Don't Shoot The Messenger / New ARG Nat'l Poll- Hillary 47% Obama 27% Edwards 13%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[AX10]

1. I won't.

I believe that these numbers are fairly accurate.
Still, I know that we have an extremely tough fight on our hands.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. ARG's Numbers Are Usually Susect

Rasmussen has her lead at 4

CNN has it at 13

ARG has it at 20

[Proud2BAmurkin]

2. Wow. Obama has collapsed

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I'm Not Going To Hang My Hat On Either Republimussen Or ARG

I'll wait for the next round of polls...

[suston96]

4. Similar to CNN poll from two days ago. Could be a trend?

Better hype up that racism issue a few more notches, eh?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. CNN Had It At Thirteen

Ras has it at four

ARG has it at twenty..

We need confirmation...

[BeyondGeography]

5. That's about what they had him down by in Iowa two weeks before the caucus

Anyway, most polls are worthless right now, none more so than national polls.

[cindyw]

6. As usual these numbers are way off the rest

[suston96]

14. These polls are really the first since New Hampshire

Others have not dared publish any polls since NH.

At any rate, fair warning: polls do not predict election outcomes.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Thats actually a complete and utter lie. Rassmussen has their tracking poll going...

and it shows Obama within the MOE of Hillary.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. CNN Has It At Thirteen

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/11/rel1a.pdf

Throw out the high + 20 and the low + 4 and take the middle poll + 13 or average them and get + 12 or just wait for more polls for confirmation...

[Hello_Kitty]

9. Says they're only polling Democrats.

A lot of states have open primaries so independents will be a big factor.

[applegrove]

29. And Hillary gets the independants. I think that is the case.

[antiimperialist]

10. It's ok to shoot the messenger when the messenger is a liar n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Me Or ARG

I just cited the poll knowing what the reaction would be...

[antiimperialist]

18. Not, you, ARG N/T

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Or They Could Just Be Inept Pollsters

After all they showed Obama beating her good in New Hampshire...

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Both Clinton and Obama have gone up, and Edwards has stayed the same.

[Barack_America]

13. Among registered DEMOCRATS only.

Is that correct? Please be specific. Our president isn't elected only by democrats, after all. What do the national polls amongst all voters say?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Maybe This Helps

Among Democrats (82% of likely national Democratic primary voters), Clinton leads Obama 50% to 25%. Among independents, Obama leads Clinton 37% to 32%, with 17% for Edwards.

[AX10]

28. Also, Clinton can win over some Independents...

because she is only behind by a small margin.

[ruggerson]

19. What party are we?

Are we the Democratic party or are we the independent party?

We're choosing our nominee - independents are not choosing one for us.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Actually The Polls Polls Everybody Who Will Vote D Including Indys

~

[CyberPieHole]

16. Kick and recommend for Hillary Clinton 44th President of the U.S. of A...

I doubt the validity of polls...but it still is better than seeing Obama ahead.

:kick:

[durrrty libby]

27. Well said. Her impressive performance on MTP this am will help continue

her upward trend.

And that is a great pic:toast:

[CyberPieHole]

31. I didn't see that...I am far away from the U.S. at the moment...

and only get dribs and drabs of news on CNN headline news and the Spanish language CNN and (egads) Faux news (which I am forced to watch for want of any other window into the upcoming election).

It's a cool pic, huh? Cheers to you too.:toast:

[durrrty libby]

32. I hope you get to see it. She was strong and confident

I am sure the rest of the contenders watched in awe and envy

Her depth of knowledge and her ability to express herself was truly amazing


The public will agree she nailed it

[JohnnyLib2]

23. Bang!

Thought it might be merciful, all things considered.

:shrug:

[polichick]

24. Ya mean we haven't learned our lesson about polls??

It's more fun to watch it play out anyway.
<><><>

These bumper stickers, t-shirts & more at: http://www.cafepress.com/powerboutique GET OUT THE VOTE!

[burythehatchet]

30. what an entertaining thread. lemmings, come to mind.

[madrchsod]

36. if i can pay these guys enough money

i bet they`ll sell me a poll that dennis is ahead in the polls....then maybe people would learn a lesson..nah.

we are being played

[burythehatchet]

43. fool me 7 times, shame on.....uhhh....

who?

[durrrty libby]

25. Excellent. She will fight to the win

[rocktivity]

26. ..

GET THEE BEYOND ME, POLL! UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!



:rofl:
rocknation

[madrchsod]

33. this firm polls consumers

no where on this do they state who they who they poll and where. any poll this company releases is not valid. who knows-->it maybe "purchased"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. OK

The survey results available on this web-site are provided through the kindness of our subscribers.

Subscribers vary from survey to survey, but generally include individuals, news organizations, single media outlets, media groups, corporations, foundations, and lobbying firms. Subscribers receive survey results before the results are posted on the web-site and their summaries are more detailed than the postings.

ARG has complete control over the content of the surveys for the posted results. Subscribers do have the opportunity to add their own questions at the end of the surveys for additional fees.

ARG subscription surveys include monthly nationwide surveys on the economy, the quarterly New Hampshire Poll surveys, presidential primary surveys, and surveys in all 50 states and the District of Columbia during each presidential election.


For more information about becoming a subscriber, please call us at 603-624-4081, or complete the following form to be contacted by e-mail.

[HughMoran]

34. National polls are utterly meaningless

This thing is still wide open...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. February Fifth Is A Quasi Nat'l Primary

~

[Bullet1987]

37. I couldn't give two shits about polls right now...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I Will Put You Down As Disinterested

:crazy:

[HughMoran]

41. "quasi" being the operative word

Perhaps I should have said "mostly meaningless" - I still don't think national polls can really determine who will win the nomination. The "pundits" on "This Week" seemed to think it would likely go beyond Feb. 5th. I'd say the pundits have about as much credibility as the national polls, so it's still up in the air IMHO. :shrug:

[Lerkfish]

40. clinton supporters and the ARG are joined at the hip

and the ARG are consistent outliers.


what do we conclude from that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Do You Have A Link?

Usually when there's a conspiracy alleged on this board there's usually a conspiracy site to buttress the conspiracy theory...

Is there one in this instance?


There have been three polls released since the N. H primary and they have all been posted on this board....

[HughMoran]

44. Larger sample size:

Polling Data

RCP Average 01/04 - 01/10 - Clinton: 40.7 Obama: 35.0 Edwards: 14.7 Clinton +5.7


CNN 01/09 - 01/10 443 RV 49 36 12 Clinton +13.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/04 - 01/06 499 A 33 33 20 Tie
Rasmussen (Sun) 4 Day Tracking 750 LV 40 36 12 Clinton +4.0

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Lerkfish Was Suggesting Some Kind Of Conspiracy

That's what I was questioning...

[Lerkfish]

46. actually, sorry, I didn't mean to suggest a conspiracy

bad wording on my part -- what I meant was that ARG consistently is an outlier, dramatically favoring Clinton, and that's why its clinton supporters' favorite poll to quote.

not sure if that's more clear.