Can she do it?

[cali]

After Hillary gets the nomination- which is unlikely to happen for another month or so, she has the exceedingly difficult almost sisyphean task of bringing together an increasingly fractured party.

I don't think she has the ability to do it. Forget fault for a minute and look at perception. A lot of people IN OUR PARTY see her as a polarizing figure. That perception has been cemented over the past few months, and it's not going to be easy to undo it.

But, but, but you say, if she wins she has the majority of democrats behind her. No. She doesn't. More democrats are choosing not to vote for her rather than the other way around. She's very unlikely to get a majority of dem voters in most states.

It's a dreary prospect- going into the November election with a divided party and very, very little chance of getting independents, and virtually no chance of getting disaffected repubs. It's a sad thing when John McCain beats our candidate on likability. But beyond that, McCain actually has more of a chance of uniting the repubs than Hillary has of uniting the dems. The power of Hillary to motivate voters- republican voters that is- cannot be overstated. Right talk radio will tear into her with a vigor greater than that they'd unleash on any other candidate, and John McCain will rip into her claim of 35 years of experience. And money will not be a problem for him. She's a fantastic fundraiser for him. The MSM hates her and will further damage her. I guess we have to hope that the Clinton machine plays all their dirty tricks- and then some.

She can win in November, but it'll take a lot of work and a lot of luck even in this most favorable year.

[Onlooker]

1. Obama will bring the party back together

If she wins, Obama will certainly be given a prime time speech, and he will, with his passionate and inspired oratory, largely heal the divisions. After all, we all know at some level that we have got to get the Republicans out of the WH.

[cali]

3. That will help, but not with indies and certainly not with disaffected

repukes. And it won't help with young people and it may not even be enough with African Americans. And she's divisive in a way that even exceeds McCain within his own party.

[MH1]

38. I think he will try

but I am afraid that unfortunately, some of his followers will then see him as a sellout.

The divisiveness sowed by Hillary is that bad, imho.

[wyldwolf]

2. people say this every four years

But this year, the party REALY REALLY is fractured for real! :eyes:

[cali]

4. And sometimes it's true.

This year is one of those times.

[wyldwolf]

41. only in the minds of the small percentage who are perpetually outraged

[robbedvoter]

5. Dean: "I have 50,000 supporters that are non-transferable"

I remember similar worries in 2004. Except they were not expressed by the likes of Peggy Noonan, just by democrats.

[cali]

7. put something in quotes and provide a link.

This could be like 2004... or not.

[robbedvoter]

14. It was 2004. Or maybe end of 2003 - when he had Obama-like status with the MSM.

And threads on DU (and MSM) were saying just the same

[wyldwolf]

42. You don't recall that, cali?

You can always tell when someone is going through their first election.

[denem]

28. It was united in 1980 and 1984

Turned out very well indeed. :sarcasm:

[pampango]

40. I believe that in 1984 the "insurgent" Gary Hart challenged the "establishment" Mondale.

Mondale prevailed for the nomination, but we all know how the GE went that year.

[wyldwolf]

44. 1980, yeah, right. (sarcasm)

[Skidmore]

31. Roll your eyes. But I think people who believe as you do are

in for a rude awakening come November. You can't keep taking the votes of groups in the traditional party coalition for granted election cycle after election cycle while ignoring them during terms or play them off against each other in the primaries and expect it not to have an effect eventually. Cali is on the money on this one. This is one of those years.

How's that polarization workin' for you? Let's just have some more of that divided government. Serve us up some diet neocon tripe.

Ain't gonna happen. Time to quit holding our noses and open the window. The sharp cold winter air and sunshine needs to rush in and cleanse the place.

[wyldwolf]

46. yeah, people say THAT every four years, too!

[Yossariant]

6. A lot of Dems see Obama as a polarizing figure

Hence, that Florida result.

She is the only Dem with even a chance.

And NO Democratic candidate can win without the support of Bill Clinton.

[cali]

9. er no. She won in a state where dem voters were overwhelmingly old

and female, and where she had campaigned in 1992, 1996 and appeared numerous times as First Lady. She won in a state where Obama didn't campaign. She won in a state where over 10% of dem voters are ex-New Yorkers. And she won barely 50%.

And yes, a dem candidate can certainly win without ACTIVE support from Bill Clinton.

She's the dem with the smallest chance. NO indies, no disaffected repubs, young people who don't like her at all. African Americans who are turned off. Yeah, she's electable- barely.

[Yossariant]

17. She won all age groups

[robbedvoter]

30. Come on. Mock 860,000+ Florida voters. Please. I am having deja vu 2000

with Joan Rivers mocking the Palm Beach voters. Oh, and Nader's Sarandon too.
Greay campain slogan: "Voters are worth shit"

[Tellurian]

11. And Ted Kennedy backpedaling after the Obama endorsement , saying he'll support Hillary..

if she wins the Nom.. My instinct is Ted is having second thoughts he rushed head-long into endorsing Obama.

[JI7]

18. uhm, that is not backpedaling, of course Dems will support whoever the nomninee ends up

[cali]

20. LOL! He didn't backpedal. Try learning the meaning of words.

And your purported mind reading skills are a joke. Kennedy couldn't possibly have made clearer how strongly he supports Obama. And it's hardly a secret that many of the most liberal Senators don't think much of Madame Triangulation.

[thoughtcrime1984]

22. I don't agree one bit

Hillary isn't the be-all, end-all that so many paint her to be. Bill has lost some credibility with his actions in the press. I know you won't agree, but I feel this will all play out exactly as it should.

[hogwyld]

8. The problems I see

are that the Obama supports keep saying that they wouldn't vote for Hillary, and the Hillary supporters saying that they won't vote for Obama. What we all need to do is remember what is really at stake for this country and it's future generations. Hopefully, that thought will sober up a lot of people here.

[EV_Ares]

10. The democratic party would be making a mistake if Hillary was to get the nomination and

I find the prospect of a Clinton-led Democratic ticket problematic in that should Hillary get the nomination, nothing would unite & galvanize the republican party more than Hillary Clinton. Right now it is totally demoralized and in disarray but would come out of that funk quick. I would certainly vote for Clinton if she wins the nomination but it certainly would not be an enthusiastic vote. I do not think she has the ability to win a general election as they are elections of perceptions of character and she is disliked by over half of the country along with as you say the MSM so there is another battle she would have to fight. On the other hand if John McCain gets the nomination of his party, he is more likely to unite the republican party and he has more appeal than Hillary to the majority of people, Democrats, Republicans and Independents. I can see her losing the general election quite easily. Obama would be the candidate of true change from politics as usual and the better candidate to win the general election as he does not have the character flaws and negativity that Clinton does.

[Nimrod2005]

12. She can't and she will fail for sure if she is running against McCain

[robbedvoter]

23. The guy Ron Paul beat in Nevada? The guy Hillary had more votes than in Fla?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4284425&mesg_id=4284425

[Uben]

13. If Obama can unite the party

...he will be the nominee. If not, it looks like Clinton will. You can't lose the primary race and say that you are the one who will unite the party. That defies all logic.

Obama has a hill to climb, but it is not unsurmountable. He will have to have a good showing Feb, 5th to do it.

I get so damned tired of hearing all the whining by those who say they won't vote for X if Y doesn't get the nomination. (I know you are not one of those Cali)

I am a Clinton supporter. If Obama wins the nomination, I am an Obama supporter. If Edwards wins, I am an Edwards supporter.

I personally believe Clinton will win the nomination and the GE. I just hope we seat more dems in congress this time around so whomever wins the GE will be able to exact the change this country needs.

[robbedvoter]

15. Same here.

[H2O Man]

16. The reason that

Senator Kennedy decided to publicly endorse Barack Obama is because he determined that Billary Clinton will not be able to win the general election if she is the nominee. There are two parts to that belief: the first is her negatives, which her campaign advisers have always recognized; the second part is the growing divisions among the groups within the party, something that Red does not think the Clinton campaign fully appreciates.

Even suggesting this on a political discussion forum such as DU tends to result in hostile reactions. People are driven by emotion, and focus on Ted's challenging Jimmy Carter in the 1980 democratic primary, something that becomes more interesting should one follow the logical comparison.

We also have people saying, "It'a always this way; the divisions will repair themselves after the convention." Actually, the bitterness and divisions have cost our party in the past. There isn't anything that we can do to change the past, but we can change the approach we take -- as individuals and as members of the groups that make up the democratic party -- in 2008.

[robbedvoter]

21. Ted also determined that NCLB would be good for my kids. So excuse me if

I don't consider his judgment infailible.

[H2O Man]

24. I've never suggested

that you are obligated to consider his judgement infailable. I encourage people to think for themselves. There are many democrats who think for themselves and consider Ted Kennedy to be a significant figure, worth listening to. I do not think he is the first person to have concerns about if Senator Clinton can win the general election, if she is the democratic nominee. That is a topic that is worthy of our consideration, and that we could probably discuss without references to "that NCLB."

[robbedvoter]

27. It's just that his name comes as an answer to too many unrelated questions

Almost like Rudy's 9.11.
I ask "why is MSM pushing Obama? "Ted Kennedy"
Will Hillary unite the party is nominated?
Ted Kennedy.
Does Obama have experience?
Ted Kennedy

I am not discounting the significance great endorsement here - it's just that you guys shouldn't think it'll cover any future problems. For all intents and purposes he is now an Obama surrogate - and his opinions have exactly the weight of a candidate's campaign.

[H2O Man]

32. My point was simple:

Ted Kennedy, after evaluating two specifics issues, concluded that Hillary Clinton cannot win the general election if she is the nominee. That has nothing to do with issues of Rudy and 9/11 or Obama's experience. It is only about Clinton's high negatives, and the growing divides in democratic party. It appears to be a topic that some people are uncomfortable with, and thus bring other unrelated issues up to avoid discussing. I consider you an intelligent, sincere democrat, yet your posts in this exchange provide a good example of how many people will avoid the topic I brought up.

[Me.]

34. Her Negatives Are One Reason Which Could Propel Bloomberg Into The Race

It was said months ago that if hers remained high it would be a big factor. Another was if Guiliani won on the Con side.

[Perry Logan]

19. With self-confidence like this, how can we lose?

Actually, we could put up a pointed stick and still beat the Republicans in 2008.

[bowens43]

25. THe party isn't the problem.

Democrats will , for the most part, vote for the nominee. The problem is that she is that there is no doubt that the independents, who will ultimately decide who is going to be president, will vote overwhelmingly for McCain. I know Democrats who will have a tough time deciding between McCain and Hillary. Hillary will lose and she may cost us the Senate in the process.

[EV_Ares]

26. Correct & when you think about it, Bill Clinton might not have won if it hadn't

been for the Third party candidates, she can only win the way Bill Clinton did -- if the GOP stays divided & splinters and a third-party candidate such as Ron Paul, Bloomberg, etc runs & takes votes away from the Republican nominee. That is how Clinton won in 1992 and 1996, with less than 50% of the vote. Clinton got only 43% of the vote in 1992 with Ross Perot getting (19%), and received 49% in 1992 when Perot ran again and still got 9%. The GOP nominees those years, George H.W. Bush in 1992 received 41%, and Bob Dole in 1996 received 41%.

Hillary's unification ability will be with the Republicans more than the Democrats and Independents.

[dmosh42]

29. Not being a Hillary fan, but she WILL roll over McCain big time!

She starts off ith a huge majority of female voters on a mission to elect the first female president, whether it is black, white, Hispanic or whatever. She will need to keep the campaign about domestic programs and McCain's dogged support of Bush's program of sending our troops to his war of choice. McCain can hardly use Hillary's lobbying money as a factor, when he is high on the 'take' list. And maybe the biggest factor is, like the Bush group in 2000, her team is the real machine group with all the dirty tricks to match McCain.

[JohnnyLib2]

33. I think she can and will.

In the larger sense, it's a huge "problem" to solve and will require unequalled persistence. Problem-solving ability and persistence are what she's been demonstrating all along, for x amount of years. As you, I believe, noted earlier, her high name recognition, political work, and travels throughout the country can help with the "luck" factor.

[JohnnyLib2]

35. LOL, wife just pointed out that mythical Sisyphus was male!

I'll leave it like that.

[cali]

36. you didn't know that? How sadly uneducated of you.

And gender has zippo to do with it. duh. Educate yourself about that very common phrase. You have a search function.

[JohnnyLib2]

39. Easy on the sarcasm, of course we did. Feminist humor lives.

Phrases aside, I figure that gender is a factor in this election cycle--maybe less so after this one. ??

[Enrique]

37. democrats will rally on our own

we're motivated.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

43. I think the Bushes will make sure she will win

they wouldn't want John McCain!

[goldcanyonaz]

45. Yes, she can! Fired up and ready to get out the vote for Clinton.

:woohoo: