Daily ARG tracking poll results for Tuesday, December 30, NH

[CMT]

Here are todays results of the ARG tracking poll of NH. These are results from December 27-29--not much change. The results from December 26-28 are in ()

Dean 37% (37%)
Kerry 18% (19%)
Clark 12% (12%)
Lieberman 6% (6%)
Gephardt 5% (4%)
Edwards 3% (3%)
Undecided 18% (18%)

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

So it looks like Kerry lost a point, and Gep gained one. Everyone else was steady.

[clarknyc]

1. Oh! Oh!

Kerry lost a point! Oh my God! We're doomed! Doomed, I tell you...

(/sarcasm)

[in_cog_ni_to]

2. I like this Gallop poll

from December 1991

December, 1991:

Mario Cuomo - 33%
Jerry Brown - 15
Douglas Wilder - 9
Bob Kerrey - 8
Tom Harkin - 7
Bill Clinton - 6
Paul Tsongas - 4
Undecided/Others - 18

I wonder what President Cuomo thinks of that poll? Look at where Clinton is...6%...right where Lieberman is and Clark is doing twice as good. I like this poll...it says a lot about polls. You never know what will happen. Just ask President Clinton. :)

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. Apples and oragnes

The primary is a lot more front-loaded this time. The winner will be decided a lot sooner this time.

And the front runner in that race didn't even run.

[goobergunch]

5. And the New Hampshire Primary was in mid-February (n/t)

[CMT]

4. you are corrrect

and this tracking poll is just a snap-shot in time as are the polls which show Dean losing to Bush--just like Gore was 15-20 points behind in the polls until dem convention, AND at one point Clinton was running 20-points behind Bush I and third against Bush and Perot.

[Adjoran]

6. First of all, don't take one day of a tracking poll

They do them over 3-4 days for a reason; it's the overall picture that really counts. Tiny differences (less than margin of error) between days are totally meaningless.

The only one directly affected by these figures is Kerry. He has to close the gap in NH, or he's toast. The weird thing about politics is that a year ago we would have said he had to win NH, but Dean has forged such a big lead there now that the expectations are lower for Kerry - and all you have to do is beat the expectations to get positive coverage and momentum from it: remember Clinton only finished second in NH, but that was enough to claim victory.

If Dean also wins Iowa and SC, he will probably be unstoppable. But if Gephardt wins Iowa and Clark takes SC, and they all split up the other Feb 3 states, the race will enter a whole new phase.