Interesting article from Salon re: Clinton and Delegates

[ccpup]

... While back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would provide Obama with a massive amount of momentum, they don't offer much in terms of delegates. Obama picked up 16 delegates in Iowa, just one more than Clinton did, and there are only 22 more up for grabs in the New Hampshire primary. Even if Obama won every won of those -- he won't -- Clinton would still enjoy a substantial delegate lead over him because she has the support of so many of the Democratic Party's superdelegates, elected officials and other party insiders who choose for themselves how to vote at the party's convention.

Yes, the superdelegate breakdown could tilt toward Obama if he comes out of New Hampshire looking like the candidate to beat. But no matter what happens in New Hampshire, Democratic voters in Michigan will deliver a Cadillac full of delegates for Clinton on Jan. 15. Neither Obama nor John Edwards nor Bill Richardson is on the ballot in Michigan -- all three withdrew after the state bucked the DNC and moved up its primary -- leaving virtually all of the state's 128 delegates to Clinton. So far, the DNC is saying publicly that it won't seat Michigan's delegates at the convention. Bowers says there's no way the DNC won't cave on that one. If he's right about that, Clinton will enjoy a fairly massive delegate advantage by the time Florida votes on Jan. 29, and she still enjoys a huge lead in the polls there.

Then there's Feb. 5, or Super-Duper Tuesday, where the slate of states in play currently favors Clinton. As Bowers notes, Clinton now has "oversized leads" in Arkansas, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York. She also holds a big lead in California. If those leads hold -- and if the DNC seats the delegates from Michigan and Florida -- Clinton comes out on top no matter what happens anywhere else. Bowers does the math: "Collectively, Clinton's advantage in Super Delegates, Michigan, and February 5th home states provides her with roughly a 500 delegate advantage on Obama. If she were to also win Florida and California, which combine for 555 pledged delegates, it would be impossible for Obama to be ahead on delegates after February 5th. He could win every other state between now and February 6th, and never make up that sort of delegate deficit."

...

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/01/07/clinton/index.html

[GodlessBiker]

1. I can just see the headlines if Obama gets more primary votes but Clinton gets more delegates.

[ccpup]

2. it would be an interesting situation certainly

but I can imagine something like this happening. I still don't think we'll know who the Nominee is until Spring.

[cali]

3. The thing is, I think it's possible that support for Clinton

was/is a mile wide and an inch deep. If she collapses in all the early primary states, SDs will start endorsing Obama one after another. Aren't most of them still uncommitted? And then the ones she has may well start to peel off. She may be in OK shape now in CA and other states outside NY and NJ, but I see that as something that could change quickly- and her delegate count from Michigan is likely to be a source of trouble for her- not to mention derision.

[HeraldSquare212]

5. Right, itseems as each state gets close to the primary/caucus date, her support erodes significantly

[BringBigDogBack]

13. cali hits the nail on the head. eom

[KittyWampus]

19. Why would anyone take it for granted Dean will allow MI and FL delegates?

[The Ghost]

4. Michigan

Werent they stripped of all their delegates as of this weekend, for not changing their date from January 15?

[ccpup]

6. the article seems to suggest

that the DNC will cave and give them back come Convention Time. Or I might have read it wrong.

In any case, it's an interesting, informative read.

[The Ghost]

8. Thats so wrong in every way

by saying they would give them to Clinton. Didnt everyone pull out of MI under the assumption the delegates are being pulled? They cant go back on that, thats unfair

[Cameron27]

7. I don't know what the status of that is,

FL's in the same boat right?

[BringBigDogBack]

16. That's correct.

I don't see the DNC backing down.

[TwilightZone]

9. Interesting. If the math is correct, this race isn't anywhere near as over as the CW suggests.

She is way ahead in the polls in Florida and California as of a couple weeks ago. It'll be interesting to see if her leads hold or if Obama's momentum closes the gap.

[ccpup]

10. the CW?

what's that an abbreviation for?

And you're right that mathematically the race is far from over. People forget, in the perfectly understandable "my candidate won, my candidate won!" rush of excitement, that it isn't about one or even two States (especially the first two).

It's really about Super Tuesday and the Big Ones (CA, NY, NJ, PA, etc).

If you win the first two and then stumble badly, it can hurt you on Super Tuesday. If you lose the first two -- or the first five as Bill Clinton did in 1992 --, but have a war chest and solid on-the-ground support and the endorsements of Unions, you can easily gain back momentum on Super Tuesday.

I think my intention in sharing the article was to remind people of the simple political reality that the race is far, far from over.

[TwilightZone]

11. Sorry, ran out of room in the headline - it's conventional wisdom

I meant to include it in the body, but forgot. I essentially meant that the prevailing opinion around here seems to be that it's over.

I agree that the race is far from over. I think that a lot of people may be celebrating/despairing a bit prematurely.

[ccpup]

14. yeah!

a new abbreviation to play with! thank you. And, yes, people are celebrating/despairing a bit prematurely. It's a bit like packing your bags, winding your way out of the stadium, finding you car in the parking lot and going home because the "other" team got a second-base hit in the First Inning.

[TwilightZone]

20. Nice analogy.

As I've said elsewhere, all of the declarations of victory and defeat are based on a one-delegate lead in a 2,000 delegate race. There is no question that Obama has momentum, but strange things happen in politics.

[featherman]

12. As posted elsewhere, the race is now about "brand name"

As Clinton's brand name fades and Obama's rises, the math changes

-The Super Delegates are not committed to HRC in any meaningful way

-That HRC benefits from remaining on the ballot for the rogue MI primary is strange politics. Not at all sure the DNC will cave and thus punish the candidates who withdrew their names from the rogue primary in good faith

-the Super Tuesday primaries are enormous but Clinton's lead in the polls of many of those states is very old news indeed. Let's see how the polling trends go over the next couple of weeks before getting too carried away with "Clinton leads in..."

[cmkramer]

15. Table Talk

There was someone on the White House forum there that said the superdelegates are not obligated to vote for the person they originally pledged to. In fact, according to her, many of John Kerry's superdelegates switched to Howard Dean when it looked like he was going to win the nomination and then switched back to Kerry after Dean got out. If that's true, I'm guessing there's going to be lot of bleeding of Hillary Clinton superdelegates to Senator Obama.

[KittyWampus]

17. I'd say there's NO WAY the DNC will seat those MI delegates. They screwed the pooch.

Rules are rules.

[K Gardner]

18. Some of her SDs in S. Carolina have already pulled their support, but aren't

saying which of the other two candidates they are backing. I posted a link to this article last night and will have to find it. So evidently, mind-changing can be done and is being done. Even so, this is a horrible system and needs to be stopped along with the electoral college, IMO.

[ChiciB1]

21. And We Call America... A Democracy?? Why Hold ANY Primaries Then?

If one doesn't want Clinton as POTUS, we're going to get her anyway? Absolutely DISGUSTING and so UN-DEMOCRATIC!!

I just got a call from a man asking me to renew my membership with the DNC! I would have done so just because of Howard Dean, but I'm not planning on being an "activist" after this campaign if Democrats are the same as Repukes and want to let themselves get rolled but Repukes and Big Money & Media. Besides, I have a feeling that they are going to do their VERY BEST to get rid of Howard Dean as soon as possible. And especially if Clinton is the nominee!!

I told the man that I didn't want him to call me anymore because it seemed that it's all about Clinton & Obama anyway. I said I didn't support Clinton and he ACTUALLY said, yes I agree with THAT, not Hillary. Still I told him that the party I used to know doesn't seem to be willing to do much for "we the people" anyway.

And yes, it seems I was rude, but I worked my butt off for many many years and now they want me to become someone who will just follow along with ANYTHING THEY DECIDED! That's not who I am! My motto has always been... If you don't STAND for something, you'll FALL for anything!