If Obama wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, I don't see how he loses.

[PresidentObama]

And I honestly think he'll win both.

Winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina would be absolutely disappointing for the Clinton campaign, and send them into a panic. From here, they'd get desperate. And desperation means you're sloppy, visibly frustrated, and you'll throw any mud you can find. That's not her fault, that's how politics unfortunately works.

Nevada, which is before South Carolina, could be her one hope of slowing down the momentum and getting back in the mix. But I don't think Nevada is as big of a lock as she thinks, and I think a lot of Clinton people are worried about it too. Remember, New Hampshire was a place she once had double digit leads in. So her leads in Nevada have time to disappear.

And I think if Barack wins IA, NH, and SC...he'll go into Super Tuesday the frontrunner even if Hillary wins Nevada. I think as long as this is a three person race, it's going to be hard for Hillary Clinton or John Edwards to make a level playing field against Barack.

If he wins tomorrow, he's in the driver seat.

[jbonkowski]

1. Don't forget super delegates

Clinton has a lot of those.

jim

[SteppingRazor]

3. But superdelegates can change commitment on a whim.

Dean had a lot of them in the lead up to the primaries, but he had damn few after Iowa and NH.

[PresidentObama]

5. Bingo!!

[LostinVA]

2. Super Delegates

[featherman]

4. Nevada will be decided Wednesday when the Culinary

Workers Union decide who they will back. It's a caucus state and the CWU is the ball game. They are purposely waiting until after NH

[PresidentObama]

6. So assuming Obama wins NH, you think they'll endorse him?

[featherman]

8. It's up in the air

[Imagevision]

7. If Nevada turns in Favor of Obama, he's the next Prez to be sure...!

[abburdlen]

9. A win isn't enough

Both Clinton and Edwards are still in the game but if Obama wins with a landslide (and I'm talking 15 point win) tomorrow, the questions of when Clinton drops out move from Drudge's rag to the nightly news. And then unfortunately no matter how many super-delegates she has it won't matter.

[onehandle]

10. Bill Clinton.

He lost NH and several other states.

I'm pretty sure he did ok in 1992.

[Dawgs]

13. Right, but the dynamic is different this time.

Obama is seen as this years Clinton - fresh, young, hope.

Edwards and Hillary have been around for awhile. Can they do anything to change Obama's momentum? I agree with the OP. I think, at this point, he wins NH and SC easily. I'm not sure about Nevada.

[cyclezealot]

11. are you thinking of

Pennsylvania, New York, California, Ohio, Maryland, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersy. its politics. Its as changeable as the weather.

[cyclezealot]

12. Michigan and Florida

would probably be Hillary states. But, they don't count.

[featherman]

14. The whole "Big State -Super Tuesday" fall back strategy

might have some validity for the Clinton campaign if they were fighting off an underfunded insurgency campaign or a soon-to-be-broke campaign like Edwards. But they are not. Obama's campaign is as well or better funded, will increase the money edge with these wins, and was better organized on the ground in the big states like California even before Iowa

It's all about brand name politics at this point. Clinton's brand is sinking... Obama's is rising.

I wouldn't put much faith in Super Tuesday state polls that are taken before Iowa and New Hampshire. Not sure that that day will be a firewall for HRC anymore.

As a county organizer for the Democratic Party out here in CA, I have seen surprisingly little support or activity for HRC in my particular region... more for Edwards and a lot of movement toward Obama

But it's politics and things can change... guess we will play it out

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

15. Never underestimate the power of a gaffe.

[peaches2003]

16. If she uses the 'superdelegate strategy'

I hope Bill realizes his legacy will be gone and I hope Hillary realizes the wrath of the 'ordinary' Democrat will assure she loses the general election. I for one am sick of having the ordinary voting citizen being made a fool of. Why bother to have primaries and elections if the results are thrown out. If the primary results are stolen by the superdelegates it is no worse than the 2000 and 2004 stolen elections.

[cyclezealot]

17. I find it shameful to have to ask the question.

But, lets be honest about America. Those being polled lie to poll takers but are honest when in the voting booth. Its called the Doug Wilder affect. Some say it will be impossible to carry a state south of Maryland, all the way to California. I hope that not the case. ?