Intrade: 60% chance of McCain winning FL, 40% chance of Romney winning FL

[skipos]

I guess people think the Crist endorsement will put McCain over the edge. Personally, I put their odds at 50/50.
We will see how good intrade is at "predicting" this one.

They also have McCain at 60% for the nom and 30% for Romney.
I think McCain, like Hillary, is favored in about every state that hasn't seen much of the candidates. Name recognition still goes a long way, and that's why I am 100% sure Hillary will easily win Florida (intrade has it at 95%). It also makes Giuliani's loss all the more pathetic. That guy was leading everywhere just a few short weeks ago. Dumbest. Strategy. Ever.

[flvegan]

1. I'd say it's better than that for McCain who's touring with our Gov. Crist

Crist has a lot of support here in Florida.

[cobalt1999]

2. me too.

I think McCain will end up easily winning.

[skipos]

3. I think Romney will squeak out a win

but it is only a hunch. Other than Iowa, I feel like Romney usually outperforms the polls, and right now the polls are pretty split between them. Also, Romney probably knows he must win FL to be competitive on super tuesday. I imagine he is going all out with his $$$.

[lurky]

4. His $$$ doesn't seem to be working that well.

I was in SC for a couple days in early January, and there were Romney signs everywhere along the highway, vastly outnumbering any other candidate. Despite that presence, he still came in 4th.

[skipos]

5. Yes, it isn't working as well as it should

but he is an awful candidate. He went hard on MI and NV and won big. He is an idiot if he didn't go even harder on FL. That said, I really won't be surprised if Romney loses.

On a side note, no one has a worse sign to success ratio as Ron Paul.

[my3boyz]

6. If McCain wins...

the Dems are in so much trouble! I don't think Hillary can win against him because he gets Independents (most hate Hillary). I guess some (if they were really against the war) might vote with Hillary but I doubt it. Hillary has more foreign policy experience but the fact that so many people hate her would take away from that advantage. I'm not sure if Obama could win against McCain. I think they would be fighting over the same base (of independents). Then McCain would bring up over and over again how much foreign policy experience he has. I guess if Dems had a REALLY HUGE turnout and everyone united behind the candidate he might win. I think John Edwards would have a pretty good shot if everyone supported him and we had a huge turnout. ESPECIALLY if the public was more concerned about the economy instead of the war. People think more of the economy when they think of him. Could they see him as commander-in-chief? I DO believe that Edwards would be able to get some independent votes. HOWEVER, I just feel uncomfortable about our chances against McCain PERIOD. If we had another attack or something before the election McCain would be shoe-in. I want McCain out NOW! I would rather the Dem candidate run against of the REpublicans instead of McCain. Running against McCain would be dangerous! One would think you could show all those pictures of him hugging Bush and the independents would be ill! However, when people get scared (if there was an attack) and they would flock to McCain.

[skipos]

7. I agree, Hillary is independent repellent

while Obama and Edwards aren't. It is one of the reasons I think Bloomberg will run if we nominate Hillary, and especially if it is Hillary vs. Romney (since he is independent repellent too).

Unfortunately, you have to go to the general election with the Democratic candidate you have, not the Democratic candidate you want.