If Clinton continues to get 63% of the white vote, she will be tough to beat

[antiimperialist]

In a state such as SC, I wouldn't feel confident at all if I were Hillary Clinton, because roughly half of voters who participate in those elections are black, traditionally.

But correct me if I'm wrong, but in most states, the number of black voters is expected to be much lower than that of SC.
With this said, the CNN exit poll has 68% of blacks voting uncommitted with 30% for Hillary Clinton. However, 63% of whites picked Hillary. Let's not forget there will be more whites voting in the primaries than blacks. Hispanics will be a wild card, since their behaviour cannot be predicted as easily at this point, IMO.

We'll see.

[loveangelc]

1. um, obama won in a mostly white state and lost by 2 and a half in another mostly white state.

I doubt he's losing the white vote by that much, Rasmussen or wherever you're getting your polling info. because Rasmussen sucks.

[antiimperialist]

2. I got the info from the exit poll

and i said "if she continues" to get that much...because she might, and she might not.

[VotesForWomen]

12. i live in south dakota (folks from iowa), and i'll tell you that white people in this part of

the country are nothing like white people in the south and on the coasts (where i have also lived and visited). i doubt obama will do as well among whites in the rest of the country as he did in iowa; not that i'm saying a person should vote according to this; people should vote for whoever they think is best.

[BenDavid]

3. I liked what the latino man said about the Culinary workers

supporting obama...He said" just because our union supported obama does not mean he will get the entire count. Obama has only about 30% of the union vote" and that the other is for Hillary, especially from latino workers."

[AtomicKitten]

14. Guess you haven't heard the Culinary worker are po'd she's trying to disenfranchise their vote.

http://www.alternet.org/story/73782

[CoffeeCat]

4. Hillary came in third in Iowa...

...and Iowa is 97 percent white.

She certainly didn't get "67 percent of the white vote" in NH.

Are you basing all of this on Michigan...or something else?

[antiimperialist]

5. based on the fact that racial polarization has taken place

Iowa and New Hampshire are the past. Voting preference are very fluid. Not only will blacks flock towards Obama, but many Whites will support the white in the White vs. Black circus that we are seeing in the media.
Of course, the increase in whites towards Clinton will not be nearly as pronounced as the migration of blacks towards Obama's side, but will occur, IMO, and it did today in Michigan.

[CoffeeCat]

6. I disagree with you...

...that "whites will support the white in the White v. Black circus."

I don't think the Barack/Hillary fight is divided so starkly into Black and White camps.

I think the Barack supporters supported Barack through all of that; and conversely, the
Hillary supporters sided with her throughout the fights.

I don't think there was a lot of shifting--from Obama to Hillary--on the part of White people, due
to this issue.

I do think that Hillary's comment about Johnson's role in the civil rights movement
really ticked off some African Americans. I don't think her comment was racist, at all.
I certainly don't think that she's a racist. I think the Clintons have done more for
the African American community than most Democrats. However, Clinton tried to make
a political point about experienced politicians being just as important as the people
who inspire. She tried to make a political point by highlighting Johnson's role and
diminishing King's. This was bad judgment on her part.

I do think this may turn off more African Americans to her, in states that have larger
African American populations, but I do not think any of this is a factor in most of the
other states.

This will all be old news after SC.

[Dawgs]

19. Iowa and New Hampshire happened in the last two weeks. That's hardly "the past".

[VotesForWomen]

13. actually, i think caucuses are not going to be good for hill, because many men and not a

few women do not want to stand up in front of their buddies and say they're voting for hillary. the average man would much rather his friends see him voting for a black male than for hillary, and quite a few women do not want their family and friends thinking that they're a 'feminist' or anything. i predicted that this would happen before the iowa caucuses, and i think it did. on the other hand, when people vote in private in a voting booth, a lot more of them will vote for hillary, for a number of reasons. i think obama gets a reverse effect, where people want to show others that they're not racist, so when voting in a caucus they will be more likely to vote for obama than they would in private.

[avrdream]

15. Very good point about caucuses and one I hadn't thought about.

Strange, though, that more wouldn't have chosen John Edwards, using your logic. I still don't understand that one.

Cheers.

[CoffeeCat]

20. I think this is bunk speculation...

You are assuming so many thing--speculating--for which there is not a shred of evidence.

I caucused in Iowa. There were some men in the Hillary camp. There were also tons of
people in the Edwards, Clinton, Richardson and Biden camps. Both men and women.

I assure you, that no one sitting at that caucus looked at the Edwards or Biden people and
thought to themselves, "Gee, if they're not caucusing for Barack, they must be
racist." :eyes:

What you say really is absurd. The three candidates offer very different messages, and
the vast majority of people stand up and support their candidate based on the issues.

What you describe is a caucus goer who is mealy mouthed and so afraid of what everyone thinks,
that they will take time out of their schedule to attend the caucus--and then stand and support
a candidate with whom they don't agree---just to avoid the bad, imagined thoughts of others.

I think this is one of the most absurd, piles of bunk. It's not logical.

Most caucus goers are heavily engaged people who care deeply about politics, more than the average bird.
These people are not shrinking violets. They take the political process very seriously and show up
because they are deeply loyal to a candidate.

There's no evidence of this. The Iowa polls, prior to the caucus, reflected exactly the outcome.

I really wish people would stop this nonsense.

[NJObamaWoman]

7. White vote vs. Black Vote sickens me. Dem. Party Should Be Ashamed

I'm new here and this will be my first primary on Feb 5 in NJ. Most of my family members are democrats. I'm a young black woman who has always supported democrats. The past few weeks has sicken me. All of this race talk has personally offended me. Who cares about the white, black, or latino vote? Aren't we all AMERICANS? What about the American vote? All of this has shown me that I am having second thoughts about being a democrat. Not that I would be a Republican but this is just turning me away from this party. People boasting about the white vote are sounding just like the Republicans. If both parties keep bringing up race I think this party will drive away many supporters. Hilary may win the nomination but at what cost? This race war has proven to me that MLK died for nothing. The civil rights movement really has done nothing to create harmony between all races because race is still an issue in 2008. I was a supporter of any democratic runner who wanted to get things done in America for everyone. Who brought all the races together. Thats one of the reasons why I became a Barack Obama supporter. But I would have been happy with Hilary as well. I just wanted someone who could get things done and I thought Obama & Hilary are the two who would make this happen. All of this fighting has turned me off and I've become so jaded now about politics. This isn't about the American people. The election process has become about dirty tricks, race, and the media. So while some Hilary supporters are cheering about the "White" & "Latino" vote and diminishing the "black" vote be careful because in time Hilary may need us again to become president. Our black vote might help to bury her presidential dreams.

[antiimperialist]

9. So you would help elect a Republican warmonger out of desire for revenge?

Harsh words.
And regarding your wish that race weren't a factor, I wish the same. However, when analyzing reality and making predictions, voting behavior based on race has to be analyzed, because want it or not, race counts. Sad as it may sound.

[NJObamaWoman]

11. Please don't dare to put words in my mouth.

I've seen other DU Hilary supporters say this same thing to people who aren't enchanted with Hilary. No I wouldn't vote for a republican I would vote for Bloomberg who I think will run if Hilary is nomination. In fact with the black vote that so many Hilary supporters seem to not care about I think they might vote for him and kick HRC behind in the election. This would be a genius move by Bloomberg. I don't know what I would do if he does not run because I'm so angry about all of this. Revenge is petty but as a black woman I'm hurt and disgusted and feel that if Hilary is behind the reason we have all this racial tension than she must not win the election.


The sad thing is that before all of this stuff happened I would have been happy to have had a decent election that was fair and about the issues. Your right race does count and it shouldn't. Just like I feel that people shouldn't vote for hilary because she is a woman. As a woman that sickens me and makes me less likely to vote for her. It is only drawing me to BO side even more. I feel sorry for him because he is being racially targeted. This is starting to reinforce the notion that maybe racism against blacks is still live and well. There is NO WAY we will ever have a black person run for president successfully because he or she will always be a target of racism.

[AtomicKitten]

16. I think you are dead-on accurate about Bloomberg.

It is beyond sad that a clean and fair election is only a dream.

Please know many DU'ers agree with you, about all of it, and that we too are concerned about the insidious nature of what is going on and aren't particularly happy about the Clinton campaign using litigation to disenfranchise her opponents' voters by trying to suppress the vote. Here's the story: http://www.alternet.org/story/73782

Welcome to DU. Don't let the tough crowd here put you off. ;)

[ellisonz]

17. It's the damn media.

[jackson_dem]

8. She won't get 63% of the white vote in a contested state

The reason she did so well is no one else, aside from Kucinich, campaigned in Michigan and there was little incentive for supporters of Edwards and Obama to vote.

[Occam Bandage]

10. I note a few Hillary supporters are still gleefully playing the race card.

[Perry Logan]

18. Got links? I've noticed that anti-Hillary types have a tendency to make unsubstantiated accusations.

[NoBorders]

21. Who was the black candidate she was running against in MI?

I don't think your logic holds. It may well turn out that more whites support Clinton than Obama, but MI does not provide the evidence for that.