Reality Check: tomorrow is the start of the process, not the end

[onenote]

Good grief. If there is one thing that is virtually certain (although I will admit that nothing is absolutely certain), it is that Obama, Clinton, and Edwards will still be running for the nomination on Friday, no matter what order they finish in the Iowa caucuses. WHile the media is having a field day playing up the Iowa caucuses (with an unprecedented level of coverage) and while bloggers and others seem to have bought into the hype, Iowa is the beginning of the process and any one of the three front runners has the ability to recover from a second or third place finish.

[cali]

1. Actually, no.

Edwards cannot recover from a third place finish. It's really not the beginning of the process for him. It's both the alpha and the omega.

[Stop Cornyn]

6. Nor can Obama. A third place finish in Iowa would end Obama's hopes of winning New Hampshire, and

the failure to win in either Iowa or New Hampshire would doom Obama down the line.

The ONLY scenario where Obama could survive a 3rd place finish in Iowa is if Edwards wins Iowa and Hillary wins New Hampshire and Obama places second in New Hampshire.

[tokenlib]

2. Sadly the process is going to be real brief...

...and most of us won't even have a say in it..

[Stop Cornyn]

3. Don't kid yourself, it's the end for 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place and a mortal wound for anyone else

who finishes measurably below Hillary.

If Hillary wins, it's all but over and there's only one ticket out of Iowa.

If Obama or Edwards come in a distant third, it's all but over for that campaign and there are only two tickets out of Iowa.

If anyone other than Hillary finishes 4th, there's only 3 tickets out of Iowa.

[onenote]

5. I must have missed the part of my post where I talked about the 5th, 6th, 7th etc

Maybe you can enlighten me. What did I say about anyone other than the top 3?

[Stop Cornyn]

7. I just meant to be inclusive. You spoke of the top 3. I think 4 could come out of Iowa under the

unlikely circumstance that Hillary finishes 4th.

Basically, no one who finishes below Hillary comes out alive.

[onenote]

4. I guess we will see how it plays out over the next few weeks.

IMO, Obama, Clinton, and Edwards all stay in the race until after Super Tuesday.