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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 02:58 PM
Original message
Biden is going to have a tough time in Iowa
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:24 PM by Bleachers7
This is based on my sense of the numbers. I have never seen a poll with Biden over 15%. Each candidate needs at least 15% support to be viable in each caucus in Iowa. If the candidate falls under 15%, the supporters of the inviable candidate must move to someone else or go undeclared.

Only 3 candidates received delegates in 2004. Gephardt and Kucinich were RARELY viable and received no delegates. There's no good reason to believe that Biden will do better than Gephardt.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/IA

Kerry 1,128 38% 20 99%
Edwards 957 32% 18
Dean 540 18% 7
Gephardt 318 11% 0
Kucinich 39 1% 0
Uncommitted 15 0% 0
Clark 3 0% 0
Lieberman 0 0% 0
Moseley Braun 0 0% 0
Sharpton 0 0%
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. He's running for SECSTATE, that's my take.... nt
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AspenRose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. He will not accept VP, SOS, or any other cabinet position
He's already said as much. He will stay in the Senate if his run is unsuccessful.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #5
25. I'll bet if he's asked nicely, in the right circumstances, he will change his mind.
You NEVER admit that you'll take second fiddle or a slot in the cabinet. It diminishes your campaign.

But people do it all the time.
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. That is going to be Iowa's biggest mistake in history.
Joe Biden is the most Presidential of the lot.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. yes, he is. n/t
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. The DNC and DLC know this....
but Hillary, Obama and Edwards started the fundraising very early. Now 2-years ago, in 05, Joe Biden and Barack Obama came to the Ohio Democratic State Dinner to speak. We had a lot of Ohio Democrats then too...Strickland, Brown, Hackett...they too spoke but I noted the early starters.

Joe didn't go for the money.....he has all the Presidential grey matter required for the task. O8)
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #15
39. You might want to have a look at this link....
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #39
55. I didn't think they were at odds, Biden and the DNC/DLC ....
I just observed how he, Biden, did not go for building a war chest like the others.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #55
59. That makes one wonder why he's at this campaign. He's done it before. He KNOWS it takes money.
Not just a little money, either. A LOT.

Which brings me to my original thesis--despite his protestations, he's running for SECSTATE.
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #59
69. Indeed...................
I too have been perplexed for months on this........ He never even set-up a campaign store on his web site. His book is great...but her was only out for a week with signings.

Let's keep our eye on this because there is an underlying story. Especially with him being out exploring the field in Ohio in 05! :shrug:
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #69
80. He could be angling for an ambassadorship, but I still think he's interested in SECSTATE.
One country is just 'too small.' And UN ain't his gig, either.

I think he wants SECSTATE. If he'd weigh his words a bit more carefully, he'd be fantastic at the job. He DOES have the knowledge. He HAS done the homework.

He'd make the likes of Rice and Kissinger look like interns.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #80
82. Did you see his campaign event on CSPAN yesterday?
When he told about telling Milosovich he was a Damn war criminal? That was awesome.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #82
85. No, I wasn't near cable yesterday--I was in a "four stations, two of them Canadian" area. NT
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #80
107. He certainly would be an amazing
SOS!
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #107
146. There would be virtually no learning curve. He'd probably be able to make genuine progress on
the Palestinian question, too, instead of making bullshit 'gestures' like BushCo is doing, when it's too little and far too late.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #80
144. I think he's angling to be president...
but he's also making the point, that it shouldn't take 90 million dollars to win an election. He's at the top on the issue of campaign finance reform, so if he doesn't make it, enjoy all of this year's mega loaded superstars, because I guarantee, he will work tirelessly to see that it doesn't happen again.

He'd probably get some republican support now too....
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #144
145. It isn't going to happen. He's not going to become President, unless
he is selected as VP and the incumbent dies in office.

Never mind what it should or shouldn't take in terms of cash, or campaign finance (hell, the King of that school of thought will probably get the GOP nod) that's just simple reality.

Don't shoot the messenger, now.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #145
147. Never say never...
I prefer to remain positive, but if you prefer to remain cynical, so be it.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #147
152. I'm not cynical. I'm simply realistic.
Don't misunderstand me, I like Biden just fine, and I wouldn't "object" if he got the nod.

It just isn't going to happen.
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Auntie Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #15
151. Agreed
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. Too bad those polls are a sampling from all over the state
You have to get 15% in each precinct. There are plenty of places where he will be viable. Some where he will not be, but others where he will do just fine. He will place at least 4th. And that is good enough for now.
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BringBigDogBack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #3
20. that's right, medicswife.
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #20
61. I see your trying to boost you post
count with empty jabber.....I have seen your fangs....others too.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
4. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
I will be caucusing for Biden.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. Can I buy you a beer? lol n/t
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
22. I'll tell you what...
a bunch of Iowa Du'ers are meeting up Friday, and I will have a beer and toast you and your husband for supporting Joe!!
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #22
36. Thank you!
My husband was just saying how much he wished he could have a beer. I think it's stupid that those poor guys can't even have one beer on their day off when they're deployed. Poor hubby. :(

You guys ROCK IT for Joe tomorrow, ok?????

I'm going to get on my face and pray tomorrow, lol.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
7. Gosh golly, I HOPE so.
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
8. who knows how it's going to turn out???
I am hoping Biden will sneak in.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Me too alyce...me too. I'm going to do my damndest to make it happen.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Good for you.
I wish I could be a part of it!!! :D
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surfermaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:02 PM
Response to Original message
9. At one time I wonted him to be the VP..he ran that mouth
too much agains other candidates, and all the time he knew he didn't have a snow ball chance in Hell.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #9
18. you've just shown you have zero credibility..
Biden is the only candidate that HASN'T been running his mouth against the other candidates. Biden goes after the repukes all the time. He does not slam other Democrats.
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
70. obviously a victim of NCLB n/t
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
12. Now see, there are 2 kinds of people in this world....
those who are thought a fool, and those that open their mouth, and remove all doubt.

I'll be thrilled to rub your nose in your own shit. Bookmarking this page. See you Friday. :-)
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Hey, I hope you do.
I hope I'm wrong. I see some people saying that Biden is going to move to third. He doesn't have the organization or buzz to support that.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Ok, I just think you're being a little conservative...
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:10 PM by 1corona4u
and I haven't been looking at polls, at all. I have been reading Iowa blogs, newspapers, etc. and they tell a much different story. :-)


On edit; just got the following email;

The thermometer may have read 9 degrees outside but inside -- the Biden campaign was on fire!

My name is Raena Davis, and I'm a field organizer in Polk County, IA. Yesterday, we held a Caucus Countdown Rally at the Raccoon River Brewing Company here in Des Moines. Despite temperatures in the single digits, over 500 dedicated Iowans came out for the event to once again demonstrate the momentum for Joe Biden that has been building for months. Supporters lined the walls and overflowed into the upstairs balcony.

500? Wow, that's pretty impressive for a nobody....
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #19
28. I remember getting reports like this from the Suozzi supporters last year.
Suozzi was "moving up." He lost 80-20. Here's what I think Biden's best chance is... Hillary supporters get caught up in the hype about Obama winning and jump ship to Biden, who is politically similar and light years more likable. We'll see.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #28
43. I think the argument is going to be made at caucus...
about Hillary's divisiveness and that will sway some of her soft support, in which case thet are likely to align with Biden.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #43
47. That would be super. n/t
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #14
32. Biden and Edwards have the best volunteer organizations in my area
Not paid staffers, volunteers.

Can't buy that - not with TV and Radio and fancy literature.

The people working for those two are the people who go to caucus and who get others to go to caucus. Not some stranger that has been paid to 'come to Iowa' for a week.

Big difference in enthusiasm and action.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. ;-)
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. Do you think that Biden and Obama
will help each other out tomorrow? i.e. Biden supporters going to Obama if they aren't viable, and Obama supporters filtering to Biden to make him viable? I read something about that yesterday and have been wondering if it is actually going to happen.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #27
33. That's been floated a few times.
Sure would be nice. Regardless, I think they would make a stellar team!
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. I think so too, and though I can't see Joe taking VP for Hillary,
I would not completely write that off for Obama. Not so sure though. My preference of course, would be Biden/Obama because that would set us up for 16 years in the White House.
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #33
74. hmm...interesting Obama can be groomed by Joe to
run again in 2012?
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #74
76. Oh yeah..can you imagine?
8 years of Biden, 8 years Obama...THAT would be politics of hope. Eight years for Biden to heal this nation, and eight years of Obama taking us to new heights.WOW.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #76
77. Honestly, I think it's the BEST ticket we could run. n/t
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #21
71. great picture, they are both good guys.
I have my fingers crossed for Senator Biden.
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Steely_Dan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
16. I Just Want To Take This Time...
to thank you for posting this information for all of us. Apparently you have a lot of time on your hands. The fact that you would take the time to throw water on many of your fellow DUers who support Biden, is admirable and deserving of praise. I don't know who you support...probably one of the candidates that the media picked for you...But I can assure you that none of the Biden supporters have generated an original post with the specific purpose of dashing the hopes of you our your candidate.

Tell me who you support so I can switch right away.

-P


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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. Then you missed the point
It's a reality check. The fantastical talk about Biden coming in third is not based in reality. It's nothing personal.

I don't support anyone yet. I'll let everyone know if/when that changes.
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Steely_Dan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. So...
You're saying that Biden supporters don't live in the reality based world. How about just letting us hope? Is that too much to ask?

-P
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. Sorry Steely
I am not trying to insult you guys. If I were you, I'd hope for the same thing.
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Steely_Dan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #30
57. It's Alright...
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:34 PM by Steely_Dan
Sorry I'm so defensive.

You see, time is short and people like me are holding their collective breaths. We haven't gotten a fair shake from the media...none of the bottom tier have.

I guess when your heart and soul are into backing a candidate and you know that it will be difficult at best to see your choice beat the odds, the last thing you want to hear is that his chances are even less...even if it is reality.

I'm not giving up.

-P

PS - If you had posted this even just a week ago, it wouldn't have made a difference...does that make sense?

-P
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WheelWalker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #23
31. Reality check? Excuse me, but I reject your "reality" and substitute my own.
It's a point of personal privilege.
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Tejanocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
17. Biden could still come in 4th. I think you are mixing up the statewide 15% threshold and the 15% to
25% precinct-wide threshold.

State wide, delegates are not awarded to candidates who get less than 15% of the support. This rule applies beyond Iowa.

In Iowa (and only in the Democratic caucus) if any given candidate in any given meeting does not have 15%, his or her supporters can re-align. This could help Biden as much as it hurts him because, for example, If Biden has 10% and Dodd has 5%, then the Dodd supporters could join with the Biden supporters to make Biden viable.

In sum, will Biden get any delegates out of Iowa? It's a 100 to 1 change against. But will Biden be viable is many precincts and finish 5th or possibly 4th? Probably.

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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #17
34. EDIT: I was wrong about one part of it.
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:19 PM by Bleachers7
This part:
· Non-viable groups can join with other viable preference groups or with other
non-viable preference groups in order to attain viability.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
24. Your understanding of realignment is incorrect
:banghead:

http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/pdfs/2008_Caucus_Guide.pdf

Page 7, Item 20 of the Iowa Democratic Party's Official Caucus Guide:

Realignment
20) At this time any preference group(s) that is not viable (has fewer members than
the viability threshold) must be given an opportunity to realign.
· Non-viable groups can join with other viable preference groups or with other
non-viable preference groups in order to attain viability.
· Members of non-viable groups can choose not to realign, however they will
not be awarded any delegates if they remain non-viable.
· Members of viable preference groups are also allowed to realign if they so
desire.

++++++++++++++++++

Every MSM squawking head has gotten it wrong and ALL of the pollsters have gotten it wrong.

Nobody knows what will happen upon realignment.

Realignment is what cataputled John Edwards into 2nd place and it has the potential to do the same for whichever of the non-viable candidates is prepared to argue their case to the caucus-goers.


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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:17 PM
Response to Reply #24
35. Right..in 2004 I saw many a Dean supporter move to the Edwards camp.
Realignment made Dean become non-viable in my precinct. He started the evening with the most supporters and ended up non-viable. Figure that one out..it all came down to the question of "electability" and "experience" .
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #35
46. Kerry was the only one viable in the first round in my precinct
Edwards and Dean were able to pick up supporters and each get a delegate.

I wonder what the polls would have shown if the idiot pollsters wouldn't have asked 'If your candidate isn't viable and has to drop out which candiate will you go to?' Geez, Or 'When Biden/Dodd/Kucinich/Richardson aren't viable and have to drop out which one out of Clinton/Edwards/Obama will you go to?'

Think that may have skewed a poll or two? :eyes:
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #46
49. I have thought that for awhile
The pollster's questions often influence the outcome of the poll.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #24
37. I did get part of it wrong.
· Non-viable groups can join with other viable preference groups or with other
non-viable preference groups in order to attain viability.


You should make an OP out of this. Thanks!
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. You go ahead and to it.
You'll look like a damn genius! :P
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #24
42. So a non-viable can move to another non-viable?
Cool. I wonder how that usually works out?

So all the Dodd people can move to Richardson, and all the Richardsons can move to Kucinich, etc...

I wonder what the best strategy would be among the second-tier? Team up with a first-tier, like Obama/Kucinich, or form a Bloc among one or more longshots?
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:23 PM
Original message
I think the best move is to move people around at the top.
That's where the most influence is.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #42
45. I would imagine
that some of them end up going to one person, others go elsewhere..blah, blah, blah. This is why the second choice is always talked of as being so all fired important.

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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #42
48. ANYONE can realign. A viable can realign for another viable...
or a non-viable, a non-viable can realign for a viable or non-viable. Or not realign at all.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #42
58. If I were advising the non-viables I'd say go with the non-viable
who has the most supporters in each caucus.

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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #58
64. Why would you do that?
Wouldn't you have more influence at the top?
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #64
73. Influence in what?
After presidential preferences and delegate selection everyone goes back to equal and we move on to party business. Choosing Central Committee members and Platform Committee members, etc.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #73
81. Influence in the caucus.
Incluence to move one of the candidates from 3rd to first.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #81
90. More influence would be had in giving a non-viable candidate a shot
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:52 PM by Debi
Rather than the 'first place' candidate a huge majority.

On edit:

Why be a lemming?

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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #58
67. I think that's what I'd do too. n/t
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haroldgiowa Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #42
75. It is the realignment that counts
The first vote set the tone for the room. You go into negotiations and then realign.It is the second vote that counts. It isn't hard to understand.
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:13 PM
Response to Original message
29. Biden signed up 100 caucus chairmen in one day - drew bigger crowds than Hillary....
so stfu.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #29
41. Um, no
I won't. :shrug:
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no name no slogan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #41
66. The caucus chair doesn't pick the delegates
They just so happen to be the person chosen to convene the caucus at the previous precinct caucus in 2006.

The chair doesn't do much besides make sure the meeting goes slowly and that they clean the crap off the gym floor before they leave the building.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #66
79. I think P means 'precinct captains' a person attending caucus in support of a particular candididate
who will rally the other supporters of that candidate and try to get others (undecideds or non-viables) to join their group.

Some Temporary Chairs are also precinct captains for a specific candidate (I was both Chair and PC for Dean last cycle).

You are correct, though, the Chair has no control over the outcome of the presidential preference part of the caucuses.
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no name no slogan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #79
91. I think you are right
Although I have to admit I've usually managed to antagonize most precinct captains most years. Of course the subcaucuses I've lead have a lot of noobs and are fairly disordered (Kucinich in 2004, Wellstone in 1990, and a mess of college kids in 1988), but that's what makes direct democracy so fun, right?

Hope you have a good caucus tomorrow Debi. :hi:
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #91
93. I'm going in non-committed - I'm gonna have a blast!
Good food and great neighbors.

:hi:

What more could an Iowan ask for ?
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #93
101. An Iowan could ask you go in and stand for Biden!
You know Debijr wants you to!
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #101
116. He's been working me pretty hard.
All the other campaigns have to call or write me letters. Debi, Jr. just has to yell down the hall!

He's had a blast working with the Biden campaign, they have treated him so very well. The Senator has made him feel absolutely vital to the campaign. I'm proud of Debi, Jr. and of the candidate he chose.

But I'm still up for grabs :evilgrin:
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #116
121. Fine..I'll grab you....
if that's what it takes to get you to caucus for Joe! :evilgrin:
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no name no slogan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #116
123. Joe's a good candidate
but going uncommitted is a lot of fun, too. Especially if you have more attendees than delegates to the county-level convention :evilgrin:
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #123
125. We only have two delegates - so it's gonna be interesting
I want to see my son reach the delegate level b/c he's worked so hard.

I'll let you all know on Friday.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #125
141. Debi, talk to me like I'm 2...
how are the delegates decided?
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #141
148. Okay, I'm gonna have to PM you cuz it's gonna take me like 1/2 hour
to type it all out. (Like with pictures and everything) :P

Give me time, k?
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #148
149. LOL...
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 10:40 PM by 1corona4u
just the basics, don't go all crazy.:-) Just an overview is fine...THANKS!! And, BTW, there is a post I would like to get your feedback on, so I will reply with that link as well.
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Tashca Donating Member (935 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #125
143. only two delegates???
Wow,,,....I've never been to one with just two delegates. Don't you have to get something like 25% to be viable??.....Then nothing is still certain. I think that would be very interesting. My precinct has eleven delegates. It will be an experience for me with one that big...
Good luck!!!...
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #143
150. Yeah, we had three last cycle and then a bunch of GOPers built
McMansions out by us :eyes:

Yep, need 25% to be viable AND since we only have two delegates to award there is the potential of more than two candidates being viable and yet only the top two can receive the delegates :crazy:

But the math is really easy with a small count!
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #116
126. And I'll ask you pretty please with sugar on top.....n/t
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #126
129. Wow, the sugar on top might just win me over...heh
We'll see how good the Biden precinct captain is at realignment time.

All your positive energy needs to go to him



and his buddy Joe!
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #129
130. Would it help that it's organic turbinado sugar to boot? n/t
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #130
133. Man, you're good n/t
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #133
136. Thanks! :) I bought it just in case someone needed that extra
little bump over for Biden. :) That and for my hubby whenever he gets to come home on R&R, man I'd love to tell him on Friday that Joe kicked butt in the caucuses!
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #129
138. I have absolute faith in him....but only if he can win over his own mother!
wink wink
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #138
140. Tell him to get some organic turbinado for her from me! lol n/t
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #79
102. Thank you for correcting me!
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #102
114. Well, WE knew what you meant
:P
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #29
88. *cough* you mean precinct captains *cough* n/t
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Tejanocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #29
104. Isn't it kind of late to still be recruiting precinct captains and to have 100 spots unfilled?
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #104
120. Out of 1,781? no
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 04:26 PM by Debi
But look at it this way. Biden now has them and some other campaign doesn't.

Isn't it kind of late to be losing precinct captains to a second tier candidate?
(and why is the support of a candidate so soft this late in the game? Tomorrow is the caucuses).
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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:22 PM
Response to Original message
44. I think about how Dean carried the momentum in '04 & it seemed obvious he would win.
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:23 PM by 8_year_nightmare
Kerry's behind-the-scenes meetings with Iowans didn't get as much coverage, but it paid off.

I watched the C-Span coverage of a Biden campaign stop yesterday & several approached him after his speech to tell him they had been undecided but he had won them over after listening to him. One of them had a 57-year-old husband, a veteran, who had been called to go to Iraq. There are many undecideds making the rounds & I hope they are as impressed as I am that Biden isn't wrapped up in oratorical rhetoric; when he speaks, it comes across as natural, & from experience. He knows what the issues are, he knows them well & is very much at ease in explaining how they should be handled.

We'll see.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #44
51. He is very much at ease, isn't he? n/t
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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #51
60. He's a natural. And I liked what he said at the end of his speech...
(p/p) "I can't wait to face the Republican nominee." I think he could put any one of them to shame & deep embarrassment in a debate. :)
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #60
63. Yeah, the part about not being able to wait to take on Huckabee
or Romney and ask them where in the gospel it says that torture is ok...
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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #63
87. I loved it, as did the crowd!
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #87
89. I like when he gets fired up. :) That's when he's at his best.
I would love to see him debate any of the Republicans, he'd tear their throats out.
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #44
53. Did you hear what David Brooks said last week?
That if Democrats really want to win the WH they should nominate either Biden or Dodd ;)

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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #53
54. Yep! I saw that! Let's all drink to Biden! :) n/t
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #54
56. Tomorrow is drinking day :)
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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #53
65. Yes, & that was one statement coming from him that I can believe to be true.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
50. Thank you for editing your thread title.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #50
52. NP
The fact that people can move to other non-viables makes a difference. I think Debi is correct about something. Once people see that Hillary is in trouble, it will drive her even lower.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #52
72. That's why second choices are so important at caucus..
Even if I supported one of the top three, if I came to my caucus and found my first choice had plenty of support, I could (and would) realign to give my second choice a boost...many caucus goers do this.
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
62. Polls, schmolls - talk to me on Friday
:hi:
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #62
68. I hate those goddammed schmolls...
you should see what they've done to my lawn!
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #68
78. posted by lolling trolls...
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 03:45 PM by 48percenter
how droll.
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #78
131. LOLL! n/t
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #68
111. LOL...
I use to have a schmoll...I flushed him out with garden hose, and whacked him over the head with a 2X4, LOL. Problem solved. :-)
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #111
117. That technique works well with republicans too...
who, incidentally, are far more destructive.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #117
124. AAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAhahahahaha....
Too funny!!
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #117
134. You think they'll let me near Mitch McConnell with a 2x4? n/t
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #134
139. Well...probably not...but it might be fun to try...
I'd personally go for Lindsay Graham...mr. pastyfacedweaselsexscandalwaitingtohappen.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #139
142. I'm in McConnell's state. When I found out we had orders to Ft. Campbell,
that was the first thing I said. "Oh no, not McConnell's state."
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #62
109. LOL...
That's exactly how I feel about it.
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gateley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:47 PM
Response to Original message
83. I'm no expert, but
I bet Biden supporters will stand strong. Why leave Joe? They are solid enough in their support for them that they can get others to join him where he's not vialbe and where he is viable will welcom others into his group.

Biden supporters don't back down, I bet many of them don't have a second choice because Joe is the man!

I'd be wary if my candidate was weak or had wishy-washy support. I bet Biden supporters could steal them away in a heart beat.

I believe in Joe and I know Iowans who are caucusing for him do too.

:7:
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #83
95. You know, I believe that too...
I often list Obama as my second choice, but I can't imagine realigning. I feel so strongly about Joe that it's unlikely I would stray from his camp, even if he not viable in my precinct.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #95
96. I would have trouble too. n/t
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #95
115. Ditto. It seems to be the one thing we all have in common...
I don't think I have ever heard a TRUE supporter change their mind. They're in it for the long haul.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #83
118. Man, you Bidenites ARE strong in your support!
Genius, pure genius!

:hi:
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haroldgiowa Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #83
122. That's just it.
The best any of them could be is his equal. Why go with a second choice, when you got the real deal.
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Jillian Donating Member (577 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:47 PM
Response to Original message
84. I wish I had a crystal ball that told me how tomorrow will turn out.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #84
86. OH, but the suspense is sooooo exciting! n/t
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gateley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #84
128. No crystal ball needed. Biden comes in second. Amen. nt
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haroldgiowa Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
92. It is hard to poll a caucus reliably
There are nearly 2000 separate caucuses for the Democratic Party. Everyone has just enough difference to make the outcome different. If you have a precinct captain that can get people to the caucus you are ahead of the game. You have to treat every caucus as a stand alone vote. If you have a captain everywhere that can get ten to fifteen people to a caucus you are going to do well. One year I was elected to move to the county convention with three people in my group. It take more this year, but in some areas it won't take much more.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #92
94. Sway as many over to Biden as you can!
My husband is in Iraq right now, Sgt. Grant Johnson, and he just told me that his unit is getting MRAP's because of Biden. They just lost three guys about a month ago in an IED attack that wouldn't have died if they'd have had those MRAP's. He wants anyone in Iowa to know just how much what Sen. Biden is doing for the troops means to him.
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haroldgiowa Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #94
97. I will do my best
And tell your husband I am one Iowan who thanks him for his service.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #97
98. I will! Thanks! Our four kids and I thank you too! n/t
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #97
100. Will you be at the meetup on Friday haroldg?
We can toast medic and medicswife together!
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haroldgiowa Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #100
105. I don't know yet.
I will have to see if my daughter will drive me. If I do go it will just be for a short time.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #105
112. PM me or one of the other Iowegians if you need a ride!
I won't be staying long myself...Ihave to work early Saturday.
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haroldgiowa Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #112
119. She might take me.
If I buy her some potatoe skins. I ask her to give me a ride to my caucus and she said I could walk. I will need to take the back door to get there in time.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #100
108. And toast the 101st Airborne 327th infantry in Baiji, Iraq! n/t
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #108
113. I will.
I just wrote it in my little purse notebook so I would be sure to do so. I gotta'remember to take my camera.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #113
127. cool, I'd love to send my husband a picture! n/t
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Jillian Donating Member (577 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
99. Wasn't there once a time when a post like this would be considered flamebait?
It is obvious the OP wanted to pit the Biden supporters against the Biden bashers.

DU rules must not matter anymore.
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #99
103. Well, we've made it positive...looks like all the
Biden supporters descended quickly and took back the night!
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Steely_Dan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #99
106. Yep...See my post early on.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #99
110. I wish I was that macheavelian.
:think:
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #110
132. Is that a kind of chocolate?
yum, chocolate :P
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #132
135. Did someone say chocolate?
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medicswife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #135
137. Yeah, Godiva for those who caucus for Biden. n/t
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