MSNBC: Los Angeles reporter says there are internal polls showing Obama and Clinton tied in CA now

[TeamJordan23]

There was a Los Angeles reporter (Colin Nolan I believe) on MSNBC right now who said that he talked with many political consultants last night at the Los Angeles debate who told him their internal polls are showing Obama and Clinton tied in California.

[Unsane]

1. Obama CA rally on CNN.com live NOW

[katty]

2. tied? that is major because Clinton has been leading-lots of

support, etal

[bluestateguy]

3. Regrettably Hillary has already bagged a lot of early votes

Obama just needs to win a lot of delegates in CA.

[Barack_America]

4. As a caveat, I believe they were reported as internal polls...

...on the Republican side.

But it was also noted that Clinton is spending a lot of time in California, which obviously says that her own interals are telling her that CA is far from locked up.

[jackson_dem]

6. I wouldn't be quick to conclude that

We have a proportional system and the bigger she can win the better. Even if she believes she will win the state she recognizes there is a big difference between winning with 55% and 65%. 10% of California's delegates gives you a number about the size of South Carolina's delegation.

[Barack_America]

10. The math is more complicated than that...

Because it goes according to district, not the state as a whole. And unless the district has an odd number of delegates, Hillary and Obama will likely be walking away with the same number of delegates. In even numbered districts, either candidate would have to get 60% or greater to walk away with an extra delegate.

This article helps to explain it:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/delegate_allocation_the_califo_1.php

California is going to be a clusterfuck. The popular vote isn't going to tell us much at all. It's fight district, by district.

[jackson_dem]

12. Thanks

[skooooo]

5. Gobama!

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. National elections break in the final weekend

It happens all the time in presidential elections. There is a definite Obama surge going on. If he performs well at the debates tonight, I expect the polls to break his way across the 22-state primary.

[suston96]

7. Internal polls? Ah - no links then...How convenient.

[Barack_America]

11. I think the OP clearly stated that this was heard on MSNBC...

So yeah, no link.

FWIW, I too heard it.

[KennedyGuy]

9. Yeah..I heard a caller on C-span say that hillary was ahead by 30

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. Pure Clinton camp expectations game

She'll take CA by 12%, easily.