cali
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:20 AM
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My New Hampshire predictions |
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Obama 43% Clinton 32% Edwards 21% Richardson 4%
New Hampshire is expecting a huge turnout. Heard it this morning on VPR and BBC.
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still_one
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:21 AM
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1. how were your predictions on Iowa? /nt |
cali
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:25 AM
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2. Obama 34%, Edwards 29% |
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and Clinton, I believe, 26%. Not perfect, but not bad. I thought Biden would do better though.
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ccpup
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:31 AM
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that was damn good!
Except you underestimated Clinton and, taking into account her husband's famously dismal showings in the State when he was running and the fact that she was facing someone who had immense momentum going in to yesterday and had all but lived in the State for the past four years, the fact that she came within .3 of beating him was breathtaking.
Obama has to step up his game now. Something tells me the race will get reallllllly interesting from now on.
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still_one
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:58 AM
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8. ummmm, that was pretty good prediction /nt |
Bread and Circus
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:08 AM
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9. That's frickin' amazing if u called it like that. |
cali
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:17 AM
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10. Nah, another poster called it almost perfectly yesterday |
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I was off by quite a bit, really. I got the order right, but missed on how many pts Obama won by, and I never saw the near tie between Edwards and Clinton.
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gaiilonfong
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:27 AM
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3. From your mouth to the voters fingers n/t |
ccpup
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:27 AM
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Clinton 41% Obama 39% Edwards 18% Richardson 2%
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SheilaT
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:29 AM
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5. Sometimes, it seems to me, |
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that the voters in New Hampshire very much want to set themselves apart from those in Iowa. It's their way of saying they won't play follow-the-leader, they won't let Iowa determine the candidate.
And of course, the real question is: just how many convention delegates have been determined in Iowa, how many will be determined in New Hampshire?
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arewenotdemo
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:15 PM
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17. They set themselves apart (from the rest of the Blue North) in 2000 |
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and so gave us Bush.
Here's hoping they don't derail Barack.
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maxanne
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
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In 2006 we were the only state in the country to turn blue.
We didn't give you Bush. The Supreme Court gave you Bush, Katherine Harris and Jeb gave you Bush, voter tampering gave you Bush, Al Gore's weenying out gave you Bush, every voter who sat out the election gave you Bush.
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arewenotdemo
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:42 PM
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20. Several factors, sure. But a red state in the heart of New England? |
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Gore wins if it had gone for him. Painful truth.
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maxanne
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:51 PM
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it's certainly easier to believe that than use any critical thinking skills.
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arewenotdemo
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
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I have to live with my birth state (Ohio) dragging the Union down in 2004. I really believed it was going to make me proud. Silly, maybe...and obviously naive.
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Dawgs
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:31 AM
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6. That looks pretty good. |
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I was thinking that it might be closer than that, but Edwards was already down in NH. I think Obama grabs at least 10% from all candidates not named Hillary, and maybe 1 or 2 percentage points from Hillary herself. Also, Iowa showed us that the youth vote is not to be ignored this time.
Obama will win with ease in NH.
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Robbins
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
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I think based on part on Independents Obama wins.i think it will be closer with Hillary than In Iowa.This could be bad news for Mccain.Obama does well with Independents,and many Independents agree with Democrats on Iraq not all Is going right Mccain.Some of these polls with Hillary ahead here had her ahead In Iowa or had her ahead of Edwards for second.Don't forget In 2004 Dean was ahead here till Kerry won In Iowa.
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Bullet1987
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:28 AM
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12. I also predicted Obama, Edwards, and Clinton at |
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Obama: 31% Edwards: 29% Clinton: 26%
No one expected the 2nd tier to drop off the face of the earth the way they did. And no one expected Obama to beat Clinton by 9 points and Edwards by 8. As far as NH, if you get record turnout like Iowa, that heavily favors Obama. I expect Obama to also break the 40% threshold...these are my pre-polling numbers
Obama: 41% Clinton: 36% Edwards: 21%
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Robbins
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
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I predected the finish would be Obama,Edwards,and Hillary.Obama did higher totals than I thought as did Edwards and Hillary.I thought It would be more 2 points between Edwards and Hillary.I did think Biden would do better than he did.The momentum Is on Obama's side.Remember all the attacks on Obama by the Clinton people.and If Republicans decide to go with Mccain wouldn't It be a nice thing to have a young charismic candiate against him?
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Kahuna
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Fri Jan-04-08 08:28 PM
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14. I think Obama and Hillary will be very close. But Obama will |
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prevail within 5 pts. But I hope you're right.
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Mike03
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Fri Jan-04-08 08:29 PM
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15. Cali, your predictions are fascinating and so often accurate. |
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Edited on Fri Jan-04-08 08:30 PM by Mike03
Didn't you call Huckabee months before anyone else?
You were talking about him as a victor in particular primaries way, way before anyone else even noticed him.
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Yukari Yakumo
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Fri Jan-04-08 08:35 PM
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I'll probably be way off...
1. Clinton 37% 2. Obama 36% 3. Edwards 19% 4. Richardson 6% 5. Kucinich 1% 6. Gravel <1%
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merbex
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Fri Jan-04-08 09:23 PM
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19. It's possible that Hillary could come in 3rd again in NH;everything depends |
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on that debate.
If she gives off a whiff of desperation tomorrow you may see a lot of her mushy support go to Edwards.
By mushy I mean the "leaning to Hillary" but still undecided.
I have been up there enough this summer and Fall to conclude that her supporters have a real antipathy toward him and his campaign.
The only prediction I am willing to make is that Obama will win NH
Second is wide open
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itsrobert
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Fri Jan-04-08 10:08 PM
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23. Her speech did not help her tonight |
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She's in free fall. Edwards may beat her.
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