Ordinarily I would be quite skepical o Zogby CA polling results

[Perky]

but this is a rolling average poll and it is the secod day of seeing a 13 point gap. That would mean his polling method would have to be way off... and that seems really doubtful to me

I doubt it is as big as he says it is....but note that there is still 14% undecided and they typically are going to break decidedly for the perceived non-incumbent.

We will see

[William769]

1. Oh why don't you just be truthful?

It favors your candidate. Do you think people are that stupid?

[Perry Logan]

2. Obama people are as predictable as the sunrise.

[EFerrari]

4. Apparently not because Clinton didn't see them coming. n/t

[Perry Logan]

7. I knew you'd say that.

[EFerrari]

9. You're especially prescient today!

:)

Good luck to your candidate today. She's also my mom's. If Hillary loses, I'm going into hiding because she'll be so disappointed.

[Perry Logan]

10. Good luck to you, too. I'm more a Hillary defender than a supporter, in any case.

[Perky]

5. and it does not favor your's so you automatically go on attack

[William769]

6. Who's attacking?

Just pointing out the truth. Did you actually read what you wrote?

[Sulawesi]

11. You're attacking, the post is clear...polls consistent so believable, but OP is a healthy skeptic...

[William769]

12. Only when it's to her benefit.

Anyone one with half a brain can see that. So whats your excuse?

[Perky]

14. Oh good grief.

[William769]

15. Say it again! Charlie Brown.

[Sulawesi]

16. Oh yes, and I see you posting all the time from a reasoned, neutral stance.

[William769]

17. I never said I did.

Thats the difference, I don't lie about it.

[Sulawesi]

19. The OP didn't lie, they want to believe the polling but are skeptical...

and you went off the deep end. Enough though...you have at it...

[William769]

21. And it's also you candidate so it is easy to see why you are after me in this thread.

Have at it baby, the truth always prevails.

[JCMach1]

3. Another poll problem: Romney up by 7%

"Romney continued to lead, however, in delegate-rich California, with 40% support in that state, to McCain’s 33%...."

If he is right, diety bless him... However, call me suspicious of his sampling in CA.

[totodeinhere]

22. Yes, I'd love to get Romney in the general.

Easy pickings.

[RL3AO]

8. This is what happens with daily polls. It sacrafices (sp) accuracy.

[karynnj]

13. That it is a rolling average leads to it being there for more than one day.

What you see is an average of the last n days. If there is an outlier - say an unusually high point that statistically will occur occasionally, then that point will affect the estimate for n days. However the difference is only roughly 1/n of the outlier minus the average without it.

[Sulawesi]

18. I thought the OP was reporting a 13-point edge in the second consecutive single day of polling

If not, then you are correct, with the added caveat that if it is one day, that one day was super bowl sunday.

[karynnj]

20. Sorry - I likely misread it - I agree with you that it is likely an amazing shift if it is the raw

date. That would show that HRC had a lot of very soft support.

[Araxen]

23. I don't put any faith in the polls

But that rally with Oprah/Maria/etc... may have had a big effect in the last couple days. We'll know tonight I guess.