So says Jeffrey Toobin
(CNN) — There's a lot to watch in Iowa, of course, but I'm going to be keeping an eye on the results from tiny Warren County (pop. 44,000), which includes several suburbs south of Des Moines. Since 1980, Warren has been an uncanny bellwether for the results statewide, and this hold true for both Democratic and Republican races. In 1980, George H.W. Bush won Warren with 32 percent of the vote — the same as his winning statewide total. In 1988, Bob Dole won 36 percent in both Warren and the state. On the Democratic side, Al Gore won 64 percent in 2000, one percent more than his statewide total. In 2004, John Kerry won 37 percent in Warren, 38 percent in the state. It's almost bizarre. We should be getting the results in Warren, and the rest of Iowa, starting a little after 8 p.m. EST.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/03/toobin-keep-an-eye-on-warren-county/