I Predict Obama Will Get 50% Of The Vote In New Hampshire

[THUNDER HANDS]

I do really believe he'll break 50%.

I see the breakdown like this...

Obama.......50%
Clinton.......28%
Edwards.....17%
Richardson...5%

If Independents make up 45% of the voters there, and let's say they break 75-25 for Obama - that's 33% right there.
If Democrats make up 55% of the voters there, and let's say they break 33-33-33 across the board - that's 18% right there.

That's 51%. Completely doable.

If Independents break for Obama, let's say 60-40, which is more realistic - that's still 27%. Added to the 18% you get from Democrats, that's still 45%.

Obama is going to win, and win big.

I'm predicting at least 45%, and probably closer to 50%.

[ananda]

1. Well, I do think that..

.. he will get quite a few votes from Reeps
and conservative Indies.

[Carrieyazel]

18. Why would conservative Indies vote for Obama, unless they want him in the general?

Let's think for a minute. He has impressive 95% ratings from most liberal ratings groups. A conservative Indie is close to the opposite of that.

[maddiejoan]

2. sounds about right

[rox63]

3. I think that's a bit high

Drop that Obama majority down by about 10% (with Obama getting 40%, and Clinton & Edwards splitting the other 10%), and I think that will be closer to reality.

[FrenchieCat]

13. I agree.......

[MadBadger]

4. Nah

[papau]

5. I expect 75% of the GOP/indies to go for O, with H/O/E among Dem at 55/25/20

that means of the 45% O gets 33+, add 25% of 55 is 13+ - so 47 is my guess.

Meanwhile while Hillary gets 2 to i over O amonst Dems that is only 30 - add 5% of 45 indies for 2 and my guess is 32

Edwards at 20% of 45 gets 9 from the indies, add 20% of the 55 dems gives him 9, so my guess is 20

I think Hillary is lock in to 32 with little upside - bur Edwards can take some points from O.

Interestly, E has rejected the obvious go after O path in order to join O in O's Hillary dump - I think Edwards doesn't break into double digits after this - and that is sad as he is the most liberal of the crowd.

[laureloak]

6. How many delagates would that give him?

[THUNDER HANDS]

7. i have no idea, actually

anyone know?

[laureloak]

9. 2025 needed to secure nomination

After Iowa with super delegates counted:

Clinton – 169

Obama – 66

Edwards – 47

[citizennyc]

10. Don't count superdelegates

I hear a lot of talk about how the Superdelegates might help Hillary get the nomination... but if Obama gets the majority of regular delegates (even a slim majority), it won't happen. Whether they personally support Hillary or not, as party officials they want one thing above all -- for the Democrats to retake the White House and to retain control of Congress. The one way to assuredly scuttle that chance is to reverse the democratically chosen winner of the primaries. Obama supporters will revolt and refuse to support Hillary in the general election, handing the election to the Republicans.

[Yukari Yakumo]

11. Neither are the superdelegates' support is set in stone.

They can still change their minds before the convention.

[laureloak]

17. Without superdelegates:

Obama 16
Clinton 15
Edwards 14

[sentelle]

20. Why does Clinton have more delegates

Am I wrong to suggest that without superdelegates Edwards should have greater or equal delegates: He did do better than her in Iowa (by less than a percentage point). Seeing that only Iowa (on the Democratic side) has voted, why would this be?

Or is this fuzzy math?

[laureloak]

21. Here's the breakdown:

For the Democrats: Obama 940 votes, 38%, 16 delegates; Edwards 744 votes, 30%, 14 delegates; Clinton 737 votes, 29%, 15 delegates; Richardson 53 votes, 2%, 0 delegates; Biden 23 votes, 1%, 0 delegates. (source: USA Today)

On Edit: Iowa results

[JackORoses]

8. how many supporters will a double-digit loss cost Hillary?

[laureloak]

24. 22 delegates up for grab in New Hampshire

[Carrieyazel]

12. No he won't. New Hampshire does have a majority of voters that don't believe the hype.

He'll win it, but he'll be far from 50%.

[Yukari Yakumo]

14. Don't think so. 40% seems more realistic. {nt}

uguu

[Renew Deal]

15. I don't think so.

But anything over 39.9% is a success.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. You are gonna be eating crow sandwich come Tuesday midnight

:-)

[Alexander]

19. But Independents can also vote Republican.

What's your prediction on the Republican side?

[BringBigDogBack]

22. Seems high

but I am hoping for an Obama win in NH!

[suston96]

23. 50%? OK. Let's do some math: 12 delegates available?

Obama gets 6 delegates. Hillary gets 3 delegates. Edwards gets 2 delegates. Richardson gets 1 delegate?

That's almost as huge as Iowa.

Add two states together and you have Obama with 22. Clinton with 18. And Edwards with 16.

How's my math?

[THUNDER HANDS]

26. math is sound

but it's about more than the hard delegate count. It's about momentum and money and attention.

[AtomicKitten]

25. That seems high.

Cool, but a bit excessive.