It's easy, in the jangle that your nerves becomes as the primary starts, to get caught up in the dip and rise of the roller coaster and forget that it almost always ends up at the same station. As such, I think it's useful to take a deep breath right about now and remember some fundamentals, insofar as McCain.
McCain is loved by the media, and loved by the New Hampshire independents, but that's it. He's not the establishment candidate, its fairly clear Romney is in that role this year. And with the Republican party, you almost never bet against the establishment and expect to win. You can lose both Iowa *and* New Hampshire, as has been proven, and win. McCain is still hated by the core of the republican party, and by the moneyed interests that tend to decide things in the end. The South Carolina firewall will do him in just like it did last time.
More to the point, McCain has no money, and therefore no ground presence. He's nothing in Iowa, where ground presence is necessary, and Iowa always shapes New Hampshire. Furthermore, what's going to happen when the rest of the primaries occur?
I could see Mike H. finally raising the successful theocon rebellion to the nomination, Iowa and the south helps, there's a core of support from a main constituency of the *Republican* voters. But McCain? McCain's constituency is independents. They won't even get to vote in alot of the primaries.
McCain might with NH, but he's not winning anything else. It's Romney. Romney has the least enemies, and the most (sort of) friends. And he has the constituency that has ultimately decided every modern republican contest: Money.
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