Zogby has Obama up by 5% in MO, Survey USA has him down by 11%, which is right?

[usregimechange]

Answer:

None of the above.

+or- 3% my ass.

[Summerza]

1. And Ramussen has Hillar by 6%, while Cook has Obama by 6%. Go figure lol

Then to complicate matters more, CNN has Obama up 3%, while Washington Post/ABC has Hillary up 4%.

[Alexander]

2. Actually Zogby is usually pretty good with polling.

They predicted Gore would finish 1% above Bush in 2000, when every other polling firm said Bush would win the popular vote.

[Justice Is Comin]

8. And he bombed like

a beginner on the Kerry election. He was all over the television telling everybody Kerry was the winner. hmmppptht

[Alexander]

15. Zogby was probably right on the 2004 election.

Given the massive disenfranchisement in Ohio and the electronic voting machine problems nationwide, it is naive and irresponsible to suggest that Bush definitely won fairly.

Most exit polls showed Kerry getting 53% to Bush's 46%, and winning Ohio and Florida.

How else do you explain this?

[Justice Is Comin]

18. I don't disagree with you at all that the

tabulators were rigged. But Zogby had it with a wide enough spread that Kerry should still have won. His polls were off and after the results, he said he blew it.

[NastyRiffraff]

3. All the polls vary wildly

Bottom line is, nobody knows what the hell is happening with the voters.

GO VOTERS!

[ellisonz]

4. Zogby.

[sfam]

5. The problem is they cannot agree on who is likely to vote...

They really don't have a clue, but all of them do it differently. This is why the numbers vary so much.

[Frances]

11. Excellent point

The turnout has been so much higher than predicted.

Plus I believe there are too many voters deciding at the last minute to have a completely accurate poll.

I think the reason so many people are having trouble making up their minds is that both of our candidates are outstanding.

[my3boyz]

6. All of them are wrong!!! I support Obama 100% and I would

love for it to be true but I honestly don't have faith in any of these polls.

[Kittycat]

7. I'm splitting the difference, and calling it a tie.

[Bucky]

9. Survey USA is crap. They use auto calling

Imagine the MoE of a poll conducted by GrovelBot.

Survey USA gets it right a significant amount of the time--enough that they can justify staying in business at their rock-bottom, nil labor costs rates. But when they get it wrong, they tend to totally blow it. This may be the case here.

[NJSecularist]

14. Link?

Do you have a link that confirms that?

Doesn't Zogby and Gallup use autocalling?

[Bucky]

17. SurveyUSA says that on their own website on their methodology page

Zogby and Gallup may have auto-dialing features in their phone banks, but they use human interviewers to gather actual survey data. SurveyUSA actually asks respondents to punch buttons on their phones for responses--which is cheaper and faster, but tends to skew results toward population groups that don't mind interacting with robots.

[sandnsea]

10. The people who MAKE THE PHONE CALLS

Tomorrow, 22 states across the country are holding Democratic caucuses and primaries.

You can help Get Out The Vote in these crucial contests by calling fellow supporters from your own home.

Use our online calling tool and make a difference today:

http://my.barackobama.com/feb5calls

When Michelle and I talked about my running for president, one of the core goals we both had for this campaign was to leave the political process better off than we found it.

You have challenged conventional thinking and built a grassroots movement for change that is sweeping this country.

I have no doubt that the election tomorrow will be close, but you can help ensure that as many people as possible participate.

Make calls using our online calling tool and help Get Out The Vote:

http://my.barackobama.com/feb5calls

I believe that this movement for change can do more than just win an election. Together, we can transform this country.

Thank you for being part of this,

Barack

[AlinPA]

12. Most polls are garbage. nt

[Nimrod2005]

13. Zogby is the best!

[Azathoth]

16. SUSA is a robocalling firm

I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw them.