My Iowa Prediction

[Yukari Yakumo]

After the First Round:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

After the Second Round:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

=====

I think it'll be tight between Clinton and Obama after the first tally, but my bets would be Clinton will surpass Obama by inheriting most of Biden's, Dodd's, and Richardson's supporters. Kuch's people I expect will move to Obama for Round 2.

With such a tight race, the sub-15% crowd will play the King (Queen?) maker role in Iowa.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Your theory doesn't mesh with the facts on the ground.

Sen. Clinton is not pulling 2nd choice votes, really at all, and certainly not at the percentages that she would need to defeat Obama.


Wishful thinking, but uninformed wishful thinking. If anyone will benifit from the 2nd choice, it would be Obama and John.

[snowbear]

4. Conventional rules tell us whoever is in 2nd may gain....

But once they start the process of caucusing, I think they're going to have an especially hard time getting #1 and #2 sorted out this time.

Only time will tell - - -

[JI7]

2. Edwards would benefit most in the 2nd round

based on the polls i have seen. so if it's close between the top 3 it would push Edwards to first place if he isn't already first.

[Joe the Revelator]

3. It will end up Obama-Edwards-Clinton

on Jan 3rd.

[snowbear]

6. Oh man.....

I'll keep my fingers crossed.. and if I can dig through the snow enough..

Maybe I'll find a 4-leaf clover to wish on!

[College Liberal]

8. I agree

Obama will come out on top. He will be followed by a distant John Edwards and Clinton will come in a horrid third :)

[Jennifer C]

10. That's my prediction too. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I think Richardson's support would go to Clinton, Dodd's and Biden's to Obama.

[Jennifer C]

12. Yes, I think that will be the most likely case. nt

[JDPriestly]

7. FrenchiCat, I'm going to ask you a very personal question.

How much money have you donated to your candidate. I will tell you that I have donated $200 to mine. So, I'm not asking you to tell me more than I am telling you.

[JI7]

9. huh ?

did you post in the wrong thread ? frenchi has not posted anything in this thread yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Always Follow The Money

Read the book "The Wisdom Of Crowds"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds


The money boys are putting a lot of stock in the DMR poll... Prior to the DMR poll more money was with Clinton...Now that the DMR poll has been released the money is with Obama:


http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/