Psyching Out the Caucuses - "You take one more step and you'll be sorry"

[Herman Munster]

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1699197,00.html?cnn=yes

You take one more step and you'll be sorry," Jimmy Hogan, a precinct caucus captain for Jimmy Carter in Monticello, Iowa, bellowed across his living room at his daughter. And with her prompt pirouette, all hopes of seeing Ted Kennedy elected President died. The year was 1980 and Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist for Ted Kennedy, had learned a crucial lesson: The Iowa caucuses are as much about group psychology — and sometimes the deference of a child to her parent — as they are about politics.

Then fresh out of college and eager to tackle his first presidential race, Trippi — who has worked on every contested race in Iowa since 1980 — had organized all of Monticello's youngsters to caucus for Kennedy. His rival, Hogan, host of the county's largest caucus, had likewise organized the precinct's parents to caucus for Carter. When none of the kids dared defy their parents' wishes, Kennedy lost the precinct — and the county. "I remember being in the kitchen a few weeks before that when Ethel Kennedy came to visit our house, campaigning for Ted," James Hogan, Jr., Jimmy's son, recalls chuckling. "Some Kennedy aides were lamenting that Carter could bomb Iowa with B-52s and the caucuses would still go for Carter."

Carter had forged the model on how to win the caucuses and the White House. He was one of the first politicians to realize the importance of winning in first-in-the-nation Iowa and he invested heavily in the state back in 1976 — and again in 1980, winning the caucuses that year 59% to Kennedy's 31%. Iowans appreciated Carter's personal investment in the state, the time he spent pressing the flesh with as many caucus-goers as possible. These days the top three Democratic candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards (for whom Trippi is working this cycle) — have all adhered to Carter's model, visiting a majority of Iowa's 99 counties, investing months of their lives, hundreds of staff and tens of millions of dollars each.

But, as the Hogan family demonstrated, there are no guarantees on caucus day. Caucus-goers may enter the room in one camp, but can easily be cajoled by a boss, spouse or neighbor into supporting a different candidate. Or they may find that their favored candidate didn't meet the viability threshold — any candidate who fails to garner at least 15% of support after the first vote is disqualified, and his or her supporters are forced to pick their second choice. "I think it's a pretty good form of democracy," says Richard Bender, the original architect of the caucuses, who designed them to ensure that minority voices (e.g., anti-Vietnam voices, then) in the party were fairly represented and had a say in electing delegates to the state convention. "The 15% rule some people don't like. If I'm for Candidate X, well, if they only get 4% maybe their chances of making it to the end isn't great, so maybe it's best to throw your weight behind someone with viability."

[chascarrillo]

1. Duplicate.

But the pre-loss spin is admirable.