Iowa button poll not very scientific, but it sells

[sniffa]

Now here’s an Iowa poll with “meaningless” written all over it, or so the statisticians would say.

At a West Des Moines mall, last-minute shoppers paused at John Olsen’s booth to buy a $3 campaign button that recorded their caucus choices.

OK, the methodology lacks anything resembling science. But let’s just say that Olsen knows what he’s doing. His “button poll” has Ron Paul heading to a surprise third-place showing among Republicans, with Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Bill Richardson poised to seriously stink it up on caucus night Jan. 3.

“I have faith in my numbers,” which show Richardson, the New Mexico governor, pulling only 2 percent of the Democratic button sales, Olsen said. “I know a lot of Iowans who say they’re supporting Richardson. But they’re not buying his buttons. That says something.”

Olsen’s running tally of the button-sale breakdown flashes on TV monitors adorning his kiosk of political memorabilia at Jordan Creek Town Center. For a nine-day period ending Christmas Eve, the GOP race shaped up as follows:

Mike Huckabee: 43 percent and “coming on out of nowhere in just the last few weeks,” Olsen said; Mitt Romney: 20 percent; Ron Paul: 17 percent; Fred Thompson: 8 percent, which ties him with John McCain; and Giuliani with 4 percent.

The Democratic field is headed by Hillary Clinton at 37 percent, Barack Obama at 30 percent; and John Edwards pulling 15 percent — a disappointment for the former North Carolina senator by any measure.

Olson insists that the parent company of his booth, Washington-based Political Americana, has overseen something called the USA Button Poll for two decades and has been wrong in only one presidential contest (that being the one in 2004).

“When somebody buys a button, you know they’re going to caucus,” Olsen said Monday as he chalked up another Clinton sale. “A pollster doesn’t know you’ll really caucus just by calling you on the phone.”

True enough, there are less-reliable ways to poll the public. Did we mention the online version, usabuttonpoll.com?

http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation/story/417739.html

i'm always fascinated by these angles. the Halloween mask poll is usually a great one, but 2004 ended that streak of predicting the winner.

[MADem]

1. Those quirky rare buttons are worth a bundle on E-Bay in a decade or two... NT

[Lucinda]

2. Think of all the money saved on polling if the campaigns just checked in with the button guy

:)

[sniffa]

3. i don't know though. 2004 obliterated all of the usuals

- the stock market poll
- the button poll
- the halloween mask poll
- the super bowl winner poll

:shrug:

[Lucinda]

4. Naw...it was a once in a life time aberrations, the lot of them. I'm sure of it. Or maybe

it was alien interference. I'm still pretty sure half our country was replaced by alien pod people. It's the only excuse for juniors re-election (outside of election fraud.) It shouldnt have been close enough to steal. Hence my alien pod people theory.

[sniffa]

5. but the Patriots won. that was supposed to guarantee a Dem victory

:cry:

[Lucinda]

6. See....thats why I'm also thinking alien interference.

When politics AND sports are involved, it's just gotta take an evil outside force to change destiny.

[Beacool]

7. As a Hillary supporter, I hope that Mr. Olsen's button poll is accurate!!!