If she were hurting the Democrats, the Democratic Party wouldn't be working to get her re-elected. She gives the Democrats another seat for organizational purposes at the very least and votes with them far more than any Republican would.

She's far from perfect but I'd much rather have her as my senator than any of the Republican slime they put up against her.

[College Liberal]

35. Well, at least we can agree on one thing

she does help, but as i stated above, if she is the best LA can do than that's whats wrong with the DEMOCRATIC party......

[Hippo_Tron]

37. I'll give you that the Louisiana Democratic Party has some serious problems

But you're talking about a state that went for Bush by a pretty wide margin in 2004. On top of that, Katrina hit Southern Louisiana, which is the blue part of the state and Northern Louisiana which is the red part was pretty much untouched. The fact is that while the rest of the country is turning blue, Louisiana is turning red. At the moment Mary Landrieu's incumbency advantage gives us the only real alternative to a bible thumping Republican who will do a significantly worse job than she will in dealing with the reconstruction of our state.

There is some fresh new blood coming into the New Orleans city government and into the State Legislature but it's going to take some time for these people to become viable candidates for statewide office.

[College Liberal]

38. Negative

I only read your title and thought i would go ahead and reply.....

In the state of my birth, VA, they managed to elect a US Senator and Gov,

In the state that i call home, NC, they managed to elect D's to state wide office overwhelmingly since 1992

So, if we can do it and we went for Bush by larger margins, then why cant LA?

Could it have anything to do with Mary and DLC Democrats?

[Hippo_Tron]

60. Virginia is trending blue, thanks to the population growth of Northern VA

And North Carolina does have a very moderate DLC Democratic Governor but hasn't had a Democrat in the US Senate since John Edwards.

If you would've read my entire post you would see that a huge part of the problem is that Louisiana is going the opposite of Virginia and trending red. The population shifts from Katrina play a major role in that. Another major problem was that the media blamed our Democratic Governor for failing to adequately respond during Katrina when reality it was mostly Bush's fault.

The Louisiana Republican Party is at a high point right now. Yes, the Democrats could be better and from what I've seen at the state legislature and local level we are getting some better ones. But making the Democratic Party better isn't something that can happen over night. Plus the Republicans here have such a tendency to do stupid things that their reign might be cut short by their own incompetence. But right now the Republicans are popular and anywhere outside of New Orleans, the Democrats are on the defensive.

Mary Landrieu is, right now, the only Democrat that can be elected to that seat. Perhaps in 6 years conditions will have changed sufficiently that it won't be the case.

And if you're not going to bother to read my entire post then I'm not going to bother arguing with you.

[College Liberal]

62. Don't be silly

I was being "cute" when i said that. Geez, what has this place come to? You are a great debater, and a most worthy opponent

Merry Christmas :hi:

[rufus dog]

19. Good post

and keep your eye on the big prize. In 06 the Dems were on Defense and scored gains, I believe they picked up 8 of the 11 possible Seats. The prize is 10! and it is possible. Then whoever is the Senate Leader should publicly kick Joe out of every leadership position.

[College Liberal]

21. Thanks

I agree. The goal should be to naturalize Turn-Coat Joe


Merry Christmas

[Yukari Yakumo]

24. You're a little off

The ReThugs are defending 23 seats. (There's another seat in Wyoming you overlooked.)

[College Liberal]

25. Oops

Noted. But, they are going to win both seats in Mississippi and Wyoming

[nickinSTL]

45. sorry, maybe I'm being dense, but I don't understand the map

I was thinking that Illinois was Blue/White because Durbin is up for reelection and Obama isn't. But then in Missouri, it's Blue/Blue, which makes no sense to me, as there is no election this time in Missouri, and the Senators are one Dem (McCaskill) and one Repub (Bond). What am I missing?

[Yukari Yakumo]

46. Easy

Solid Blue - Dem seat not up for re-election.
Solid Red - Repug seat not up for re-election.
White w/ Blue Border - Dem held seat up for re-election.
White w/ Red Border - Repug held seat up for re-election.

[College Liberal]

47. another ?

some of the states have both red and blue? Iowa is a safe Dem seat so why does it have a solid half-red portion?

[Yukari Yakumo]

49. Iowa means...

One Senate seat is held by a Rethug who isn't up for re-election in '08.

The other Senate seat is held by a Dem who is running for re-election '08.

[College Liberal]

50. Thanks....

it makes perfect sense now

:hi:

[nickinSTL]

51. ok, that helps, except...

shouldn't Missouri be 1/2 solid red and 1/2 solid blue, as Bond (R-MO) and McCaskill (D-MO) are both Missouri Senators who aren't up for reelection?

[College Liberal]

53. I think you are right

I was looking at that and wondering why Missouri was solid blue. I forgot about Bond :(

[nickinSTL]

57. I expect a lot of Missourians wish they could forget about Bond...

especially with some of his most recent stupid comments.

:evilgrin:

[College Liberal]

58. Oh, so true

:hi:

[Midwestern Democrat]

26. Good list. I would change Nebraska to "Safe Republican", though.

There is absolutely no Democratic bench in Nebraska - the state's always been solidly Republican, but it's gotten much worse since the 2nd District (Omaha) went from a swing district to solid GOP in '94. Bob Kerrey is the only man who would have a prayer at winning the seat and he passed.

[College Liberal]

29. Um, not really

Ben Nelson won twice, i believe. So, it can be done

:)

[Midwestern Democrat]

48. He was elected Governor first in 1990.

The same path (Governor to Senator) that was followed by Jim Exon in '78 and Bob Kerrey in '88. The exception is Ed Zorinsky - elected in '76 - he was a Republican Omaha Mayor who changed his registration to run for the Senate as a Democrat after the state GOP threw all its support behind a different candidate (the Omaha congressman) in that year's GOP Senate primary. Unfortunately for us, there aren't any former Democratic Governors in Nebraska we can run - Exon's dead, Kerrey passed, and Nelson's already in the Senate - and it doesn't look promising that there's going to be any in the near future - the party didn't even bother to seriously contest the last two Gubernatorial elections.

[College Liberal]

52. Oh come on....

Have a little faith. We are Dem's remember? We did the impossible in '06, how quickly we forget....

[oasis]

30. kick and recommend.

[College Liberal]

32. Aww, my first kick

Thanks

:hi:

[oasis]

40. Welcome to DU.

And thank you for posting the list.

[College Liberal]

42. You are most welcome

:hi:

[laureloak]

54. I wouldn't say Liddy Dole is safe in NC.

[College Liberal]

55. sorry to disagree

But i live in NC, she ain't going anywhere :(
Sad fact of reality
She wont win by as wide a margin as she did in 2002, but Liddy will win :(

[laureloak]

56. I live in NC too. She's been a huge disappointment and I

think she's on shakey ground. I believe a strong opponent can take her seat.

[College Liberal]

59. Cool.

I am about 25-30 mins. south of Raleigh
Where are you?

[laureloak]

61. Pinehurst area. You must be from Sanford? n/t

[College Liberal]

63. Fuquay Varina, Willow Springs area

But you were close, i think. You are not to far from me. I am closer to both Raleigh and Fayetteville which is pretty cool....