how many internet supporters does dean really have?

[bearfartinthewoods]

yesterday i re-learned a lesson to not jump to conclusions so today i'm asking questions first.

how the numbers of dean supporters is established?

i've read references here of "millions of us". the dean site lists
550,494. they number their contributors as 130,293.

can someone tell me how these numbers are established? leaving the "millions" hyperbole aside, what is the determinant for a "dean supporter"?

is it like DU's software which shows almost 37,00 registered users? we all know that included in that number, are thousands of freepers and even more people who registered at one time but found they weren't happy here and never returned. is it the same way with the dean numbers?

i know there are dozens of people, just on DU, who at one time, supported the dr but no longer do. are there numbers still apart of the totals?

what about people who have signed up to get emails for info, like me, and then later asked to be removed from the mailing list (over and over, but that's a different matter). did the simple act of being interested in learning more count me as one of the total?

what are the criteria for inclusion in the number of supporters?

finally, in the number of 'contributors', does that count each contribution as coming from a separate person? i know there are many DUers who give monthly. how is that figure determined.

dean has made a statement concerning what will happen with his people if he is not the nominee. i think it's fair to ask how many people are we talking about and how is that number established?

[stickdog]

1. 93.

We're just REALLY loud.

[polpilot]

26. 59,234,404 and counting.

Dean '04...

[OrAnarch]

2. I would think...

The first number is the number of registered people period. When they were having a drive to sign up X amount of people, it was all based on online registration. So Id assume anyone who has signed up among the half million people counts in that figure.


Now I would assume contributors is exactly right on also but that is a guess. The reason I think this is due to contribution rules, etc. Im sure they would have the statistics all on hand, so itd be ridiculous for them to count contributions, rather than contributors. I give them the benifit of the doubt. Besides, that number is very low for total contributions.


Also, do not forget the lurkers, those who support who have not signed up at his site, etc. Of course, youll never know how many new people he has brought into the process who are not turned on by any candidate, but as long as such a number is statistically significant, then it should be of a concern. His internet support is not fully inclusive of all his support, and that is something to remember too. You are trying to equate his support in general, and those who are non-transferable, to only those on his site it seems with your last sentence, which is a bit foolish.


The number of supporters of his who wont vote for anyone else is not an established number or a finite statistic. Its merely an idea that he brought up; one I agree with: disenfranchised people who he has touched are not likely to be touched by others, and hence, very likely to not vote for other candidates. No amount of his convincing, endorsing, etc, is goign to make those people transferable. Such is true with any grassroots movement, no matter how negative you want to spin such.

[moz4prez]

4. isn't it a given that any candidate's supporters are essentially free

agents?

what purpose could it possibly serve to VOLUNTEER the fact?

[OrAnarch]

9. purpose of free publicity...

Shows all the little whiny dems attack him when he makes a generally true statement, leading to more media exposure in everyone's eyes as being correct. Beltway dems don't realize people see through, or dont understand, their lies and distortion, so they keep drumming up issues that Howard basically owns on. This has been quite the winning strategy. Also does play up the outsider theme.

If other dems want to win on this issue, don't give Dean his time of day in the controversial media spotlight. Basically say, "of course all voters are free agents".

He volunteers that which is controversially left unsaid (but true), and when the chaos ensues, he gets his next 15 minutes in the news and a resounding seal of approval from the layman.

[bearfartinthewoods]

10. i'm focusing on the internet supporters as a subset

because that's the only info that i have access to/

[OrAnarch]

11. IMHO, your probably not going to be able to derive anything...

from that. I am not sure if the majority of his supporters who have been touched and never voted before are the internet active or not. Also, those that do sign up may very well be more well-rounded and politically informed/active, and hence, be more about ABB. So this thread is pretty well useless in making generalizations.

[mouse7]

3. There are no Dean supporters - It's all just Matrix Special FX

You're still sitting in the theater watching "The Matrix Revolutions"

Aren't the Special Effects great!!!

[bearfartinthewoods]

12. recently, i've "met" several dean supporters who were capable and

willing to actually answer questions in a thoughtful and intelligent manner. i'll hold onto that thought.

[indigo32]

18. Why is it BFITW that WE'RE always the ones who have to

answer questions? Defend our guy. If you're SO sure we're on a losing track... convince me that we have someone else who can win. I understand you think you're being cute by not revealing your candidate. But I for one simply am not convinced ANY of the others have what it takes really. So convince me or I'm not walking away... because frankly very little of what has been thrown at Dean has slowed down his machine.... and he'd be a good Pres. PS I'm a very serious BFEE supporter. I'm not gonna be lame and scream back about whom you may support just because you support them.

[HFishbine]

19. Yeah, Mr. Fart

I have to agree with this. You make no posts in support of your candidate and ask other people to do research to support your incesant Dean bashing. Why should we?

[bearfartinthewoods]

29. why is it that so many dean supporters choke at answering questions?

why is it so hard to put your support for your candidate into action by responding to questions with something other than non-responsive responses.

i am not trying to be 'cute' by not announcing my choice. i am avoiding the dean team strategy of attacking the questioners candidate instead of answering the questions.

this of course, forces them to focus on me instead which is ok because i have a hard shell.

it seems the dean team has a whole list of strategies designed to allow them to respond to a post without being responsive. it makes me wonder ...why?

as hard as i try to come up with a positive answer, i keep coming back to either they don't answer because they don't know because they don't know much about the campaign or the candidate, other than "he's winning" or they can't be bothered which doesn't seem to work since they post anyway.

as time goes on, it seems that some of the dean team are more afraid of questions than they should be and that makes me wonder.....

[mouse7]

31. Why is it YOU choke at answering questions?

Why can't you answer some important questions?

What do you SUPPORT?

What is your agenda?

[bearfartinthewoods]

34. oooh...20 questions! i like that game...but you've come up short.....

again.
hmmm...odd questions coming from you...miss or mr "uncommited"
:evilgrin:

[madfloridian]

37. Don't pick on Bearfarts....he is a good Dean fundraiser.

He helped us raise the bat the last two days.

Thanks, Bear.

[HFishbine]

42. Maybe

It's because you have expectations of others that you are unwilling to fulfil yourself.

[bearfartinthewoods]

32. i thought "defending your guy" was what it was all about.

what you walk away from is your choice...we both know this isn't about the committed.

i have been consistent as to who i support from day one. if the fact that i won't tell you a name upsets you so much, i suggest you either delve into the old DU or ignore me and my pesky questions like so many of the dean team do....pesky questions...pesky pesky questions.

[indigo32]

35. Defending my guy to you?

maybe you're right...maybe I should just ignore you. You've already made up your mind, that's been clear and you affirm that here.
See my problem is that I worry ALL attacks from within the party dampen the enthusiasm that will be needed to win. Thats my my hypothesis here. I should point out that no I don't think all of your "Pesky Questions" are attacks and as I said yesterday I think you are being ernest in your concerns... but as a whole they come accross as an attack. Thats why I do respond to you sometimes... and just that once encouraged you to come out and support your candidate instead. Don't worry I'm not gonna follow you around repeating the question as I've seen some do. As for your original question in this thread... I haven't a clue.

[bearfartinthewoods]

38. i understand your concern but i guess i have more faith than you

in Duers. i figure we are 99.99% ABB no matter what.

my concern is that all that faith is not in vain. that we field the best candidate possible.

someone asked about my agenda. it's no secret and it hasn't changed since i got here.

Al Gore should be in the whitehouse. one of the reasons he isn't is because his candidacy was a gimmee. there was no real primary competition, no warm up fight. there was no fire for him to walk through to harden and temper either him or his candidacy. so it was left to the general for the earth tones and the make up and all the lies that were told about him which should have been told and refuted during the primaries so that they were truly such "old news" by the time the general rolled around that even the media would have been ashamed to re-tell them.

he should have been attacked and defended and attacked again until his people got into the habit of defending him. that's what should have happened and didn't and that's why he isn't in the whitehouse.

my agenda is to do whatever i can to make sure that never happens again....period.

[indigo32]

39. You have faith in DUers

good. But you also say
"if he is the one, i will vote and do what i can but i'm going to half to avoid any face to face outreach."
Thats the problem I'm talking about... and frankly I don't expect you to be anything less than honest with yourself...it's just that pushing those same views over and over again on this board is more than that.

Good point about Al Gore though... I think running against 8 other opponents will vet out the best, whomever that may turn out to be.

[bearfartinthewoods]

43. i have to say it nice to see someone who understands i am not really the

enemy...just a damn stubborn sparing partner. :grin:

[liberalnurse]

5. I would also like to add this.....

There are many Dean supporters who do not have computers and internet. They go to Meet-Ups and/or gain information from grassroot workers like myself. Many are agoing to the House Party tonight and others have just given dontations each quarter.

There are many, like the "Freeman" or "Desert People" from Dune.

These folks have been motivated by their dislike of *bush and have concluded Dean is the anti-bush. They may not continue to participate without local leadership from the grassroots action as I will be much more complacent if Dean does not get the nod.

I will vote..... and probably not work to evict *bush with any other candidate.

[bearfartinthewoods]

36. well then..i seems you are a perfect example of dean's devoted

supporters. i totally understand your position as i am facing a similar crisis if he is the nominee. you see i don't lie well. it shows on my face as though i was wearing a neon sign saying "i don't believe a word i'm saying".

if he is the one, i will vote and do what i can but i'm going to half to avoid any face to face outreach.

[madfloridian]

44. Did we thank you for helping the fund raising the other day, Bearfarts?

We meant to do so.

[bearfartinthewoods]

49. you are welcome!!!

the one thing that is really impressing me about the dean candidacy is the cash machine. whoever the nominee is, i hope they benefit from the same support!

i always do well at the fire company's carnival. no body raises more money in the dunk tank than me!

[CMT]

6. probably just a dozen or so

but there are more than any other campaign has--and no matter how many active internet supporters they have is pretty impressive since they have been able to raise enormous sums of money with an average donation of less than $100. Grass roots politics in action.

[Gore1FL]

7. Not sure --

You can get the info right from the horses mouth if you ask here:
http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=resources_contact or call this number : 1-802-651-3200

I ssupect they are adding (presumabvly unique) users from the barrage of Dean sites, but I am only speculating as an undecided voter.

(To answer your South Question in your signature, NV, MO, OH, WV, FL, and NH are all up for grabs.

[bearfartinthewoods]

13. that's the third reference i've seen to OH..any details? thanx

i ask, because i'm afraid PA may slip and am counting on OH to counter the loss.

[eileen from OH]

17. I think it's based mainly on a couple of things

. .. Gore only lost very narrowly in Ohio and that was after pulling out all ads and campaigning there in the weeks before the election. (Dumb, dumb,dumb). With all the talk of Florida, it was Ohio where he REALLY blew it.

Secondly, we are a rust belt state and it was really NAFTA that hurt the Dems here. We can diffuse that argument with clear positions on renegotiating it in ways that can help our industry. As part of that, Bush's dropping of the steel tariffs will really, really hurt him here as will the high unemployment and the flood of our jobs going unchecked to other countries. (Actually, that will also help in PA as well.)

eileen from OH

[bearfartinthewoods]

41. i thought of the steel tariff as a positive too but was concerned

since steel isn't the only industry in Pittsburgh. a lot of the old steel workers are now working in the secondary industries which may benefit from the dropping the tariffs because their supply costs go down and they become more competitive world wide. it really depends on who out numbers who in those two industries so i think it's sort of a wash?

i used to have a buddy who lived out there but he moved to SC so i haven't any connections out west any more.

i agree about NAFTA. i need to do some checking on the farm policies as that's heavy in the midstate and maybe our best hope in picking off stragglers.

thank you for the info.

[HFishbine]

21. Dean only candidate to hold Bush under 50% in PA

Dean 43%, Bush 49%. Dean also leads in PA among dem contenders:

Dean 28%
Lieberman 17%
Gephardt 10%
Clark 9%
Kerry 7%
Edwards 4%
Sharpton 3%
Moseley-Braun 3%
Kucinich 1%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x9463.xml

[Padraig18]

8. The 1.5 million figure

It is my understanding that that number (1.5+ million) represents the total number of people who have signed up for his e-mail list. The 538+K is the number of people who have actually volunteered to help the campaign, whether it is hosting a meetup, writing letters, leafletting, etc., and the final number is the number of unique financial contributors the campaign has.

The tempest in a teapot regarding Dr. Dean's statement is alternately amusing or irritating, depending on my mood at the time; all he has done is to speak 2 simple truths: he himself is a loyal Democrat who will support the nominee of our party, regardless of who that is, and will further urge his supporters to follow his example; his supporters, not being automatons, may or may not do as he urges. Any 'threat' contained in that statement is far more a product of the listener's internal insecurities than it is about any malign intent on Dr. Dean's part, IMO.



:hi:

[bearfartinthewoods]

15. i'm not going to continue in the vein of the statement other than to ask

why it was necessary for him to say it. even i could have artfully ducked the question, if in fact there was a question asked.

but he answered it in a particular manner, intentionally. i've heard one explanation that's plausible but am alases open to here more.

people running for prez don't usually say stuff like that without a purpose...

[stickdog]

27. He said it to counterbalance the claim that he's unelectable.

Dean's point is that he has energized a block of new voters who are just as much at risk of alienation as the centrist voters most other candidates argue that Dean will alienate.

[Polemonium]

14. 280,000+ contribuotors this year

http://www.deanforamerica.com/

160,000+ on meet-up which means those are the people signed up on line to get information to go to the monthy get togethers of supporters. In areas where Dean supporters are well established people do not need to sign up on meet-up to get together with other Dean supporters. I'm not real clear how much higher this number might be, but from supporters I've talked to, we are not all on line. There is an estimate of over a million other people getting involved in the campaign, but I'm not sure where that is coming from, although that does not imply that it is not true. Certainly polls indicate that millions would vote for him if given the chance tomorrow.

Anyhow, with around 40 million dollars raised in the first year with more small contributions than any candidate in recent memory and between 100,000 and 200,000 active campaign volunteers, what-ever the actual census of supporters there is no doubt that this the biggest grassroots effort before the primaries in over 30 years.

[Cheswick2.0]

16. If you sign up on the web site to host a meeting or write mail

you are counted as a supporter. I think that seems reasonable.
But the larger truth is that no matter how those numbers are calculated, he has more supporters than whoever the original poster is supporting.

[elfin]

20. Well I know they counted me at least twice

Because I gave money using one address and inquired about a meetup at another and now get identical mail to both. However, I am now a Clark supporter and donor.

[stickdog]

28. So how many times did you sign up for Clark? (nt)

[Hep]

22. 1

I am a Dean supporter. I don't need to count how many there are. I am an army of one.

[HFishbine]

24. Have you

started receiving your combat pay yet?

[bearfartinthewoods]

47. i like the way you think

[LuminousX]

23. Unsure

And I think it is hard to get real numbers. When I went to see Dean at Navy Pier, I had previously signed up on the website and verified my info to be let into the event. At the same time, a visiting friend and fellow Dean supporter was 'registered' at the event. These lists are most likely what the campaign uses to get solid supporter numbers, but even vetted as it was, they are inaccurate. At that event was at least one die hard Kucinich supporter who was attending mainly out of boredom. She had to get signed-up just like my Dean supporting friend did.

[Bombtrack]

25. not to mention their contributors aren't all exclusive to them

probably at least a couple hundred thousand donated to other candidates. And probably that many if not more are Bush supporters

the fact that he has gone insane enough to claim "a million and half" I think illustrates nicely how truely twisted this man is

[in_cog_ni_to]

30. Let me just add this.

I use to be a supporter of Dean and tried 5 times to remove my name from his email list..to no avail. It never worked...on purpose, I assume. I did, however, just yesterday, add my name to a list of EX Dean supporters to get all of our names removed from the Dean Meetup list. I could never get removed from the Dean email list so ended up just blocking them. If everyone who is an EX Dean supporter had the same problem I did getting removed from his list, his numbers are artificially inflated.

[slinkerwink]

33. All I know is that we have twice the contributors for the fundraisers

than Clark does. That there in itself ought to tell you that Dean has plenty of internet supporters. The 550,000 supporters are indicative of how much support Dean has. I believe that a large majority has gone offline to work for Dean or to canvass neighborhoods for Dean, thus leaving a smaller majority online. Those left online are more attuned to each political report out of the Dean campaign than the rest that are campaigning for Dean unofficially.

Get it?

[TeacherCreature]

40. He has billions and billions of them

ask a silly question, get a silly answer.

:hi:

[dave29]

45. It's just me actually

sorry for the confusion. I'm the only Dean supporter - I've just signed up with thousnds of different names.

:hi:

[LWolf]

46. I'm one.

I signed up for news about the campaign before Dennis became a candidate. I'm still getting email from Joe Trippi.

[retyred]

48. I'm not sure but it 's probably along the same lines as

Three elderly men are at the doctor's office for a memory test.

The doctor asks the first man, "What is three times three?"

"274," is his reply.

The doctor rolls his eyes and looks up at the ceiling, and says to the second man, "It's your turn. What is three times three?"

"Tuesday," replies the second man.

The doctor shakes his head sadly, then asks the third man, "Okay, your turn. What's three times three?"

"Nine," says the third man.

"That's great!" says the doctor. "How did you get that?"

"Simple," he says, "just subtract 274 from Tuesday."

**************************************


retyred in fla
“good night Paul, wherever you are”
So I read this book

[TexasSissy]

52. LOL LOL!

[TexasSissy]

50. I'm counted, even tho I'm a Clark supporter.

Oh veh. If I could take back the day early on that I attended a Dean meeting. I've been hounded by Dean e-mails ever since (I had to put a kill file on the name Dean so I'd stop the e-mails).

After I attended the meeting, I decided I didn't want to support Dean at that time. I subsequently decided permanently not to support him. But they count me as one of their supporters because I signed the sign-in sheet at one of their meetings.

And that's how it goes.

[Justice]

51. Some Skewing Of Numbers - At Least By One

I have always received emails from the Dean campaign, even though I never signed up for anything, anywhere. They must have purchased my email from someone else.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

53. I signed up for their email list as [e-mail]

and I'm sure they are counting me. lol