WAPO / ABC national poll, Clinton 47 Obama 43 Jan 30- Feb 1

[jezebel]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/03/ST2008020300009.html?hpid=topnews
Obama, Clinton Are Even In Poll
McCain Now Clearly GOP's Front-Runner After Primary Wins



Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are running roughly even nationally as the battle for the Democratic nomination heads into Tuesday's big round of primaries and caucuses, while Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) has jumped to a dominating lead over his remaining rivals in the Republican race, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.


Two days before voters in 24 states go to their polling places, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they back Clinton and 43 percent said they support Obama, with neither candidate decisively benefiting from the departure of former senator John Edwards (N.C.) from the race.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Obama is SURGING.

And unlike the one in Iraq, THIS SURGE WILL WORK!

[Herman Munster]

2. This is pre-debate

[jezebel]

4. Nope, it's Wed, Thurs. and Friday. Same day's as the Gallup which showed a supposed post debate

surge for Hillary.

[Azathoth]

5. Wrong...Jan 30 - Feb 1, exactly the same as Gallup's latest

So much for Hillary's "huge bounce".

[Drunken Irishman]

6. It's Jan. 30th to Feb 1st.

So the debate was squished in the middle of their polling.

[bluestateguy]

3. I hope that time doesn't run out for Obama

So many dumb dumbs out there just assume that Hillary will be the nominee and should be the nominee because she's the name they know. She has lived off of name recognition for months. They have to be given a reason NOT to vote for her, otherwise they will dutifully follow their marching orders to vote for her like the party establishment tells them to. Obama is gaining, but I worry that time will run out on him.

[Herman Munster]

7. hillary has much stronger support

On the Democratic side, Clinton's supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama's, with three in five of hers saying they strongly support her candidacy, compared with roughly half of his who said they back him strongly.

In addition to the experience-versus-change dynamic, gender and racial differences continue to define the Democratic contest. Women support Clinton over Obama by a 15-point margin (53 to 38 percent), while men back Obama by a 10-point margin (50 to 40 percent).

Among white Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Clinton is favored 52 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads among black voters 62 percent to 30 percent. White men are evenly divided between Clinton and Obama, though white women back Clinton by more than 20 percentage points.

As he did in early-state voting, Obama continues to hold an advantage among independents nationally. He also does better among liberals, particularly among those who said they are "very liberal," than among moderates or conservatives. Clinton still leads among those with family incomes of under $50,000 and those without college degrees. Obama has a better than 2 to 1 advantage among those with post-graduate degrees.

Democrats continue to give Clinton higher marks on key issues. She holds big leads over Obama on health care and the economy and a narrower edge on Iraq. The two run about evenly on immigration.

But it is the economy that has become a defining issue of the campaign on both sides. Twice as many people now called it tops as said so about Iraq, and no other issue reached double digits. About four in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents called the economy and jobs the election's single most important concern.

The poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 30 to Feb. 1, among a random national sample of 1,249 adults. The sample of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points; the margin of error is five points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.

[loveangelc]

they said Hillary's support was more enthusiastic in Iowa polls too...

[goldcanyonaz]

15. After Iowa came N.H.

[loveangelc]

19. Oh really, thanks for the info.

[loveangelc]

13. they said Hillary's support was more enthusiastic in Iowa polls too...

[KittyWampus]

8. he has to just keep the race close (60-40 split) on delegates Tues- after that he's got time

to campaign

[Egnever]

17. Dont worry

Time is on his side. He will take roughly half of the delegates on super tues. It will be the later states that decide.

[jab105]

9. The "surge" for HIllary was "snubgate"...it was everywhere...

at the debate, it HELPED Obama because of the very civil tone by both candidates (which made watching the debate an enjoyable experience)...

I think after-debate polls will help Obama, because it caused people to quickly get over "snubgate"...

[milkyway]

10. This is a bit of reassurance for Obama. Gallup had Clinton +7 and Rasmussen had +8.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104107/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[loveangelc]

11. :-)!!!!!! BTW I believe Washington Post has a better track record for polls than either Rasmussen or

Gallup...

[RL3AO]

12. 1249 people for a national poll?

No wonder these polls suck so much. New rule should say 5000 people for a national poll to be taken seriously.

Or better yet, make it 10000 people. California has 11.95% of the population, so the local ABC affiliates will poll 1195 people. Indiana has 2.07% so the local ABC affiliates will poll 207 people and so on.

[goldcanyonaz]

14. 1250 is a very good sampling. Much better than the usual 300-800 of other polls.

I even saw one with 286 people polled. That was ridiculous!

[jefferson_dem]

16. Statistical. Dead. Heat.

:woohoo:

Remember when Hillary was winning by 30 points in the ABC/WaPo poll in December? That was then...

[TexasObserver]

18. national polls are problematic

Except to the extent they reveal trends, and in this case, it's part of a trend towards Obama.

That said, here's my problem with national polls: The primary process, like the electoral college vote, is based upon each state and territory, so there are 50 plus contests, each one with some form of delegate split. National polls lump the whole thing in one basket based under a one person one vote approach. They are fundamentally flawed because they do not look at each state individually, and therefore overrepresent states with large populations.