What kind of bump will Obama see in NH? What kind of hit will Hillary take

[Quixote1818]

in the NH polls?

Thoughts?

[annie1]

1. Yesterday 3 people started threads after Obama won saying they were now for obama...

so i'd say quite a bit of a jump if that's common place thinking.

[Renew Deal]

2. 3% each way

I think it will be around there. Maybe some erosion for Edwards too.

[TheWraith]

3. I recall that there's typically a double-digit swing...

...between the gains for the winner of Iowa, and the losses for whoever is interpreted as losing Iowa. My money says next poll out of NH, taken after the caucuses, shows Obama with an 8 point lead on Clinton.

[RoveRage]

4. It's coming so fast on the heels of Iowa that...............

.....I don't think she has time to really change her message. And if she does have to change her message, then WTF vote for her?????

[Quixote1818]

5. It's going to look transparent if she does. Will probably backfire. nt

[RoveRage]

7. Agreed, as I said, she's in deep doo imho.

[ccpup]

6. hard to say

with a solid majority of NH voters saying they've "strongly" decided who they're voting for and "highly" unlikely to change their minds, I don't know if you'll get a massive swing of support either way.

And with the Primary next Tuesday (for Christ's sake!), whatever bump there is may or may not register and any stumble a candidate makes may or may not change minds.

Is that clear? :evilgrin:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

8. God, it's hard to say.

I'm just guessing Obama's going to open his lead even further, Edward's is going to do OK, and Clinton's going to drop even further, with talk about dropping after NH.

But that's just a guess.

[juajen]

9. Clinton will not drop after NH and I believe she can still win in NH.

NH does not automatically follow what Iowa does; sometimes just the opposite. If they are definitely set on their candidate, she might possibly lose a couple of points. I don't think it will be enough to defeat her there, but I could be wrong. Just sayin'.