Running strong in red states means: COATTAILS ....

[scheming daemons]

...i.e. Bigger Dem majorities in congress.


Look.... Obama will win all the "blue" states like California and New York in the fall. *ANY* Democrat would.

But by running strong in "red" states, it means that Dems pick up more seats in the house and senate.


Obama will win all of the traditional "blue" states... but he'll win more of the red ones than Hillary would.... and even the ones he doesn't win, he'll run strong enough to have serious coattails.


Obama is the 50-state candidate..... Hillary has less margin for error, since she is JUST the blue-state candidate.

[caligirl]

1. Obama plus who then. Obama Hillary could be unbeatable or

would she still unite the conservatives if she were to get the VP slot? Obama is expected to do very well, better than Hillary in the next round of voting. He has the funding and hers is limited and not renewable until the GE.Does he need her for the blue states,or could he go for someone else, assuming he pulls the delegates to be the front runner after the next round of voters. Just some thinking.

[Straight Shooter]

2. Tennessee is most definitely not a blue state.

Nor is Arkansas, but I discount that because it's her home state, just as I discount Illinois as it is figuratively Barack's home state.

I don't know how Tennessee views McCain, but they tend to be pretty religious and Dobson nixed McCain, so the GOP may stay home and not vote, thus giving the state to Hillary in the primary.

There is nothing logical or conventional about this election year. Nothing. Throw all the old rules out the window. Nothing applies.

[jackson_dem]

3. Kerry won every red state primary except SC , NC and Oklahoma

How did he do in red states in the general?

[scheming daemons]

5. Not applicable...... half the turnout, and contests were already decided...

Kerry had no ground game in those states... he won most of them after the nomination was decided.

...there was no groundswell of turnout in those states for Kerry like there is for Obama this year.

He's pulling votes in parts of states that nobody has before.


He's leading a political realignment in this country..... it's Howard Dean's 50-state strategy that worked so well in '06.

Obama is running that same campaign as in '06. He'll make McCain have to spend money and time in red states - especially since the conservatives in those states already don't like him.

Just forcing McCain to spend money and time in the deep south is a *WIN*, even if Obama ends up losing the states.

[jackson_dem]

8. Kerry won 9 out of 10 Super Tuesday states in 2004

It wasn't over until March. He won Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, Missouri, Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Virginia, DC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Idaho, Utah, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, and Rhode Island when the nomination was being contested. He lost only South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Vermont during this time. He won in all regions of the country and showed more primary strength than Obama. Obama did best in red states. Kerry won in red, blue, and swing states.

I don't know where this association of Obama with Dean's 50 strategy comes from. He won't run a 50 state campaign. He has no shot in places like Alabama and Wyoming in the general. A reasonable argument can be made that he can compete in more states than Hillary but I doubt he will run a 50 state campaign. That was always more suited to congressional races anyway.

[Zynx]

4. Red state Democrats are quite a different animal from red state voters in general.

Also, Hillary did win Arizona, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

[scheming daemons]

7. Obama is more likely to force McCain to spend money/time in traditional red states...

....especially since McCain is not liked by conservatives in those states.


Obama could make McCain spend time campaigning in states like Virginia (a red state that has been trending purple).... a state where Hillary doesn't have a chance in hell.

[splat]

6. The slam against McCain is he won states he'll lose in the general -- same problem