I think Obama will win Nevada.

[Drunken Irishman]

Even though I think a few on here think it's pretty much Hillary's to lose. I had the same feeling prior to Iowa, even though he was trailing there in most polls. When he won, I wasn't surprised in the least and actually wasn't surprised to see Hillary win New Hampshire -- I had a really bad feeling heading into primary night.

I hope I'm right, wouldn't be shocked if I weren't, but I do think Obama wins the Nevada caucus.

[fascisthunter]

1. Honestly... I Don't Want to See Hillary Win Now

no way

[lapfog_1]

2. It may well depend on the voter suppression that Hillary

er, uh, Hillary's SUPPORTERS, are engaging in.

If they are successful, some 10,000 to 30,000 union members will not likely be able to attend the caucus at 11:00am Saturday. And that may be all she needs to win is what is likely to be another close race.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I agree with that, but I have faith the court won't allow it.

[ursi]

7. a judge decides on Monday to let it go forward or throw it out

and most believe it will get thrown out because it is really a Democrat Party thing and the DNC approved it already!

[lapfog_1]

9. Unfortunately, by my reading of the lawsuit

and the applicable state laws, NRS 293.135, 293.137, NRS 293.0655, there really isn't a provision for "at large" precincts. So the lawsuit would seem to have merit. However, I am NOT a lawyer, nor do I play one on TV, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

But on the face of it, there is an issue of law to be determined, so I'm guessing that the judge will issue a stay and it likely won't be decided until long after the caucus. But, in the meantime, 30,000 to 40,000 Culinary workers won't be allowed to caucus for either Hillary or for Obama or Edwards or anyone else.

Well, that's not technically true. If they can take the day off or a major portion of it right at lunch time, I guess they can caucus. And probably loose their jobs.

God I hate republicans.

I suspect the next thing will be scrubbing the roles of Democratic voters (who, say, contributed to a candidate different from Hillary) using a firm like Choicepoint or Database Technologies. And there will be many posters here telling me that it's really OK, that she is just using the rules to her advantage and that if she didn't do "anything and everything" to win, she wouldn't deserve to be our next President. Or that it is a total coincidence that the voter roles were scrubbed of all non-Hillary supporters and she had nothing to do with it.

Holy mother of God.

(and I'm an atheist)

[Drunken Irishman]

12. I just don't see a judge ruling to suppress votes.

Especially since the Democratic Party has already dismissed the suit and ALL parties agreed to the terms.

[lapfog_1]

13. Ah, there is the rub

you see, the lawsuit says that "changes were made" after March. They don't say what changes were made, only that there were some... and that they didn't have a say in those changes. And they on to say that the "at-large" precinct violates Nevada state election laws. And give recitations and so on. And my reading of those laws (available online) is that, Yup, the very nature of the "at-large" violates the letter of the law (the workers do not reside inside the casino, nor is the casino a recognized precinct or jurisdiction for any other legal matters). So, on the face of it, it probably is a technical violation. And the judge (if not the first then the inevitable appeals judge) might well throw out the plan entirely or say "so sad, you folks really should have thought of a different method to allow these people to caucus OR you should have pushed through changes in the law to allow this".

And the HillaRoves win. Unless the rest of the state gets so pissed off at this tactic to actually NOT vote for her.

Well, we can hope.

[sandnsea]

14. The Secy of State has been involved

They have a part in some basic oversight of the caucuses. It is hard to believe they would let an illegal caucus move forward.

[lapfog_1]

15. Except...

who would think that a Democrat would file a lawsuit about it?

Especially after the Democrats crafted the plan.

Really, it's going to be hard to explain why these workers are allowed to caucus in places where they work, not live. The laws describing precincts are all about geography and who lives there... it's hard to switch from where you live to where you work. And then just for some and not everyone.

Local and state politicians do stupid things all the time.

Unless it's urban legend, there was one state that passed a law defining PI to be 3.141 (that's it, not 3.14159.......)

Well, Monday or Tuesday will tell. If the judge reads the briefs and calls for a hearing, it's a bad sign...

And watch out for Amicus Curiae briefs from Reid and other Democrats in the State.

Nothing will surprise me.

[sandnsea]

16. The parties set the caucus rules

The only part the state appears to be concerned about is the mathematical allocation of the delegates, the basic laws set in the code. This is what it says on the SoS site:

"The Secretary of State plays a limited role in the caucus process. A caucus is governed by rules established by a political party. The Secretary of State’s office will provide both parties with the official registration file for the allocation of delegates, assist both of the parties in ensuring that any applicable federal and state election laws are enforced, and insure that all eligible voters who qualify pursuant to the respective political party rules have the ability to participate."

[FrenchieCat]

4. That is really, really fucked!

Can't she win on her own? What is this? 2000? :shrug:

2000 is what got me activated into politics.

2008 Might just get me out of it permanently. :(

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. Don't do that Frenchie....

A lot of elements on this board would love to push the rest of us out, leaving the field clear for HRH Hillary, I ain't going nowhere.

[ursi]

8. don't give up ...

I withdrew from stuff for about a month after Kerry lost in 04 ...but we carry on ...we must

[fightindonkey]

17. Unbelievable The Amount Of Crap You'll Continue To Spew

[lapfog_1]

18. Unbelievable

is the reaction of many DUers who make excuses for this shit.

And spin it like they were on Fox noise.

I don't like this kind of tactic, not from anyone. If Obama does it, then you'll see me hear battling the Obamabots as well (should they excuse or explain or spin).

But anyway, you obviously haven't read the lawsuit. Everything that I've posted is either from the lawsuit or the two newspaper sources on this story.

So... I'm guessing you approve of voter suppression tactics? Or do you think this is all about some teachers with their noses out of joint because 30,000 hotel and casino workers might get to be heard in this primary and some 300 teachers will not?

Instead of saying that I'm "spewing crap"... cut and paste from my posts and tell me where I'm factually wrong and back it up with SOURCES. But you can't do that. Because I'm not wrong on the facts. And it stinks, and even the most ardent Hillary supporter knows it. That's why all you can do is drive bys and snark.

[ronnykmarshall]

22. Oh thanks for reminding me.

I need to make my plane reservations for Las Vegas.

Between moving and working I've been slipping on my voter suppression duties.

Now where did I put my controls to my robot pterodactyl? That what we use to pluck all the Obama and Edwards supporters up and throw them into volacanos. Each one of us has our own "pterry". Mine's named Chi-Chi.

Busy, busy, busy.

[NewHampster]

23. LOL

ronny, can you conjure up a snowstorm for caucus day? That would suppress participation by the lukewarm "supporters" of the God Obama.

[ronnykmarshall]

25. Snowstorm? Snowstorm?

Let me look that up.

I think I need three live chickens, goat milk, cilantro and a Vicki Carr record.


You make little cilantro booties for the chickens and they drink the milk. The Vicki Carr record is for me. I just love her!

[NewHampster]

31. How to Conjure a snowstorm

From the Concord (NH) Monitor http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060103/REPOSITORY/601030332/1013/NEWS03

Anything for a snow day
Many hope rituals will call up a storm
By MARTHA IRVINE
The Associated Press

When it comes to conjuring a snowstorm, 8-year-old Taylor Zelman has more than a few tricks aimed at getting the day off from school.

She wears her pajamas inside out and backward. She runs around the kitchen table five times and flushes ice cubes down the toilet. And as she goes to sleep on winter school nights, she faithfully repeats, "I want it to snow, I want it to snow, I want it to snow."

"My teacher told me to throw an ice cube at a tree, but I haven't tried it yet," says the third-grader from Leesburg, Va. "I'm sure there's tons more I could do."

Indeed, there are many snow rituals kids and adults alike use in hopes of getting a day off from school or work. Some sing songs and perform arm-flailing snow dances, while others place white objects or silverware underneath their pillows.

Chris Conti fondly recalls his elementary school days in Madison, Conn., when - wearing only underwear - he would run around the house several times and then lie down on the ground and count to 30, or "15 if there was already snow on the ground because it was cold," says Conti, who is now 24 and lives in Massachusetts.

Full story: http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060103/REPOSITORY/601030332/1013/NEWS03

[William769]

26. How many busses are comming from IL?

[ronnykmarshall]

27. Oh Chi-Chi will stop that shit!

[elizm]

30. Maybe it backfires on HIllary and they let them all off to vote anyway...

Could that happen? Now wouldn't that be something! :)

[UrbScotty]

6. I hope you're right...

[BringBigDogBack]

10. That would be great

[David Zephyr]

11. I think he will win there, too.

If the vote is not suppressed.

[Franks Wild Years]

19. Yes, but....

He will, yes.

But if he doesn't - and the vote is suppressed - I believe it's time to unleash a barrage of publicity bringing attention to this. Parallels between this and people who found themselves 'unable' to vote in 2000 & 2004's Generals need to be drawn. Clinton, the spiritual successor to Mr. Bush, cannot be allowed to get away with this with nary a hint of dissent.

[babylonsister]

20. Franks Wild Years, welcome to DU!

:hi:

[David Zephyr]

21. Welcome to the DU, Franks Wild Years.

:hi:

[annie1]

24. i'm dying for a poll. this is killing me.

[Flabbergasted]

28. I'm thinking exactly the same thing.

[THUNDER HANDS]

29. i have no idea

and I'm clueless on South Carolina too. I just don't know what to think anymore.

I think both states will be decided by events that have yet to transpire in the campaign.

[durrrty libby]

32. I hope you are so fucking wrong, but in the end she will get the nom

It is the only way to go