usregimechange
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:38 AM
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Prediction, SC and NV will split, Super Tues states will decide |
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Which means other states will get their chance to have significant sway in Presidential primaries like never before.
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Drunken Irishman
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:39 AM
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Joe the Revelator
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:39 AM
Response to Original message |
1. I don't see either of those as a split, as long as votes aren't supressed |
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If Hillary doesn't get away with voter supression in NV, then Obama takes both states and the momentum going into super tuesday.
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Big Blue Marble
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:40 AM
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2. Which state do you think Obama will lose? |
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I think if the teachers' union loses the court case, he will have a good shot at winning both.
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usregimechange
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:42 AM
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4. I think he can win both and hope so, but I think he may lose NV in a |
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:41 AM
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Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
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Renew Deal
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Tue Jan-15-08 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
15. Your post makes my head hurt. |
CoffeeCat
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:48 AM
Response to Original message |
5. In making predictions... |
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I really try to be pragmatic.
I was spot on about Iowa--because I was there and I could see exactly what was happening and why. I predicted it Obama, Edwards then Hillary.
I didn't predict NH correctly.
The polls show that Obama is overwhelmingly taking SC.
Regarding Nevada, most of the people who caucus, will not be a member of a union involved in either side of this lawsuit. However, the people of Nevada will surely see exactly what is going on and it will be a top story until this is finalized.
The lawsuit has the appearances of "sour grapes" on the part of the Clinton camp. Everyone understands very well that it is her supporters and surrogates behind this lawsuit, and it will not sit well with the average Nevada caucus goer.
Nevada is a lot like Iowa in that respect. In Iowa, Hillary pulled some underhanded stuff and she was rejected (in part) due to those things. She planted questions at Iowa events. One of her Field Leaders had to resign, because he sent out emails lying about Obama being a Muslim. I see Hillary making blunders with this lawsuit, that are similar to her blunders in Iowa.
I think NV and SC will go to Obama.
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JeanGrey
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:56 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
7. But, Hillary might cry. |
CoffeeCat
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Mon Jan-14-08 03:00 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
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I say she takes both states by 20 points.
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JeanGrey
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Tue Jan-15-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
13. She won't take the election, unfortunately for us. |
loveangelc
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Mon Jan-14-08 01:53 AM
Response to Original message |
6. Clinton has the edge in NV but Obama may get it, idk. |
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Edited on Mon Jan-14-08 01:54 AM by loveangelc
I do believe he gets SC.
I think its good for Obama that there are many states with open primaries on super tuesday.
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Jai4WKC08
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Mon Jan-14-08 02:07 AM
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8. Whether they split or not, Super Tuesday will decide. |
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The only likely effect of NV/SC will be IF they force Edwards to drop out (altho I suspect he'll hang on to the bitter end).
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CK_John
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Mon Jan-14-08 02:20 AM
Response to Original message |
9. Tomorrow will be interesting day, IMO the court will throw out at-large-precincts and |
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delay the caucus to give the state time to reorganize.
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Occam Bandage
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Mon Jan-14-08 02:21 AM
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10. I think Obama wins both, but Clinton effectively captures the nomination on Super Tuesday. |
jackson_dem
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Mon Jan-14-08 03:01 AM
Response to Original message |
12. No one will win a majority on Super Tuesday |
Renew Deal
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Tue Jan-15-08 12:09 AM
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14. I think it's going past 2/5 for a little while. |
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I don't think it will end there.
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Skip Intro
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Tue Jan-15-08 12:12 AM
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16. Clinton wins NV. SC is still a ways away, in political time. We'll see. Not calling that one yet. |
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