Either ARG or Zogby, or both, will see their reputation die tomorrow

[antiimperialist]

Now that ARG and Zogby have released what appear to be the last pre-caucus polls, and with the results being very different (ARG showing Hillary with a comfortable 9% while Zogby shows Obama leading Clinton by 7%). These are the scenarios:

Edwards wins: Both ARG and Zogby would be embarassed because neither predicted an Edwards win.

Hillary beats Obama by close margin: Zogby embarassed because it has Hillary trailing everyone else, and trailing Obama badly.

Hillary kicks everyone's butt: ARG will look very good while Zogby will probably have to find another profession.

Obama kicks everyone's butt: Zogby would look good while ARG would never be trusted again.

Obama wins by close margin: ARG will be embarassed because it predicted neither the winner nor the tight margin.

Edwards beats the others by a wide margin: Rest in peace, ARG and Zogby.

[Renew Deal]

1. Don't forget DMR and Insider Advantage

[jefferson_dem]

2. ARG never had one to lose.

n/t

[Buzz Clik]

3. Not a chance. People are addicted to polls, even radically wrong polls.

The big winners could be Gravel and Keyes, and no one would care.

[frazzled]

4. If it ends up being a close 1-2-3, then they're all off the hook

more or less.

If the candidates, in any order, end up with only a few percentage points between them ... then it is back to ground zero. The race will be fought elsewhere.

[MGKrebs]

5. I doubt it. By that logic, Joe Trippi wouldn't be working anymore either.

At least not in politics.

[TwilightZone]

6. Memories are short.

Only political junkies remember prior polls, and even then, there is little agreement on whether or not the polls matched the results.

[rinsd]

10. Yup.

Christ there's maybe a score of DUers here who know all the reps & track records for the various polling agencies.

[rinsd]

7. Zogby maybe but ARG is not exactly America's favorite pollster or anything.

I doubt that beyond the poll junkies among us, few are aware of their existence, let alone track record.

[suston96]

8. "...neither predicted"? Something you are forgetting.....

....polls do not predict winners. They are snapshots of a moment in time of what a population sample is thinking..

When and if pollsters are stupid enough to "predict" an election outcome, they will say so.

That is not to say that the Zogbys of the world do not manipulate their numbers to cover their asses.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Yes But With A Caveat

When you are releasing a poll on the eve of an election or a caucus you are predicting the winner...

[suston96]

14. When you are releasing a poll on the eve of an election or a caucus you are predicting the winner..

Maybe so, but I see it more as an ass covering depending on the direction of the political wind.

I have followed polling for many years. They don't predict. They, uh - adjust.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. IMHO , Zogby Is A Charlatan-You Can See My Remarks Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3935044

[BenDavid]

12. One has to know the difference between Zogby Interactive and

Zogby polling i e C-Span. The ZI is incorrect as I stated last month when the ZI sent out a poll through email to its members and out of my small group of 53 only 2 received the mailing. Now I could say that maybe I deleted the mailing by mistake but 50 others deleting is a bit of a stretch. The Zogby polling used in relation to the c-span poll is the correct polling.

ARG is a good indicator of where the people's minds are at the time. Thus far they have been right about their polling in relation to where the people are at that snap shot of time. I trust no poll that does not sample over 1000 people in every poll. I am not saying Pew is the best but they do a complete sampling and to me this organization is one of the best.

The polling from all these organizations are correct by the way they sample, but there is one big difference in a caucus then voting in a primary. So whomever is the winner i e polling organizations or rather in this case the loser should not be viewed has not taking serious their polling in the future.....

Ben David

[JCMach1]

13. Edwards by less than 5...