The Red States that voted in this primary season that we MAY be able to turn Blue

[Tom Rinaldo]

There have been 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses held in quite a few States so far that George W. Bush won in 2004, but many of them are states where we got thoroughly spanked last time around. Does anyone think that the Democrat running in November can bring Wyoming into our column after we lost it by 69% to 29% in 2004? Or how about Alabama? We only lost by 63% to 37% there in 2004. And to be even handed, consider Oklahoma. George W. Bush won that state by 66% to 34% in 2004, does anyone believe that Clinton or Obama can win it for us in 2008? We can make progress in those States, and progress is a good thing, but we will not win in 2008 because of them. If we win any of those states it will only be because our Democratic candidate will be in the midst of a landslide of historic proportions.

The following are the States where Democratic primaries or caucuses have already been held this year, where George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by a margin less than 15%:

Iowa, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, and New Mexico.

Of those contests two were extremely close, with Obama and Clinton separated by less than one percent of the votes counted. Obama won a squeaker in Missouri and Clinton now appears to be doing the same in New Mexico. Regardless of the actual outcomes in those two states they are virtual ties.

Obama had solid victories in Iowa and Colorado. Clinton had solid (popular vote) victories in Nevada, Florida, Arkansas, Arizona,and Tennessee. The most important swing state of them all which broke for Bush in 2004 looms ahead; Ohio. Currently Hillary Clinton holds a substantial lead over Barack Obama in the State that delivered the Presidency to George W. Bush in 2004.

[dmallind]

1. Good summary

and belies the hysteria that either of the candidates is particularly a shoe in or a no hoper for GE. Both do quite well in a good selection of swing states.

[Blue_In_AK]

2. If Obama is our nominee and McCain the Republicans'

Alaska could conceivably go Democratic in November. Approximately 8,000 people participated in the Democratic caucus, 12,000 in the Republicans' "presidential preference poll." Obama took 75% (roughly 6,000 votes) in the caucuses, while McCain barely broke 1,000 with the Republicans (Mitt took over 40%). We have 54% independents here, some of whom have said that while they voted in the Republican poll to stop McCain, they will consider Obama in the general. The best hope here is for an Obama/McCain race.

We only have three electoral votes which isn't much, but it could make a difference in a tight race.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. I think that is a very long long shot

Not impossible I guess because it is hard to call anything truly impossible.

[dmallind]

4. I agree - OH and FL should be big targets

And while HIllary won FL and is ahead in OH for now, I expect Obama would do just as well in the GE. His disadvnatage with Latinos is compared to Clinton and I doubt it will hold up compared to McCain.

[TheDonkey]

14. Think MO or OH. We need to drop FL and their corrupt voting practices

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. It would be foolish to write off Florida

There is much more suspicion out in the world now about election tampering. I am not saying that would prevent any from occurring, but it would be hard for the G.O.P to effect the results by more than 2 or 3 percentage points and not get caught. It is possible for Democrats to win Florida now, in the current political climate, by a greater margin than that.

[dmallind]

27. What? Why on earth would any party "drop" so many EV?

We can "punish" the supposed corruption of millions of voters in an empty gesture that will be soon only as clueless idiocy rather than any meaningful or effective indictment of the behavior of a tiny minority of them, or we can win.

Pretty easy call.

[Blue_In_AK]

5. What? The "making a difference" part

or the Alaska going Democratic part? Alaska is going more and more purple all the time. People are thoroughly disgusted with Ted Stevens and especially Don Young, we gained seats in the state legislature last year, and the senate majority is bipartisan with a Democratic leader. Even our governor who calls herself a Republican is extremely populist and is sticking it to the oil companies and pushing ethical reforms.

People forget that Alaska was once a Democratic state (and territory before that). It was only the influx of Texans and Oklahomans and the "oil guys" in the '70s and '80s that pushed us into the Republican column. Now people are starting to wake up after the VECO/oil corruption scandals of the past year.

It feels real good to be a Democrat in Alaska these days.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Fair enough.

Things sometimes can change quickly. Even though Bush won Alaska by 61% to 36% in 2004 (Nader got 2%) I gather a lot of folks up your way are getting fed up with Republicans. I wish that Senate Seat went blue in 2006, but since then it seems the G.O.P. has taken some more hits in Alaska.

Keep up the good fight!

[LiberalFighter]

8. I don't see Alaska going red.

Whenever I calculated electoral votes in the past Alaska ALWAYS went into the red side.

[Blue_In_AK]

10. The operative words there are "in the past."

There has been a huge shake-up up here over the past year. Republican state representatives are actually sitting in federal prisons at this very moment on corruption charges -- long sentences, too, over five years. Another one is awaiting sentencing, another one awaiting trial. We hear that there are 14 or 15 more ongoing investigations here in the state on corruption charges, all involving Republicans. Ted Stevens and Don Young are both under investigation. Don Young alone spent over $800,000 last year on legal fees (out of his campaign contributions, which has a lot of people upset).

We may not flip to the Democratic column completely in 2008, but don't be surprised if we send down a Democratic congressperson to DC. We have two very strong candidates on our side in that race, either of which I would be happy to vote for, while Don's Republican challenger doesn't seem to be getting that much traction.

Just don't count us out. Politics is not a precise science.

ed. I assume you meant you don't see Alaska going "blue."

[LiberalFighter]

11. It is an ongoing process. Just as you possibly indicated there has to be

steps taken before it happens. For it to happen out of the blue no way. First step or steps would be a Democratic congressperson and/or Governor.

The other thing is that regardless of who the candidate is whatever happens in Alaska will have to rely on the activists in there to turn it.

And yes, of course I meant blue.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. I think it is important to keep all of the "Red State" spin in perspective

The National Democratic would be thrilled to find a candidate who can win in Florida and Ohio. Arizona and Tennessee would be much appreciated gravy. Oklahoma and Alabama would make our side ecstatic under the circumstances.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. Unfortunately, McCain probably keeps VA red, but it's a State to consider

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Virginia is definately worth considering

You are right that it is a state that is suited for McCain, but if the tide is flowing Democratic in 2008, we could still win there - it is more conceivable than many other Red States at least, even if it is suited to McCain.

[TheDonkey]

13. TN or AK will not turn blue. Where do you get that? If Gore could not handle TN no way will HC

or Obama. I do not believe AK is ready to flip. AZ will also be hard with McCain's machine (ie cheats) there.

Iowa, NV, FL, CO, MO, NM could flip I agree.

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. Tennessee is a real stretch

But it increasingly is becoming more cosmopolitian. It isn't deep south. Virginia was once unthinkable also, Tennessee may come back into play at some point soon, if not 2008. Harold Ford Jr only lost his Senate bid there in 2006 bt 50.7% to 48%.

[rucky]

15. You make a good case, but what I want to know is this...

What's counting for the increase in turnout, and who are these people supporting?

The dems will vote dems, but there's a new wave of voters participating. Whoever has the most of them has the best shot, IMO.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Two factors. You put your finger on one

New voter participation is a key factor. But "new" is too narrow a term. Increased turn out actually includes people who haven't voted in the past as well as people who haven't been dependable voters in the past. One of the great unfinished stories of this election will be whether Barack Obama brings in more of the above voters with his future, unity, and hope based appeal coupled with his appeal to African Americans in particular, or whether Hillary Clinton will energize the womwn's vote like it never has been before while appealing to bread and butter roots Democrats who identified with Bill Clinton but who may have had trouble voting for a "patricaian" John Kerry last time around.

Then there are the soccor turned "security moms" who just felt safer with a Republican President in dangerous times. If Bush were running again we would have no trouble with that - he is totally discredited. But John McCain does not carry the personal baggage to many outside of core Democratic circles that Bush does. I have always said we can take McCain down on issues, many who voted for Bush in 2000 or 2004 are prepared to return to the Democratic Party now, or support Democrats in some cases for the first time, because of the issues. The Republican Party is discredited on issues. The only way we can fail to bring new voters into our Party is if the Republican candidate can cast sufficient doubt about the the ability of the Democratic candidate to handle the heavy responsibility of being President of the United States.

[Blue_In_AK]

22. Alaskans turned out in much greater numbers this year

because our caucus was moved up and people actually felt like they could make a difference. In years past, the caucus was held so late in the season that the nominee was already picked by the time they got around to us. Voting is sometimes suppressed here in general elections too because the media is already projecting a winner before our polls close. By the time it's 8:00 p.m. here, it's already midnight on the east coast. That's discouraging to a lot of people, especially those who don't get a chance to vote until they get off work.

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. The fact that every contest matters now

is driving higher turnout all across the country.

It must be really frustrating about the time zones, but it's seems impossible to find a solution to it other than getting up really early to vote.

[BootinUp]

18. I noted this as well Tom last night, but not with such detail

It clearly shows that Hillary does have appeal to rural voters in those states that count in a GE.

[David Zephyr]

20. Terry McAuliffe pissed away an entire election on Florida.

And what a disastrous waste that was.

That said Obama and Hillary drove nearly 6 million more Democrats to the polls than Republicans in a friggin' primary when our party's voters usually don't even show up. That's the headline. And here we agree.

We should focus less on Florida and more on the following easier states to pick off: Missouri, West Virginia, Colorado, Virginia, Louisiana, Nevada and especially Ohio. Even Montana and some of the western states might be easier (and less expensive) than Florida.

And the bottom line is that Clinton and Obama have proved that the two of them bring out millions and millions of voters. If we ignore that gift horse by complaining about the teeth, we are simply out of our friggin' minds.

Obama and Clinton must be on our ticket. If they are, we will not only take the White House, we will sweep in such majorities in both houses in Congress as to change the nation for a generation.

I hope you are with me on this, Tom.

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. I know that a ticket that contained bout Clinton and Obama would be very strong

and I of course reversed the order, but that way it's been written both ways now:)

If those two can work it out to make it happen, assuming they both show a willingness and inclination to acutally be able to work together, first on the campaign trail and then after they were in office, that would truly be great.

I think if that proves not to be possible that we have a good shot of winning under either one of them, though opinions (including ours) may differ as to who would have the better shot.

We have to avoid overly counting on Florida, but if indications there are positive we have to be able to exploit that or at the very least make Republicans seriously divert major resourses of their own there.

Arkansas is another good chance for a pick up, in addition to the states you mentioned, along with New Mexico.

[Tom Rinaldo]

24. Anyone up for giving this a 5th Recommend so it can stay around for reference?

I think this sorting of recent primary/caucus contests has some usefulness to discussion both on this and other threads.

[robbedvoter]

25. According to Palast New Mexico was always "fake" red - check those machines

Goes without saying about Ohio and Florida - but don't tell Kerry that.

[Auntie Bush]

26. Thanks Tom

If more people knew this...they'd wise up and vote for Hillary.

[Tom Rinaldo]

28. Your Welcome

At least people should take a hard look at this

[David Zephyr]

29. You make a great case for an Obama/Clinton ticket.

;-)

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. LOL. You are nothing if not persistent David n/t