E.J. Dionne, Jr.: Revolution-The meaning of Iowa

[babylonsister]

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=3b558f12-8fb2-428a-ae80-cacba0ecc13f

Revolution by E.J. Dionne, Jr.
The meaning of Iowa.
Post Date Friday, January 04, 2008



MANCHESTER, N.H.--Iowa voters in both parties staged a rebellion against the status quo and against the past.

Mike Huckabee's decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses marks a revolution in Republican politics. An outspent outsider triumphed over a former governor who played an inside game. Huckabee's victory is also the revenge of evangelical Christians who had been taken for granted by the GOP establishment and decided to vote for one of their own, a Baptist minister turned politician.

Change, particularly generational change, was also at the heart of Barack Obama's victory over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Voters under 30 supported him by better than 5 to 1 and he carried independents by more than 2 to 1, according to media entrance polls.

Clinton's difficulties in the campaign's next phase may be compounded by the fact that Edwards narrowly pushed her into third place. Edwards thus earned himself a second chance, if not a major boost. The polls suggested that Edwards' message of raw, passionate protest won him support among voters who decided late in the campaign.

Obama's theme of ending partisan divisions by reaching out to independents and Republicans may be an enduring legacy of Iowa. Indeed, at this initial milestone of the 2008 campaign, it's clear that the Democrats are the party in the business of winning converts, and turnout at the Democratic caucuses broke all records.

snip//

Tuesday's New Hampshire primary will have a much larger turnout, and independents--roughly 40 percent of the potential electorate--will play a far greater role than they did in Iowa. Independents are on the whole alienated from President Bush and his party and they seem likely to vote in large numbers in this state's Democratic primary, as they did in the Iowa caucuses. This would benefit Obama. In a recent Franklin Pierce University-WBZ poll that gave Clinton a narrow lead here, Obama was drawing 46 percent of his support from independents, while Clinton drew 33 percent of her backing from voters who did not declare a party affiliation. By coming into New Hampshire strong, Obama may keep independents on the Democratic side. This could hurt McCain, who leans far more heavily on independents than Romney does. But Romney's defeat in Iowa may obviate McCain's need for independents.

One caucus does not a realignment make. But Democrats, particularly Obama, are fighting for the middle ground and the independents, while Republicans are largely talking to each other. Thus will Democrats have far less adjusting to do when the general election battle is finally joined.

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=3b558f12-8fb2-428a-ae80-cacba0ecc13f

[Bullet1987]

1. A BIGGER turnouts in New Hampshire!!!!

[babylonsister]

2. More people there maybe? nt