calteacherguy
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:02 AM
Original message |
Breaking: Field Poll shows HUGE change in California race! |
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Clinton 36 Obama 34 Undecided 18
Just reported on KTVU T.V. Oakland....
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Bicoastal
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:03 AM
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1. Whah? Is that ALL of California or just Oakland? |
calteacherguy
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
4. Likely voters in Californnia...S.F. Bay area is Obama 41%, Clinton 31%! |
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Edited on Sun Feb-03-08 01:05 AM by calteacherguy
just reported!
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senseandsensibility
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
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Edited on Sun Feb-03-08 01:13 AM by senseandsensibility
Those numbers for Obama are incredible.
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BeyondGeography
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:06 AM
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Cha
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:13 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
18. That's 'cause they're |
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smart cookies there and they know what's up..and it's not bizasusual.
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Hoof Hearted
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Sun Feb-03-08 04:56 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
43. LINK to this POLL? PLEASE???? |
Hoof Hearted
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Sun Feb-03-08 04:57 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
44. So far it's FICTIONAL, or at least it lacks evidence. No link to the poll. |
Cha
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:03 AM
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2. Wow, California! Way to get down |
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to business..guess Ben Affleck knew of what he spoke. :)
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Azathoth
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:04 AM
Response to Original message |
3. That, my friends, is a *race* |
senseandsensibility
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:05 AM
Response to Original message |
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Obama could clinch it if he'd appear here for the next couple of days straight, like Hillary has been doing. And he needs to come to the Bay Area!
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Drunken Irishman
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:06 AM
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calteacherguy
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
9. I agree, he really should I think. |
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Of course I'm no political strategist, but I think with that many undecided an appearance here could put him over the top.
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sandnsea
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:21 AM
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27. Oprah, Michelle & Caroline |
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I think he thinks he's already gotten all he can out of CA and that the women are the ones who need to be reached now. He's got to shore up the northeast, I don't know why those people are being so goddamn resistent.
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Drunken Irishman
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:05 AM
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Alexander
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:07 AM
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11. This is exciting! Here's hoping Obama takes California! |
bluestateguy
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:07 AM
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12. How many people have already voted early |
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I worry that Hillary has already bagged a lot of early votes in California, and that this may be too late.
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Azathoth
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
13. Pollsters usually take that into account n/t |
AP
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:07 AM
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14. Also shows McCain closing on both of them in head to head. |
Pirate Smile
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:09 AM
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15. That may explain why she has been planted there for days. |
NJSecularist
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:10 AM
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16. It doesn't really matter who wins the race if it is this close |
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Both candidates will go away with the same amount of delegates
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Hoof Hearted
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:12 AM
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17. I looked for a link on the site and couldn't find one, do you have a link? |
marlakay
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:13 AM
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19. heh I talked my mom in CA to switch from |
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clinton to obama...caroline sent her over the line...
and my daughter says if its obama and not hillary against mccain she will vote for obama. she is in CA too...she is an independent.
my mom voted for kennedy in the 60's...I asked where she votes and she said they vote right at her senior apts (citrus heights), they make it real easy on the old folks...
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Kermit77
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:13 AM
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20. Wow that close and 18% undecided! |
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An undecided usually break for the more insurgent candidate - hence Obama.
Obama might win California! That would be a huge story on Wednesday morning.
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WillyT
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:17 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
23. Yep... And They'll Be The Last Polls To Close, I Think... |
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gonna be a long night.
Think I'll take Wednesday off, LOL!
:hide:
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ForRusty
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:14 AM
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21. lol! Yay for democracy! ^_^ |
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I prefer Hillary but will be happy with either candidate. Still, I think Clinton will win California. That's my prediction at least. :) On the other side I live in Kansas and expect Obama to carry this state.
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HughMoran
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:16 AM
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22. Wasn't it 43-40 in another poll? |
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I don't see a HUGE change? (other than this poller has a huge undecided number)
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Muttocracy
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
24. big change from a week ago, but not from the one you mention: |
jefferson_dem
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
28. Hillary -3, Obama +7 since the Field poll two weeks ago. |
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Edited on Sun Feb-03-08 01:24 AM by jefferson_dem
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loveangelc
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:19 AM
Response to Original message |
25. Wooooooooooooooooooow. (/flava flav) |
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Does anyoen really believe most undecideds will go for Hillary? I dont.
Damn those early voters lol.
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caligirl
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
32. No i don't. I think they are more toward Obama. |
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Edited on Sun Feb-03-08 01:34 AM by caligirl
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CoffeeCat
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
35. I think most HIllary fans... |
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...are all ready firmly planted in her camp. Hillary has been the "frontrunner" for many, many months. Either you're in her camp, or you're looking for something else.
That's why he surges so late in these polls. Hillary can hold onto those supporters who have been with her for the long haul. However, once the Obama campaign rolls in to town, he starts winning new people and people who are undecided.
It happened in my state of Iowa. I watched the entire process, and it truly is amazing.
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caligirl
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #35 |
37. That opinion article was actually very good on this question, can't find it |
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yet. I think now its at DKos. But the writer said at this point the movement is to Obama by undecideds. And those changing their minds or unsure tend to go to Obama. Their are more in that group who are less than willing to support Hillary. Those with Obama stay with him. Not so with Hillary. If I find the article I put it in its own thread. thread.
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jefferson_dem
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:20 AM
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mrreowwr_kittty
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:23 AM
Response to Original message |
29. Still think he'll lose b/c early votes broke so much in Clinton's favor |
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But this is still excellent news. He'll pick up a lot of delegates!
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caligirl
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:40 AM
Response to Reply #29 |
38. Someone said the polls take the early votes into account in their |
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Edited on Sun Feb-03-08 01:41 AM by caligirl
numbers. So its already accounted for in this poll. Guess they can determine a % of early votes went for each candidates in the polling process.
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loveangelc
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Sun Feb-03-08 04:22 AM
Response to Reply #29 |
41. That's what I was thinking...but then record "early voting" didnt seem to help Guiliani too much... |
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everyone was saying there was a lot of early voting in FL that would help Giuliani but it didnt...it matched the polls pretty much.
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ErnestoG
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:24 AM
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30. Breathin' down Warbird's neck!!! |
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I love it!!!
If Obama takes California, sheeesh...how many electoral votes is that....
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CoffeeCat
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:25 AM
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31. Please read the NYTimes Magazine article... |
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...on the delegate breakdowns by state.
I'm still reading this article, so I'm still learning. HOwever, it sounds like California will be dead even--unless someone breaks out and really has a surge in the polls.
It sounds like, to win the majority of delegates in a district, the candidate must win by a pretty big majority. I forget the exact threshold, but it was high. So, the delegates will be split even in almost every district that has an even number of delegates.
The article mentions that both camps are now focusing on CA districts in which there are uneven numbers of delegates--just to give them that edge in districts where the delegate count is uneven. That extra one delegate will be awarded to the candidate who has the majority.
Amazing. Truly amazing.
We are heading into a Super Tuesday, in which CA will most likely be even, or damn well near it.
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NJSecularist
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #31 |
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Even if Hillary has a decisive win, say she wins by 15 points, she'll likely only get 40 more delegates than Obama does.
Such is the weirdness of the delegate allotment system in California.
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CoffeeCat
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #34 |
36. Thanks for your input... |
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I skimmed the article for a few minutes while I was watching a movie.
I appreciate your input.
It is a "weird" system, as you said. However, it's such an enormous state. I like that it would take an immensely decisive win to run away with California.
If someone is going to walk away with that big prize--they should really earn it.
:)
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Thrill
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:26 AM
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33. No surprise. Thats why Hillary has been there so much. |
Colobo
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Sun Feb-03-08 01:43 AM
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GoldieAZ49
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Sun Feb-03-08 02:02 AM
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40. Baraaaaaaaaaack the vote! |
BringBigDogBack
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Sun Feb-03-08 04:35 AM
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tavalon
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Sun Feb-03-08 11:03 AM
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45. I've heard this tune before, and |
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I'm not biting a second time. I knew HRC was anointed from the beginning and I still know it (hate it, but know it. Forgot it temporarily after Iowa) and this is just the MSM making it into a fair dinkum horse race, that's all. In the end, Obama's fortunes will fall and HRC will be installed as planned from the beginning. This primary season is tiresome. I liked it better before I stopped believing in our side.
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