If Hillary LOSES New Hampshire, how Many People Here Will Be Realists?

[Bullet1987]

Sometimes with Presidential campaigns, it takes a while for the truth to sit in and marenade. I agree, you can't say Clinton is done after simply Iowa. But what about New Hampshire? How likely is it that she'll win SC or NV after that and two straight loses? How likely is it that the Super Delegates someone mentioned earlier will stick with her for the long haul once they see the wind is changing? If you're honest, you have to admit that she's against the ropes now. Which is why New Hampshire is so important for the future of her candidacy. If Obama wins NH, she's down for the count.

[YOY]

1. I think Iowa is a shock enough for many of them

After all the "polling data" that has been shoved down our throats.

[skipos]

2. I agree , if she loses NH, I don't see how she can come back. nt

[RoveRage]

3. She's toast if she loses N. Hampshire, and actually.....

....I think she's already toast.

[maddiejoan]

4. Not really.

She's in it until Super Tuesday.

But thanks for your concern.

[Bullet1987]

5. Of course she'll be "IN IT"

technically-speaking. It's not like she'll drop out.

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. What happens if she doesn't lose?

[goldcanyonaz]

9. We spin it so that it appears as though she lost. Didn't you get the memo?

Oh, and if that doesn't work, we start 100's of threads about how bad she will lose in the GE.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Then it becomes a tight race between Obama and Clinton.

But if Hillary goes down 2-0 to Obama, it will be difficult for her to find any traction in the race.

If she does win, however, the race will tighten and I don't think anyone can predict a winner.

[ccpup]

20. even if she places an incredibly close 2nd

-- within one percentage point --, she's still in the race and can still find traction. Bill lost both States in 1992 and still got the nomination. In fact, I think he lost five States before he won his first, so there's no way she's throwing in the towel.

Now, if she loses HUGE on Super Tuesday -- and many of the Polls show her with healthy 20 point leads in those States --, that's another problem.

But Obama has tons of work to do to get this Nomination. I hope he and his Team realize that.

[loveangelc]

26. Oh they do. But theyre not going to give up just like Hillary said she won't.

I wonder if five months ago Hillary would believe the position she would be in right now.

[ccpup]

46. having watched Bill drop twenty points

in NH in a week in 1992, I'm sure Hillary is much more aware of what might be lurking around that political corner than Obama is. He's taking his Victory Lap while she's out earning each vote, taking nothing for granted.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. A loss is a loss.

Especially since Hillary has led for much of the year there. It doesn't matter how slim, the media will spin it as Hillary being down 0-2 where it counts.

[surfermaw]

36. This is going to be intresting .are the democrats going to rush to Hillary or Edwards

Watch them do one or the other.

[TwilightZone]

7. Does the reverse apply?

If Hillary wins NH, should Obama and Edwards supporters throw in the towel?

[rinsd]

8. The race is likely to be over one way or the other come Feb 5th.

If Obama loses NH and then SC, is his race over?

No. Both he and Clinton have enough money and clout to play for Super Dooper Tuesday.

After that, this thing is over.

[quinnox]

10. It all comes down to super tuesday

That is when a ton of delegates are given out.

Hillary can even survive a NH loss to Obama. Would it be a good sign? No, of course not. But California is a big player on super tuesday and has the most delegates in play of all the states, so if Obama can beat her in California and New York then he deserves the nomination.

[Kucinich4America]

11. If Hillary loses New Hampshire, she really needs to drop out.

Because she doesn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning South Carolina. And if you're down 0-3, is there any point to staying in?

[jgraz]

15. Yes, if you have the money and corporate backing.

I guarantee she'll be in it until Super Tuesday and maybe beyond if she manages to pick up any wins there.

[jgraz]

13. She's got the money to stay in till the end

A third-place finish in NH will probably finish her with the media, but she won't drop out. Remember: She's in it to WIN! :puke:

[Double T]

14. If HRC or Edwards wins REALLY BIG in New Hampshire..........

how many devout Obama backers will GET REAL?

[NoPasaran]

16. My reality-denial mechanisms are highly developed

I rode the Dean rocketship all the way down to the ground in Wisconsin, after all.

It's never over until someone actually has 2,182 delegates.

[ieoeja]

24. You realize she will fire Dean and reverse his 50 State Strategy?

Remember 2005 when the Clintons and the DLC led the fight to keep Dean out as DNC chair? Remember following the 2006 elections when the DLC claimed they would have won MORE seats if not for Dean despite the fact that DLC's strategy was to NOT run candidates in most of the districts where we took seats away from the Republicans because, according to the DLC, "a Democrat can not win in that district"?

The #1 reason I oppose Clinton is precisely because of what they did to the DNC when Bill was president (shut down state offices in "red" states).

Of course, it could be pure coincidence that we lost control of those state legislatures, governorships and congressional districts right after the DNC packed up their bags and left the Democrats in those states high and dry.

[NoPasaran]

34. Dean is gone as DNC Chair after this year anyway

Whoever wins the White House is going to choose his successor.

[ieoeja]

44. True. But will they re-implement DLC strategy?

Hillary did not just work to keep Dean out of the Chair. She has also attacked him and his DNC strategy a couple times since then. I think it is safe to say that if she gets to pick his successor, then she will pick someone who will reverse Dean's winning strategy.

For the record, the DNC does not *have* to elect the president's nominee as chair. Given what happened last time it is possible they would ignore President Hillary's recommendation and go with someone else. But I doubt it as it would weaken an incoming president if they were repudiated by their own party. Sort of like how weak it made Bob Dole look going into the general election when the '96 RNC rejected his entire platform.

[incapsulated]

17. Please

Last time a Clinton ran for president, he lost Iowa *and* NH.

And that man became President of the United States.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[comradebillyboy]

18. I think she can afford a close loss to Edwards

but not to Obama. if she pulls it out and manages to get the nomination this experience will have been very good for her. As Hillary fan I must admit it was a very impressive win for Obama against much better opponents than Alan Keys. Edwards is in a lot of trouble because his second place wasn't close to Obama and just fractionally better than Clinton.

[ccpup]

19. there is nothing the Obama camp wants more

than for Hillary to throw in the towel. But if she places a very, v-e-r-y close Second in NH, wins NV and then ekes out a win in SC, there is no way in Hell she'll give up. This is a woman who doesn't say "oh well, I'm done" and just concede.

She's got a financial war chest, has 20 point leads in most of the Super Tuesday States and they would have to be virtually devastating 15 to 20 point losses in NH, NV and SC for those numbers to swing that much in Obama's favor. Especially since he doesn't appear to have the endorsements and ground troops she currently does in CA, NY, NJ and PA.

He does lead in IL, though. But that is his home State, so ...

[Kucinich4America]

23. But isn't IL also Hillary's home state?

Meaning her real home state. Not the one she moved to purely for political reasons.

[Catherine Vincent]

42. oops, I misread you.

Sorry. :blush:

[ccpup]

45. one she left in the 1970s

when she moved to Arkansas to be with Bill.

A home State supporting their sitting Senator is not all that surprising. In their respective Polls, IL has Obama with a twenty point lead and NY has Hillary with a twenty point lead. Nothing earth shattering about that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. She's In It To Super Tuesdsay When Half The Delegates Will Be Chosen

I think that it's fair to let the majority of Democratic voters determine her fate ...

[Kucinich4America]

25. Maybe the electability myth will be pounded into peoples heads by then, like it was in 2004?

Oh wait... that was a DLC operation. Never mind. They'll still be claiming Hillary is the winner if she LOSES Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious Tuesday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I'm Sorry You Don't Like Voting For Our Leaders

~

[ieoeja]

22. At least one Hillary supporter on DU ceded IA, NH and SC before last night.

But keeps repeating (in post after post after post after ...) that Obama will not win another state (except IL) because only Hillary has a national campaign strategy. Where he gets the idea Obama does not have a national campaign strategy is beyond me. But that is what the poster keeps insisting.

[Gman]

27. One round out of 50 and you pronounce her "against the ropes"

Obama's "win" was hardly a mandate much less a clear cut win. The big states have yet to weigh in. Recent history is that Iowa and New Hampshire are increasingly irrelevant and absolutely no indication of who will get the nomination.

Obama is a flash in the pan. The question should be how graceful will the Obamaites be when Hillary wraps this thing up in February?

A side question is how many of the newly signed up/haven't posted in 4 years, no star, less than 1,000 posts DU'ers that have agitated against Hillary will throw a tantrum and vow to never vote for a Democrat in the general election, much less Hillary? I expect as many as half, if not much more. Lots of tombstoning in the future.

[Kucinich4America]

31. Hillary Clinton will never be President of the United States.

Accept that reality now, and get used to it.

[Gman]

39. You are so sure of it

it will be an overwhelming disappointment to you when she's inaugurated next January.

[rucky]

28. She's still in a good spot for Super Tuesday. nt

[Bitwit1234]

30. Explain to me please please please how in the hell Obama

will win ONE SOUTHERN STATE. And he is going to have a hell of time to win ANY REAL MIDWESTERN STATE....Tell me please...how many racist are them out there who are going to vote for Obama. Hillary probably doesn't stand a chance because of the constant battering the press does on her. If Obama had 1/10 the shit thrown at him that Hillary has he would be in one of cheney's undisclosed locations. Edwards is the best chance we have for the presidency, I would love for Hillary to win, but she has too much to overcome what with the press, the republicans and the sexist out there.

[RBInMaine]

40. How does HILLARY win ONE southern or western state???

MUCH of Obama's support last night came from I's and crossover R's. He has much more crossover appeal than does Hillary who is so polarizing. I like Hillary, but she is the riskiest candidate in the general election by far.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

32. You know, if they had they're heads screwed on straight already...

...I don't think I need to finish this sentence.

[Jai4WKC08]

33. You need to become a realist

Lots of people have lost Iowa and NH and still gone on to win the nomination.

Also, remember that unlike the general election, state primaries are not winner take all. Obama only received two more delegates than Hillary from the caucus last night. California alone awards several hundred delegates. So does NY, and that's Hillary's home state.

Fwiw, Hillary currently has over twice as many delegates as Obama, 169 to 66.

This race is a long way from over.

[Tom Rinaldo]

43. Bill Clinton for one.

Hillary can lose NH if she doesn't get blown out there. She has to win Nevada where she was always strong and Obama wasn't. If she doesn't I think it's over, but she can lose SC also if she's competitive there and wins Nevada. NH and SC have already shown strength for Obama, now with an Iowa bump Obama has to be the favorite in NH coming as it does so quickly on Iowa's heels. Hillary has to stay in the game and turn her campaign around before Super Tuesday. Nevada is the only state that she absolutely can't lose before then, because getting a victory under her belt before then will be critical.

Having said that it is an uphill climb for Hillary if she loses NH. She will have to show voters a strength in her that they failed to notice before in order to reverse direction if she loses the first two contests.

[Beacool]

35. I've seen many campaigns come and go and I'm not buying this "finished" mantra of the Obama fans.

I always thought that she would lose in IA and even maybe in NH and still not matter. Why? Because in these two states independents are allowed to caucus or cast their vote. Also, because there have been candidates who have won the nomination and the presidency without winning in the early states. A prime example: Bill Clinton. He lost in 5 early states before hitting his stride.

If she does poorly in the early states, I still won't declare her finished until after Feb. 5th at the very earliest.

[mckeown1128]

37. No even with a loss in NH and SC

she will be still be viable on Feb 5th. A win in Nevada will push that comeback kid II thing

[Catherine Vincent]

41. Should have known this would be from an Obama supporter.

Shouldn't you be concerned for Obama?

[suston96]

47. If Hillary "loses" New Hampshire?

The delegates in NH are split like Iowa - more or less. So there is no "loss" there.

Hillary is one delegate behind Obama in Iowa. And Edwards is one delegate behind Hillary.

Don't believe in polls or the media yelling you that it's all over for this candidate or that. At least not until Feb 5.

[aquart]

48. So Obama's inevitable? And that's a good thing, now?

Hypocrites.

[Politicub]

49. If Hillary loses NH, will you give us the definition of marenade?